The final hurdle

A look ahead to this weekend’s top action by Fergal Nolan aka @IrishRugbyBlog…

With 3 teams left for the crown, all eyes will be on Paris come 5pm. Can England spring a monstrous points haul over Italy? Can Ireland take a French side on home soil – a feat accomplished just once in 42 years? Tout sera révélé.

If you could write a fairy tale ending then this was it. Ireland trounced Italy and one man was at the centre of it all. Brian O’ Driscoll. In my weekend preview I earmarked him for a try. He did everything but score. Directly set up 2 tries and indirectly another. His work-rate was fantastic. His passion sublime. He never fails to deliver and I feel this weekend will be the same.

The first 40mins of the Italian game didn’t yield nice viewing. Although, like I noted before, we would pull away in the second half. How many times have we heard “We wore them down as the game progressed”? This was the underlying success of the game. Schmidt has his players holding possession (75%) and wore the Italians down. After a Six Nations record 208 tackles, they were well and truly worn down. They failed to score a single point in second half. We had the luxury of subbing players and unloading our bench. Strength and depth is abundance in this team, it will stand to us in the cup games.

Looking to the game this weekend, it is a major task. My confidence is off putting. Confident going to Stade de France…perhaps I should look at the statistics!! In the last 12 years France have only lost 3 home games in the six nations. If we can overcome that, how about this – we have won once there in 42 years. 42 years. These figures are daunting, so let’s boost our enthusiasm. In the last two years, we have drew with Les Bleus, both in Dublin and in Paris. In 2009 we beat them at home. In 2000 O’Driscoll stepped onto the scene. That day he scored a hat-trick and gave Ireland our first win since 1972. Tomorrow will be his last for Ireland, where the magic all began. That’s why I’m hopeful.

This is why I’m confident. France are not the side they used to be. They have the players, no doubt about that. What they don’t have is discipline. They lack structure. Individual players fail to show leadership and passion on the park. They have no game management. Phillipe Saint-Andre has chopped and changed the team from day one. By making these changes, the squad don’t have time to gel, and ultimately do not fully trust each other.

To sum it up, it’s the opposite of the Ireland team. We have conceded just 27 penalties in this tournament, France 36. Good discipline. We haven’t received any cards, France have one red and three yellow against them. Passion is brought to the pitch by every Irish player. I haven’t seen much by the French players, albeit moments of genius by their back-line. With so many leaders and with new ones evolving, the decision making of the men in green feeds into their game management. In contrast to the French team, Schmidt has retained the same starting 15 from day one, bar one or two injuries. They understand each other and therefore trust each other.

Like the Italian game, I believe Ireland will hold onto possession as much as possible. They have done so very successfully in the previous games. We will build on the phases and hope to create space for our back-line. If this proves ineffective, then retaining possession will be key as I believe we can gather penalties as the French get impatient.

Our kicking game must be accurate. We do not want the French back-line running at us, nor do we want them playing the kick and chase game. These are their biggest threats, and my greatest worry. If they create space they are extremely dangerous. I believe they will target Rob Kearney. From the two tries we have conceded, Kearney missed both tackles on the running man. Dulin and Huget are extremely fast paced with ball in hand. There will be some crucial match ups, I just hope Kearney wins those battles and comes out on top.

Looking at the set piece, I can envisage Ireland being dominant in the scrum. From our own scrums won, we have lost 2. France have lost 6, although Picamoles back in the pack is a boost. As the game progresses, utilisation of the bench will be important. The replacements in McGrath, Moore, Cronin, Henderson and Murphy provide optimism in the scrummage.

From the Schmidt era we have seen the line out and rolling maul being very effective. I can see us targeting their line out and being effective in controlling our own. France have had 39 line outs and lost 12. That’s a success rate of 69%. Ireland have had 57, lost 4. A success rate of 93%. If we don’t target this area I will be shocked. Clean ball from a stolen line out would provide a great attacking threat. Inside the French 22, a successful line out should see the driving maul being utilised. If Ireland can draw the French players in, we could create a try scoring opportunity like the final moments of the Welsh game.

Our partnership of O’ Driscoll and Darcy in the centre is a contrast to Basteraud and Fickou. While one duo fully trust, and understand each other, the other lacks that partnership. Like any relationship to be effective, communication is key. Defensively, Ireland have the upper hand here.

Sexton playing his rugby in France is very positive for this decider. He plays amongst these players. He understands their game. Scoring two tries v Italy mirrored his fantastic performance. If a certain 13 wasn’t retiring then it was his Man of the Match. Sexton is crucial in the management of the game. If his kicking is up to his standard then I have no fears.

We have conceded just 29 points in this tournament. France have conceded 78. With two tries conceded and France seven, the numbers show how well organised and disciplined this Irish squad are. In total, there have been 710 passes by the men in green. 485 by our French counterparts. These points mirror the management of the Irish coaching team – holding ball and building phases.

The French are like a puzzle with no instructions. If they can fit the pieces together they can really turn it on. If we mirror our performances to date and kick intelligently the we have a great chance.

We can turn their weapons against them. We should bring our intensity game and hit the ground running (like against the All Blacks). Get a lead at half time and the French crowd will turn against the team. Get under the players’ skin in the hope to yield penalties, and ultimately, points on the scoreboard. If things go horribly wrong for France, the guillotine will drop on French rugby and Saint-Andre….d’être libéré.

As I have outlined it won’t be easy. The statistics against us are daunting but the statistics of the tournament so far are extremely encouraging. If any side can win, it’s this one.

With the magical Brian O’ Driscoll signing out for one last time, fair tales can come through. Ireland by 6 plus.

Fergal is on twitter as @IrishRugbyBlog

Round 4 preview

A look ahead to this weekend’s top action by Fergal Nolan aka @IrishRugbyBlog…

Ireland v Italy

Schmidt hasn’t rung the changes in a more or less unchanged side to face Italy on Saturday. Henderson comes in for the injured O’Mahony and Ruddock on the bench, as expected. I am a bit dismayed there isn’t one or two more changes. For once, I believe Sexton shouldn’t be starting. Whether his thumb is injured or not I believe Jackson should get game time, with Madigan as cover. Johnny should be rested for the French game. An aggravation of the thumb would be a major setback. I can’t fathom how the FFR claimed he would be side-lined for up to 6 weeks…let’s hope he isn’t after today!

Schmidt is sticking to a side that has performed consistently and excelled brilliantly in the set piece. It’s only his seventh game in charge, mixing it up at this period would not be a wise move. Stick to what you know. I would have liked to have Zebo on the bench. I’m counter-arguing with myself, but he could bring that flair onto the pitch. I respect Schmidt for keeping the players ; choosing a fringe player over the consistent 15 could be a major confidence blow at this late stage. (Take Trimble for example, didn’t feature last season, and now , given the chance, he is really stepping up the mark).

Sergio Paisse’s absence is a shock. He’s a great player and it’s somewhat disheartening that he will never win silverware with Italy. If Parisse was dropped, it’s a bad decision….I would have expected such from Brunel’s French counterpart!! If he’s injured and just being rested, with one eye on England next week, then I won’t complain. The half back pairing of Orquera and Tebaldi is a boost. Orquera is a good fly half who will tactically kick better than Allan. The Italians won’t be afraid to play some rugby either – the likes of Campagnaro and McLean will dance and dart with ball in hand. They will show this championship that they can play a different game, without the might of their talisman.

With both Parisse and Zanni missing, I can see Ireland being dominant in the scrum (injury wise or not). Brunel has started some heavy forwards in the hope of targeting this area but our scrum is growing with every match up. The powerful rolling maul will be utilised more frequent than v England. The line out will be another area where we can provide the backs with clean ball. From this, I am anticipating some tantalising plays. I believe the first half will be physical and we should hope to tire the Italians. The second half should be more open with back-line moves echoed from the training ground.

The man in charge will play his part too. The vibrant Owens provides clear instructions and is decisive in his decision making. He lets the game flow which will suit Ireland.

With the end of an era in one Brian O Driscoll, the charged emotion will be mirrored in the team performance. We have an excellent set piece. This is the perfect game to execute that finishing touch and build up the scoreboard. I’m hoping the players will be more clinical and less robotic as the game progresses. I believe they will read the game accordingly and adapt as they build confidence. Ireland by 26, with GOD BOD on the score-sheet.

France v Scotland

If this is the weekend for coaches making rash decisions, then it’s clearly mirrored in Scott Johnson . After shipping Kelly Brown in the previous two games he is reinstated in the starting 15….as captain. If some of these rugby sides were consistent, and had acute coaches, then we’d witness teams that can play to their true potential.

The visiting side have players side-lined for numerous reasons, but still have individual class. The Maxime backline (9-12) will cause the Scots trouble. If Dunbar can play like he did againist Italy he will give the French some pain in their derrière. Let’s hope the kicking of Hogg and Weir is on form and Scotland can contain the French in their own half.

If ever there was an ample time to lick salt in the French wounds, it’s now. With the talisman leading the backrow with Beattie and Denton, there’s no shortage of passion and determination. Unfortunately, I think the individual talent of the French will progress. France by 5.

England v Wales

The big one. I’m really looking forward to this. The winner will progress to the final round knowing a championship is there to be won. The looser is out of the running. With so many physical match ups, and individual flair, this game will be a joy to watch.

Like Ireland, England’s one replacement is enforced in the backrow. The injured Vunipola makes way for Ben Morgan. This is more or less a like for like replacement.

Meanwhile Gatland has shipped in Jonathan Davies from his four month absence. In contrasting circumstances Alun Wyn Jones returns to the starting 15. Luke Charteris aggravated his neck so Jake Ball takes his place. Webb remains at scrum half. He performed very well against France, Gatland is correct in retaining him.

These two sides have shrewd coaches and great rivalry. The atmosphere will be electric. North, Cuthbert, Davies vs Nowell, Burell, May. The Lions Player of the Tournament (Halfpenny) vs The Player of The Tournament, so far (Mike Brown). Enticing.

The English have built a fortress of Twickenham. They are not going to let the Welsh soldiers annihilate them like last year. If they play like they did against Ireland, and keep their composure, it’s theirs to be won. Meanwhile, if the Welsh bring that power, and create the space, then it’s very hard to overlook them. I feel the English will just about edge this one. Home advantage will be a factor. Lancaster has built a well disciplined, youthful side, with individual finesse. Their determination should take it. England by 2.

Fergal is on twitter as @IrishRugbyBlog

…In The Chariot’s Wake

Some tough decisions ahead for Joe after Twickenham, writes Fergal Nolan…

I’m not totally dismayed by our loss on Saturday.

We were consistent in areas of importance such as the scrum , line out and maul (when it was finally utilised). We were inconsistent in our decision making. I believe we also lacked that clinical finish which cost us the game. England deserved to win but they were moments where we had them rattled, namely in the first ten minutes of the second half. We failed to build on this and ultimately lost momentum.

As I noted in my preview, pre-planned moves direct from the training camp were clearly evident in the game. They had the Schmidt aurora about them. Great to see. My only qualm – the players were too robotic. All good when the moves materialise but the players have to get a feel for the game, and be spontaneous. This impromptu manner was somewhat lacking in the game. 

When the moves do work they can be a joy to watch. Dummy runs from a line-out provided the backs with room on the outside channels. The English defence stretched like their armed men on the fields of Wytschaete. The Irish armoury built on this in the second half. The well worked Irish try was executed to perfection. Expect to see more of these plays with a more clinical finish under Schmidt.

As in all evenly matched games, decision making is key. I alluded to this in my weekend preview. What I didn’t envisage was the governing to be off in our most important player. Johnny Sexton. If it was psychological, concussion, or tiredness, his kicking was well below par. (If Sexton was tired Jackson should have come on sooner but I believe Schmidt rates Sexton tiers above Jackson – he shouldn’t have over-reliance on one choice out half). A fly half controls the game. The polar opposite of control is chaos. I won’t say Sexton caused chaos – that’s too harsh, but you can understand my point. Cause and effect.

At the time of writing Racing Metro’s medical board have stated that Sexton will be out for ten days to six weeks. The IRFU are saying otherwise. Perhaps this is a ploy by the French to outwit Sexton into not playing against Les Bleus….This is the chance to have Jackson start against Italy (the injury has reinstated him starting) with Madigan as replacement. As I stated above, we cannot solely rely on one player in one position, others must get proper game time at this standard. Blessing in disguise?

Perhaps I’m being too critical, and maybe, just maybe this English team are that good. Evenly matched? A neutral watching the game would have said the same. They did deserve to win but they have areas to improve on just like us. Like our Welsh counterparts, the English have blooded big centres and wingers. They are extremely physical and hard to break down. This was clearly evident in the match.

We are lacking that physical touch and finesse in our back-line. We were lacking that player who can change the game. Albeit we had the upper hand in the bench but not that x-factor. The English have that flair. Mike Brown. He is England’s sweet chariot. Physical, Intelligent, Spontaneous, Skillful. I do admire him. The full back will be the player of the tournament. Conor O’Shea may have weeped as Brown pulled off those classy moves but inside he was smiling…just a little! The Irishman can be grateful to have such a player on his side.

My predictions were off in the Wooden Spoon match up. I did foresee the Welsh-France game to play the way it did although I didn’t see Wales winning by that score. French rugby is a mess and Ireland playing them for a potential Championship decider is not as daunting as it used to be. They lack structure and heart. Sheer talent spreads across the squad board but it’s not being utilised. The potential is there and I’m afraid if they do decide to turn up, they can really turn it on. For the Ireland game, Fofana will take no part. Morgan Parra will be back after his suspension (it would seem this is a regular occurrence in the Top 14 lately). He’s a dangerous half back who could inject some game management into this French side.

Schmidt will have some tough decisions in the run up to the Italian game. With a potential championship decider the week after, we need to fill the scoreboard. The Irish side need to play with ease and iron out the cracks. Schmidt needs to utilise the full squad. He has the weaponry at his disposal. Perhaps a physical Henshaw on the bench to cover 13 and 15? Bowe/Zebo to come in on the wing? Perhaps a talented Marshal in centre, alongside O’Driscoll for his last game in Ireland? Mix the old with the new. If the new generation are given time and experience, the future looks bright. Like the English team, we need to mould these players. Unlike the battle in Twickenham, we will need to provide better governing of the game. Hopefully we bring that added finesse. This time, we will not, be left, in the chariot’s wake…

Fergal is on twitter as @IrishRugbyBlog

From one battle to another….

Please welcome Fergal Nolan to HoR2 and be sure and visit his new blog.  Here’s his thoughts on the weekend ahead…

First up Wales entertain France in the magical Millenium stadium. I feel a backlash is on the cards. Wales will be reeling from the defeat to Ireland in what was a fairly one sided affair, to put it lightly. France have no structure but they have individuals who ooze talent and sheer class. If only Phillipe San Andre had a proper tactical team structure, we’d be all shaking in our rugby boots. The Welsh on home turf will be well rapped by Mr Warren G. He will have the team well regulated (I’ll get my coat…). Should be an exciting game, especially seeing two tanks collide in that of North and Bastareaud. Look forward to a try fest. Wales by single digits.

Italy v Scotland. The only thing I’m looking forward to in this is the Italian national anthem. Joking aside, Scottish rugby is in a mess much worse than Murrayfield two weeks ago. Dave Denton, the Scottish No. 8 doesn’t start. A bad move in my view. He’s a good player and performs to the max when asked. The Italians, although beaten by the French, are playing good structured rugby…if only they had a decent kicker. They keep it simple. They are physical. They are a well drilled team. With the magnificent Parisse leading the team, expect heart and passion. Also expect the two try six nations debutant Campagnaro to feature quite a lot. Italy by 10.

Then there is the big one. England v Ireland. I could write for 80 minutes on this match up. Both teams are well structured in terms of defence and set pieces. Lancaster has a youthful and evolving team, gearing towards their home RWC. Schmidt has tailored a revived Irish squad. Tactically, Schmidt had it spot on against Wales. No doubt he will have a strategic game plan for the English. In a sense of irony, I believe, the forever daunting English scrum will be targeted. We have the advantage, especially with the formidable Dan Cole out injured. (Although, the weather is for dry, fine weather, rain and a weathered pitch would be more favourable for scrums).

From reading another analysis of the game , I concur that Sexton and Murray will need to be on top of their game, acute and aware at all times. They will look to dink the ball behind Danny Care, as from previous games there seems to be space in this area to be taken advantage of. This won’t work on every occasion so it must be done effectively. On another note, the English backs are elusive in attack but lack overall game experience. Our centres are more experienced and provide a greater reading of the game. This is crucial.

Conceding only nine points in our last two games, our defence will be key. Plumtree and Kiss have done a fantastic job so far. Expect some unseen back line moves. We have an experienced side who have won Triple Crowns, a Grand Slam and European Cup titles. Let’s emulate on this talent and provide a game plan so effective the English have no match. A simple kick or moment of magic could decide this game. Let’s hope it’s for the men in green. Ireland by a score with my green tinted glasses.

Fergal is on twitter as @IrishRugbyBlog