Super Rugby–Week 4 preview

Time for @shumpty77 to turn his crystal ball to the next round of Super Rugby…

Last week saw the continued rise from the ashes of last season of the Auckland Blues, the Reds sneak to win against the unlucky Hurricanes, the Chiefs confirm their favouritism for the whole competition with a dominant display against the Cheetahs and the Force continue only the path to not winning game this season which now seems to have to the feeling of the inevitable about it.

This week’s games are again replete with local derbies as well as a fixture that some pundits may have been tipping to be the final of this year’s competition when the Stormers host the Chiefs at Cape Town.

Hurricanes v Crusaders, Wellington

The Crusaders, having only played one game in the first three weeks of the season, have again gotten off to their traditional slow start to the season. They will be very disappointed with their performance with their performance against the Blues where their much vaunted attack was as penetrative as a plastic spoon. Dan Carter was a bit down on form last week and will again be vital to the chances of the Crusaders in this fixture.

The Hurricanes have been unlucky thus far this season when injuries cruelled their momentum in their first fixture and then were denied by the TMO against the Reds. They showed a significant lack of composure in their last fixture and were unable to convert basically 100% possession in the Reds half into points despite numerous attempts. Conrad Smith had the look of a very angry man at the end of the Reds fixture and will have his team primed for this contest.

The battle between Carter and Barrett will be a highlight of this game. The Hurricanes have shown promise in their first two games of the season but have lacked composure and attacking flair at key moments. The Crusaders, despite their poor start last week and the name McCaw missing from their team sheet, are a quality lineup and I expect them to be more composed at those keys moments and win this game.

Prediction: Crusaders by 8

Rebels v Reds, Melbourne

The Rebels are yet to record a victory this season and whilst they were competitive against the Waratahs last week they again did not play out the full 80 minutes. This week presents another tough test for them and this fixture has now been made all the tougher by the withdrawal of Kurtley Beale for the next month. The hole left by Beale will rest more weight on the narrow shoulders of James O’Connor who will need to step up to be the principal attacking option for the Rebels.

The Reds bounced back from their first game loss away to the Brumbies with two fairly unconvincing wins at homes against the Waratahs and the Hurricanes. The Reds are still without their injured leaders Genia and Horwill but welcome back Anthony Faingaa to the midfield. Liam Gill was dynamic last week and with Ed Quirk and Jake Schatz is forming one of the most formidable back rows in the competition. That back row will be looking to again dominate at the break down to lay a strong foundation for the enigmatic Quade Cooper.

The Rebels late fade outs in games so far this season is a worry and if they stumble late against the Reds they will be punished. The battle between Liam Gill and defector Scott Higginbotham will be a highlight of this fixture. The Reds will have too much class in this game though I expect it to be closer than many think.

Prediction: Reds by 9

Highlanders v Cheetahs, Invercargill

In the early Saturday afternoon game the rested Highlanders host the Cheetahs at Rugby Park in Invercargill. Coming off the bye last round the Highlanders will be looking to avenge their round 2 loss to the Chiefs before their adoring home crowd. They will play an attacking brand of football in this fixture but will also be looking to the experienced Hosea Gear and Ma’a Nonu for some more composure in attack which was sorely lacking against the Chiefs.

The Cheetahs were belted by the Chiefs last weekend, but only after they had resisted the Chiefs for the whole of the first half. These second half fade outs from the Cheetahs have become a common problem for the Cheetahs when they abroad. They have only made one change to the team that played last week with Heinrich Brussow returning to the bench. Johan Goosen will again be the focal point in attack for the Cheetahs and if they are to have any hope in this game he will need to play the game of his Super 15 career.

The Highlanders at home looking for redemption after round 1 are irresistible in this game and if the Cheetahs have another late game fade out in the deep south of New Zealand the Highlanders could raise a half century in this game.

Prediction: Highlanders by 21

Brumbies v Waratahs, Canberra

In another local derby, the Brumbies return to competition play after a bye last week against their neighbours the Waratahs at Canberra Stadium. The Waratahs come into this fixture off the back of a win last week against the Rebels and will take some confidence from that performance. They will be without Wycliff Palu in this fixture and welcome the return of Wallaby Berrick Barnes for this game after he tore a PCL in the lead up to the season.

The Brumbies stocks in Australian rugby have continued to rise during the week with the signature of George Smith solidifying an already quality back row for the men from the nation’s capital. The battle of the forwards in this fixture will be willing and if David Pocock continues to dominate as he did before the bye the Brumbies have the class in back line to put a score on the Waratahs in this game. Jesse Mogg’s star continues to rise and there is now talk of him being in the frame for higher honours: his battle with Israel Folau will be a stark example of a journeyman challenging a superstar.

The Brumbies have been untroubled thus far this season and I don’t expect that to change here.

Prediction: Brumbies by 14

Stormers v Chiefs, Cape Town

Are we witnessing a preview of the grand final for Super 15 2013 in this round 4 fixture from Cape Town? Many think this to be the case however whether it is or it is not this is certainly the match of the round.

The Chiefs are in very good form having put ten tries past their opponents in their two fixtures to date and have shown yet again that they can score points from any part of the field. Their 20 minute onslaught that blew the Cheetahs out of the game was breath-taking in both its efficiency and flair and they will again be looking to get quick ball from their unheralded forward pack to allow their backline to run amok. Liam Messam has lambasted his team for their first half performance last week and they will be looking to put on an 80 minute performance in this game.

The Stormers are yet to open their account in 2013 having recorded losses to both the Bulls and the Sharks in rounds 2 and 3. Their season has been a direct contract to that of the Chiefs having only scored two tries in their first two games and not looking like scoring last week. Adding to the woe for the Stormers is news coming out of the Cape that they will be without Juan de Jongh and Jaco Taute for this fixture.

The Chiefs are the form team in the competition at the moment and it will take a massive improvement from the Stormers to succeed in this fixture. On current form I cannot go past the Chiefs here.

Prediction: Chiefs by 13

Kings v Sharks, Port Elizabeth

After a week off last week the Kings return to Super 15 action in a buoyant mood after their first up victory over the Western Force in the battle many expected to be for the wooden spoon. Despite that win a perusal of the team sheet for the Kings continues to fail to impress and news that Luke Watson may be struggling to make the team with injury will be a major worry for the Kings faithful. This game, to state the obvious, presents a much sterner challenge than their initial introduction to Super 15 play.

The Sharks come into this fixture also on a high after besting the Stormers in a fixture last week that was as dour as it was filled with tension. They possess a perfect record in Super 15 paly thus far and will again be looking to their Springbok filled forward pack to dominate in this fixture and lay a foundation for their backline which was starved of the ball and opportunities last week.

I cannot tip against the Sharks in this fixture though I again expect the Kings to lift in front of their home crowd particularly as this will be their first competition fixture against a conference member.

Prediction: Sharks by 23

Blues v Bulls, Auckland

The final match of the round would have been pencilled in by many as a win for the Bulls before the season started however 3 rounds into this competition the Blues have been nothing short of impressive and have earned the moniker of favourite for this game. Coming off the back of an excellent win against the Crusaders, Kirwan’s men will be looking to continue to play their expansive and confident style of play against the travelling Bulls.

The Bulls have failed to impress anyone so far, particularly last week when they were expected to dominate the Force and instead they only pulled away from the Force in the last 10 minutes of the game. In the 13 matches played between the two, the Bulls only won four, with one draw, but often lost heavily. In fact, the average score between the sides is 38-25. The Bulls start probably the toughest overseas tour for a South African team (they also play the Crusaders, Reds and Brumbies on this tour) here and will be hoping to get off to a good start here.

The Bulls are next to impossible to back here on form but there is also a part of me that is expecting the bubble of the Blues to burst. I do not think that will happen in this game though and thus I am tipping them to make it three wins from three starts here.

Prediction: Blues by 9

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Super Rugby–Week 3 preview

Six Super Rugby clashes this weekend for Stephen Humphreys to have a look at…

Round 2 of the Super 15 action last weekend was replete with upsets and it has been suggested to me by some that I should hang up my tipping spurs after only picking three of the winning teams last week. That is Super 15 rugby though and one of the reasons we all love it: it is unpredictable and, generally, the teams are fairly evenly matched.

A game I wrote off as being the worst match of the round proved interested and saw the Kings open their Super Rugby account with a win whilst the whipping boys of the New Zealand conference got the John Kirwan era off to a flying start at home. In Australia the Brumbies continued their impressive start to the season whilst the grudge match between Queensland and New South Wales was a game low a skill in patches but high on intensity.

This is another round of matches filled with conference derbies that should lead to some exciting rugby and no doubt more upsets!

Blues v Crusaders, Auckland

Keeping to the usual schedule, week 3 of Super 15 action gets underway in Auckland with the Blues hosting the Crusaders. The Crusaders, off the back of a bye last week make their first foray into Super Rugby this week. Many Crusaders fans will be using this game as the start of their countdown till the return of Richie McCaw however even without him Todd Blackadder’s men still look like a quality line-up. Indeed, any side with Dan Carter in it and Kieran Read at the helm ought be dismissed lightly only be fools.

The Blues produced the first upset of Super Rugby 2013 last week and this week will be looking to continue on their winning ways against their long time foes from the South Island. Piri Weepu was impressive last week and controlled the game for the Blues. His influence will be vital to the play the Blues and ultimately the outcome of this fixture.

The Blues pulled of an upset last week but I do not think they will best the Crusaders who will be primed for their first match of the season.

Prediction: Crusaders by 12

Waratahs v Rebels, Sydney

The Rebels travel up to Sydney for their third fixture in 2013 to face the Waratahs in this all Australian clash. The Waratahs were valiant in defeat against the Reds at Lang Park last week and threatened to steal an upset of their own when the score read 17-17 with less than 10 minutes to play. They have basically an all Wallaby forward pack and if that forward pack can lay a solid foundation the mix of youth and experience in the backline could score a few points here. They do need to sort out their goal kicking which was terrible last week.

James O’Connor takes on the captaincy of the Rebels this week and by the look of the Rebels lineup the result of this fixture may largely rest on his and Kurtly Beale’s shoulders. The Rebels showed very good form against the Australian benchmark in the Brumbies before being outclassed in the second half and they will be similarly dealt with by the Waratahs if they can not play out the full 80 minutes here.

The pressure of the goal kicking duties and captaincy may well prove too much for O’Conner and if he does not grapple well with his extra responsibilities then this looms as a danger game for the Rebels. If he is on song however this may be a danger game for their opposition! I think this might be a closer game than many expect with less than a try between the teams. The Waratahs get the nod from me only because of home field advantage.

Prediction: Waratahs by 6

Reds v Hurricanes, Brisbane

An unusually late start has been mandated by SANZAR for this fixture which is a shame because this game has the potential to be one of the matches of the round. The Hurricanes were lacklustre at best last week against the Blues and certainly have the player list to improve on that performance. They will be heartened by the news that Conrad Smith has crossed the Tasman for this game having passed a fitness test following his concussion last round.

The Reds continue their season again without the names Horwill and Genia on the team sheet but showed last week the combination of grit and flair in patches that saw them win the competition in 2011. Ed Quirk has replaced some bloke called Higginbotham so well that Reds fans have hardly noticed his absence and Quade Cooper showed last week that he has the ability to direct this team around the park.

The Reds are at home and they seem to continue to find ways to win at Lang Park and I do not expect this fixture to be any different. The Reds will not blow the Hurricanes off the park but will do enough to win here.

Prediction: Reds by 8

Chiefs v Cheetahs, Hamilton

The first Saturday fixture of Round 3 sees the Cheetahs make the long trek to Hamilton in the North Island to take on last season’s champions, the Chiefs. The Cheetahs made a horror start to their 2013 campaign and saw themselves on the loosing side of a 26-5 scoreline at one point against the Sharks. They remain one of the enigmas of this competition because on their day they have the look of a team that can defeat any opposition whilst at other times they look worse that the Force.

The Chiefs were in fine form last week to defeat the Highlanders in what was the match of the round albeit they will be concerned that they had so many points scored against them. This is a quality line up that plays an attacking and expansive style of game whilst also looking to dominate in the set pieces. If they get on top of the Cheetahs at the break down and in the set pieces and Aaron Cruden gets quality ball they could put a big score on the men from Bloemfontein

I think the Cheetahs might succeed in keeping this game close in the first half but will fade in the second as the trip over and the Chiefs forwards take their toll.

Prediction: Chiefs by 19

Bulls v Force, Pretoria

The travelling Force move to Pretoria with their metaphorical tails between their legs after a, lets not sugar coat it, woeful display against the competition new boys, the Kings, in Port Elizabeth last week. The conundrum with the Force is that on the face of their lineup and given the number of players with international experience in their ranks you would expect them to travel better as team. Last week’s capitulation again proved otherwise however.

The Bulls have injury woes arising from their victory last week against the Stormers in what was a game when they, much like they did for the bulk of last year, won off the back of the boot of Morne Steyn and bone crushing defence. Steyn’s metronomic boot will again be a key to victory to the Bulls whose game plan revolves around strangling teams out of the game. If the Force are in any way ill disciplined in this fixture one can rest assured they will be punished on the score board.

After last week’s performance there is no way I can see the Force winning this fixture and the only reason I am tipping as narrow a margin as I am is because that is just the way the Bulls play.

Prediction: Bulls by 14

Sharks v Stormers, Durban

The last match of the round and only Sunday fixture sees the Sharks host the Stormers in Durban. The Stormers were very disappointing last week against the Bulls: they themselves have admitted as much. They have chosen not to rush Peter Grant back into their line up despite some pretty poor goal kicking last week from Elton Jantjies who again presents as a key to victory for the Stormers in this fixture.

In a performance the polar opposite to that of Jantjies for the Stormers, Patrick Lambie was on song with the boot for the Sharks last week landing 7 from 7 and the battle between these two young men will not only be one of the highlights of this game but also of this round. The Sharks ran out of gas it seemed last week when they had a substantial lead and they will know that doing the same against the Stormers will see them, in all likelihood defeated.

I see this fixture as a real toss of the coin between a team smarting from a first up loss and a home side looking for improvement. It has the look of a game that might come down to who kicks the best here and I only leaning the way of the Sharks because of their home crowd support here but there will be the barest of margins in it.

Prediction: Sharks by 1

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Super Rugby–Week 1 preview

We’re delighted to welcome back Stephen Humphreys with his weekly look at the upcoming Super Rugby action

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Only two games this week in the most abridged of possible starts to the Super 15 season. Only Australian teams are in action this week with games coming to fans from AAMI Park in Melbourne and Canberra Stadium.

Rebels v Western Force

This fixture presents the sides placed 4^th and 5^th last season in the Australian Conference with the opportunity to get off to a flying start to their 2013 campaigns. Both teams have lost some key players since 2012 without gaining many players of similar quality. The Force start 2013 without Nathan Sharpe, David Pocock, James Stannard, Rory Sidey and Cameron Shepherd while the Rebels have lost Adam Byrnes, Danny Cipriani, James Hilgendorf, Sterling Mortlock, Mark Gerrard and Julian Huxley. It would be fair to say that the Force gaining Sias Ebersohn and Alby Mathewson and the Rebels gaining Scott Higginbotham do not make up for those losses.

On paper the Rebels are replete with class across the park and will be looking to their Wallabies in Higginbotham, O’Connor and Beale to lead the charge this season. Conversely the Western Force have been, rightly in my view, installed as second favorite for the wooden spoon in 2013 and have the look of a side out of its depth against quality opposition.

The Rebels have been successful in three of the four encounters between these two teams and I frankly can not see there being any other result than a Rebels win in this fixture. The only reason I am not tipping a blowout is the propensity for local derby fixtures within the conference to throw up a tight fixture here and there. We all know derbies tend to be close affairs and upsets are often on the cards but I think the Rebels will be too much for the Force, especially at home, and the Force will end up the losers on Friday.  Rebels by 8

Brumbies v Reds

Having started the season by watching the two teams that came 4^th and 5^th in the Australian conference last season, attention will turn on Saturday night to the two stand out teams in the Australian conference, the Brumbies and Reds. The Brumbies are coming off an excellent and improved season last season where they fell at the last metaphorical hurdle whilst the Reds were courageous in their run to the finals despite a massive injury toll including injuries to some key players.

The Reds come into this season having taken a limited role in the player transfer merry-go-round save for the loss of Scott Higginbotham whilst the Brumbies have replaced the a new star at number 7 in Michael Hooper with the second best flanker in the game in David Pocock. As an opening fixture to the competition, Australian fans and the broader Super 15 community could not ask for a better game when one considers the following “battles” that will play out on the night:

• The battle of the coaches pits Ewen McKenzie against Jake White: two of the premier coaches in the game. These two wily combatants will have their teams well drilled for this fixture.

• The battle of the number 7s pits the incumbent Australian captain, David Pocock, against the captain of the Australian U20s side that competed in the IRB Junior World Championship in 2012. Fans north of the border consider Gill to have been desperately unlucky to have fallen behind, the now Waratah, Michael Hooper as Pocock understudy at open side flanker and one expects this to battle to be a mouth watering prospect.

On paper the Reds probably have the better team, a team filled with first choice Wallabies and players who have grown up in the squad however they are also without their two principal leaders in James Horwill and Will Genia which poses an obvious risk to their continuity. In particular, it would be fair to say that Quade Cooper has the propensity to look lost at times without Genia inside him. Conversely the Brumbies have a squad that includes a mix of old heads with young talent and will have the advantage of player in front of one of the must partisan crowds in the game in the nation’s capital.

This will be a tight fixture the result of which could come down to one mistake or piece of ill-discipline within kicking range. My heart says the Reds but my head says that this will be a very very close game were the crowd might just lift their home town heroes over the line.   Brumbies by 2

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Rugby Championship–final round preview

The All Blacks have secured the title but still much pride to play for in round six…our man down under Stephen Humphreys sets the scene.

How time flies when you are having fun: this week, seemingly as soon as it started, the Rugby Championship comes to an end which fixtures in Argentina and South Africa to round out the competition. We already have a winner of the competition with the dominant All Blacks wrapping up the title last week against the Pumas so the bulk of the interest in this round will be around whether the slumping Wallabies can rest their drop down the rankings with a make shift line-up.

Game One: South Africa v New Zealand at FNB Stadium Soweto

The fact that this match is now effectively a dead rubber will do nothing to dampen the passion of the combatants in this fixture. On the line of the All Blacks is an unbeaten record in the tournament as well as a 16^th win in the row which will put them within reach of the world record for victories in a row in international rugby (17 games presently held the All Blacks and Springboks).

The line-up for the All Blacks is yet to be named and will be interesting to see whether they will field their strongest line-up or line-up with some of their key men rotated out to gain a rest. I would be surprised if they did not run out with their top team behind Richie McCaw because it is simply not the All Blacks style to take any test match likely.

Last week’s victory in Argentina was close to a complete performance by the All Blacks inasmuch as they dominated the play and were outstanding in all aspects. Putting 54 points on the here thereto defensively impressive Pumas was nothing short of excellent with the return of Dan Carter reviving a backline that was previously sputtering with Aaron Cruden in the number 10 jersey.

They are the best team in the world and have lifted to a new level since the World Cup to completely dominate this tournament. Whilst they have not been overwhelmingly dominate in the forwards, they possess one of the slickest backlines we have seen in world rugby and got to a point last week where they seemingly were able to cross the try line at will. If they get good service from their forward pack, the All Blacks will again be very very difficult to stop in this fixture. One question mark that remains is whether they will be a bit jetlagged off the back their significant travel demands over the last couple of weeks and a little bit jaded off the back of having already won the tournament.

As for South Africa, having seemingly completely changed their game plan against the Wallabies last week and secured a five-tries-to-one victory at altitude at Loftus Versfeld, they will be looking to end their tournament with a win against the best team in the world who bested them in Dunedin in the last meeting between these two teams.

It will be interesting to see whether the Springboks return to their previously rigid, robotic, kick-obsessed game plan against the world champions or proceed with the more free flowing and spontaneous game plan that served them so well against the Wallabies. It strikes me that the Springboks might be a bit gun shy of taking a similarly open approach given how desirous of counter attacking the All Blacks are.

That said they definitely have the pack, as they proved in Dunedin, to match the New Zealanders both for physicality and quality ball. One big question mark will be whether the new flyhalf in Johan Goosen will suffer from “second game syndrome” having been excellent last week against the Wallabies.

This is a fixture between the best team in the world and a team that is very difficult to best at home. For the Springboks to win they will have to be perfect in executing their “new” game plan whilst for the All Blacks, business as usual should see them triumphant. I am leaning toward the All Blacks on the basis of how impressive they have been to date and because of the nagging concern I have about whether Goosen can repeat his performance from last week. All Blacks by 8.

Game 2: Argentina v Australia in Rosario

Here is a list of names worth remembering as you watch this game: Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore, Dan Palmer, James Horwill, Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman, David Pocock, Wycliff Palu, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Drew Mitchell, Berrick Barnes, Rob Horne, James O’Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper. Cooper Vuna, Joseph Tomane and Nic White. All are injured and all would have, likely, played a role in this test match had they been fit.

The simple fact is that the Wallabies have been decimated by injuries, so much so that only the side that will run out on Sunday morning Australian time is basically unrecognizable compared to the one that kicked off the season against Scotland in monsoonal conditions in Newcastle in May.

They come into this fixture off the back of another demoralising performance, this time against the Springboks where they leaked 5 tries and where lucky not to leak some more. Yes the team is in an injury crisis but it also must be remembered that the Wallabies have been far from in optimal form all season.

In what ended up being an ugly outing for the Wallabies last week a shining light was the performance of Kurtley Beale who stepped into the breach at fly half admirably. Coming into this fixture he will again need to be at the peak of his form here. The forwards for the Wallabies will need to lift their intensity and go forward at the breakdown to challenge what has been a very impressive Pumas forward pack to date.

The Pumas have developed as a team throughout the last six weeks and have moved from playing a distinctly defensive game to last week being more prepared to spread the ball around and attack the line of their All Black opponents. The score line last week belied the performance of the Pumas who tested the All Blacks at times. It should not be forgotten just how good the All Blacks are at the moment.

Their forward pack has held its own against each of the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks forward packs with their prop Roncero seemingly a medical marvel who just keeps rolling forward. In the backs they possess a mix of experience and youthful flair that is finding its feet in this tournament and can be dangerous when they deign to through the ball around.

The Argentinians have shown that they can mix it with the best of teams on their day and on the Gold Coast their game plan against the Wallabies was close to perfect until they ran out of puff with 15 minutes to go. If they perform to that level for a full 80 minutes in front of their home fans they will be very tough to beat.

This is a tough game to tip for me: the heart is saying the Wallabies but everything else is coming out with a Puma’s victory to make the infamy of the Wallabies’ Rugby Championship campaign complete. That being the case I will tip to readers the Pumas in this game and fear that it will not be a small score. Pumas by 12.

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Rugby Championship Round 5 preview

The inaugural Rugby Championship is nearing its conclusion and our man down under Stephen Humphreys has the low-down.

After a short break, the Rugby Championship returns to action this week with the Wallabies travelling to Loftus Versfeld to take on the Springboks and the Pumas hosting the All Blacks at La Plata.

The break between rounds has been filled with controversy for Australian fans that has all been generated from the twitter account of Quade Cooper. The less said about that issue the better given that the drama seems to have abated and there is now rugby to watch again. In other news, the move by Richie McCaw to announce he is taking a rest next season has left the McCaw fanatics bereft and weeping.

Game 1: South Africa v Australia in Pretoria, 4pm (Irish time)

Altitude has never been kind to the Wallabies and their record at Loftus Versfeld reflects this having never won there. Unfortunately I do not think this game will lead to a change in that record.

Frankly both teams have been in disarray during the course of this competition and Heyneke Meyer and Robbie Deans both desperately need a win. Meyer has rung the changes from the line-up defeated by the All Blacks in Dunedin with the biggest casualty the home town hero Morne Steyn who has been dropped in favour of Johan Goosen from the Cheetahs after an indifferent performance with the boot. Frans Steyn is struggling with an injury and it is expected that Jaco Taute will come into the side at outside centre with Jean de Villiers moving to inside centre. The other change sees Eben Etzebeth return from suspension. In addition to these changes to the starting line-up there are four new faces on the bench for Springboks.

The game plan for the Springboks has been limited and focused on seeking field position and penalties through the boot of Morne Steyn and frankly it has not worked from them so far with their only success being a victory against the Pumas in the first game of the competition. They have been strong in defence generally and have held their own in the forwards but they just have not been able to score enough points. Until the 10 man rugby plan of Coach Meyer is jettisoned they will continue to struggle with point scoring. That said, if there was ever anywhere a field possession game plan could work for the Springboks it will be in the rare air in Pretoria.

The Wallabies have had changes to their line-up again forced upon them with injuries to Quade Cooper and Stephen Moore seeing them out of the line up for the remainder of the Rugby Championship. The Wallabies are now onto their fifth captain in twelve months through injury and also remain without James O’Connor. It appears likely that Kurtley Beale will be the new number 10 for the Wallabies albeit as at the time of writing the Wallabies line up has not yet been named.

Whilst the Wallabies have been hammered by injuries to key players the fact remains that the execution by the Wallabies as well as their play at the set pieces has been generally woeful so far this season. The focus tactically for the Wallabies seems to have been also on playing a field position game however just about every kicking duel they have entered into has seen a net loss for them regardless of the opposition. Reliance again on a field position game will not bode well for the Wallabies as one does not see them winning a kicking duel with the Springboks. Discipline in their own half will also be a key for the Wallabies.

The Wallabies have won the last five games against the Springboks which is a record albeit each of these fixtures have been close run affairs and, indeed, have won the last two match ups held in South Africa. Despite the Springboks sitting below the Wallabies on the table at present, their performance against the All Blacks last time out was far superior to the form the Wallabies have shown against the same opposition. The Wallabies defeat of the Pumas should not mask just how poor the Wallabies were in that game and whilst I expect some improvement from them I think the Springboks are simply in better form at the moment and in front of their home crowd I am tipping them to win this fixture in a close game. Springboks by 5.

Game: Pumas v All Blacks at La Plata, 12:10am Sunday (Irish time)

The All Blacks continue to dominate this competition however despite this coach Steve Hansen has again made key positional changes for this round’s fixture. Not surprisingly Dan Carter has been installed back into the line- up at the expense of the suddenly out of sorts Aaron Cruden. Seemingly expecting a physical encounter in the forwards, the All Blacks selectors have opted for the pairs of Luke Romano and Brodie Retallick at lock with Sam Whitelock returning the warming the bench for this fixture. The unluckiest man in world rugby at the moment might just be Liam Messam who, despite recently excellent form is again on the bench with Victor Vito getting the start on the blindside flank.

Whilst the All Blacks do remain undefeated their run of matches at home in the last two rounds have presented performances that have been somewhat below their usual standard with the Puma pushing them all the way in round 3 and the Springboks failing to get over the line in Dunedin only because the collective radars of their goal kickers were awry. The return of Dan Carter is a big one for them and one expects he will provide a calming influence in the All Blacks star studded backline that has been sorely missing in recent weeks.

For the Argentinians coach Santiago Phelan has named the same starting side as that which narrowly lost to the Wallabies on the Gold Coast a fortnight ago. This is a side playing with passion and poise for the most part in their games but again were found wanting in the last twenty minutes against the Wallabies to let them back into the game.

In this fixture, the Pumas will be looking to defeat the All Blacks for the first time in their history and will need to play a full 80 minutes with the same passion and poise coupled with their commitment in defence to challenge the best team in the world.

The Pumas at home is probably the new toughest test in southern hemisphere rugby for visiting teams and again the All Blacks can expect to face a hostile environment in La Plata. Whilst I expect the Argentinians to lift in front of this most parochial of home crowds, I equally do not expect the All Blacks to under-estimate the Pumas here, as evidence by the return of that man Carter. Whilst this will be a close fixture I cannot see the Puma’s breaking their duck against the All Blacks here and am tipping the All Blacks to win by 13. All Blacks by 13

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Rugby Championship Round 4 preview

Our man Down Under Stephen Humphreys looks ahead to the third round of matches…

Another week and another interesting round of the Rugby Championship beckons.  Last week saw the Wallabies open their account in this competition with a hard earned victory against the Springboks in Perth whilst the All Blacks defeated the Pumas in Wellington in a game in which the All Blacks could not have been happy with their performance.

This week the Springboks travel to Dunedin to face the All Blacks at Forsyth Barr Stadium and the Wallabies and Pumas face off in the first rugby test match to be played on Queensland’s Gold Coast.

Game 1: All Blacks v Springboks, Forsyth Barr Stadium

Both coaches have made changes to their sides ahead of the All Blacks’ clash with South Africa in Dunedin on Saturday.

Dan Carter’s injury enforced absence has secured Aaron Cruden another start after his insipid performance last week against the Pumas.  This week he will have a different halves partner with Piri Weepu replacing Aaron Smith at number 9 due to disciplinary reasons.  In the pack, Sam Whitelock and Liam Messam return to the run-on side.

The All Blacks will be stung by criticism of their performance last week, which is not in any way meant to be derogatory about the performance of the Pumas, and will be looking to return to their previously dominant form from earlier fixtures against the Wallabies.  They have class all over the park and particularly will be looking to use their speedy outside backs to pierce the Springboks defence.  Equally, off the back of a fairly even forward battle with the Pumas last week, the All Blacks back row can be expected to seek to dominate their opponents to allow for more positive attacking opportunities and ultimately more points. 

The Springboks have been outmatched in the back row contests in each fixture to date and again Heneke Meyer has made some changes to the starting pack with a view to adding more impact.  The front row for the Springboks also has injury concerns and has been a surprise weakness for them to date.

The Springboks have, to date, focused on playing 10 man rugby and relied on a game plan that that revolves around kicking for territory and hoping that their opposition makes mistakes so that Morne Steyn can kick them to a victory. This is a strategy that did not work against a Wallabies team in patchy, at best, form last week however there has been no indication that a different strategy will be used by the Springboks in this fixture.

The All Blacks will have to be careful not to gift the Springboks too many scoring opportunities through penalties, particularly if they are overzealous at the breakdown.  That said, if they manage this part of their game well and don’t give away a large penalty count, I do not believe the Springboks will have enough points in them to best the number one team in the world in this fixture particularly as they will be looking to rebound from their fairly poor display last week. I am tipping the All Blacks to remain undefeated and to win this game in a bit of a canter.  All Blacks by 14

Game 2: Wallabies v Pumas, Skilled Park

In this preview last week, I commented that the Pumas would put in a good effort for the first 60 minutes against the All Blacks and then fall away in the sight of the finishing post and that was how that fixture ended up.  The Pumas were very good against the All Blacks and played to their game plan very well.  So well in fact that despite losing, the Pumas certainly would have taken more positives from the game than their vanquisher.

The Pumas have made two changes in the back line to the team that tested the All Blacks last week with scrum-half Nicolas Vergallo and full-back Martin Rodriguez dropped and replaced by Martin Landajo and Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino respectively.  The forward pack that did so well last week remains unchanged and it will be through the forwards that the Pumas will be looking to test the Wallabies.

Such an emphasis on forward power and dominance at the break down is not without risk though and the Pumas have found themselves on the end of some heavy penalty counts so far this season.  That will need to change against the Wallabies as will their propensity to fade out in the last 20 minutes of games.

Another week and another Wallabies line up loaded with changes, some forced by injury and some based on form.  In the backs, Will Genia’s knee injury sees Nick Phipps take over at number 9 whilst Kurtley Beale’s ongoing struggles at fullback have seen Rob Horne rushed back from injury to play inside centre with Berrick Barnes moving to the custodian role.  Kane Douglas makes his debut in the forward pack in place of the injured Sitakeli Timani. Former Gold Coast resident and Queensland Reds captain Nathan Sharpe takes the reins in his former home town.

I have been vocal on twitter about my views on the balance of this team and, whilst this is not the forum to vent those views again, a real concern I have is the lack of a bona fide goal kicking replacement for Berrick Barnes with Mike Harris not being selected on the bench.  Barnes has struggled with cramp in just about every test match this season (including the June tests) and at the Gold Coast the humidity will again do him no favours.

Setting that concern to one side, the Wallabies thus far this season have been one dimensional in attack whilst being largely excellent in defence.  As much as has been stated in the media this week that the Pumas are no longer the “surprise packets” they were at the start of this competition, if the Wallabies have not changed their game plans from previous weeks there will be no surprises at all for their opponents and this presents a danger for them going into this fixture.  The selection of Pat McCabe will not assist in fostering an expansive style of play however if the Wallabies forwards set a solid foundation then hopefully Quade Cooper will be able to conjure some try scoring opportunities.

All things considered, I do not think the Pumas will break their Rugby Championship duck in this fixture and whilst they will be very competitive, particularly in the forwards, I again expect an evenly matched game at half time to be blown out at the end by the Wallabies.  Wallabies by 11.

Steve (@shumpty77) is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Content is reproduced with the kind permission of PinkRugby.com

Rugby Championship Round 3 preview

Our man Down Under Stephen Humphreys looks ahead to the third round of matches…

After a fortnight’s break, the Rugby Championship returns to our screens this week with matches from Perth in Western Australia between Australia and South Africa and the New Zealand All Blacks hosting the Pumas from Argentina in windy Wellington.

Round 3 kicks off with the All Blacks v Pumas fixture from Wellington earley Saturday morning. The All Blacks come into this fixture having dominated the Wallabies in the first two fixtures of this competition whilst the Pumas will be buoyed by their draw against the Springboks at home in Round 2 in a match they had the best of.

The Pumas have made two changes to their side from Round 2 with fly-half Juan Martin Hernandez and openside flanker Juan Manuel Leguizamon returning to the team. Whilst it is obvious that the Pumas will play physical and direct style of play, one thing that is clear from last week’s performance is that they struggle to convert opportunities into points. Their style of play is focused on gaining field position through the set pieces and then rely upon their opponent’s ill discipline to lead to scoring opportunities.

The All Blacks have made multiple changes to the side that defeated the Wallabies 22-0 at Eden Park for this fixture with Julian Savea starting on the wing and Brodie Retallick starting in the second row. Additionally, Tony Woodcock and Conrad Smith return to the side and Victor Vito replaces the, seemingly desperately, unlucky Liam Messam at blindside flanker. The biggest change for the All Blacks though is the loss of Dan Carter to a training injury which sees his “apprentice”, Aaron Cruden, start.

Despite this plethora of changes, the All Blacks are the best side in the world of rugby by a long way at the moment and will again look to the starve their opponents of ball whilst unleashing their speedy back three from set plays to secure points.

New Zealand teams historically struggle to defeat the men from Argentina and this battle will again be a hard fought encounter. Make no mistake, the Pumas will present a strong challenge in this fixture and in defence and at set play time the sides are fairly evenly matched. I expect this to be a close game in the first half with the All Blacks to run away with it in the second stanza as the Pumas tire and the All Blacks’ class comes through. All Blacks by 19.

The second fixture of the round says the presently much maligned Wallabies host the men from South Africa in Perth at Patersons Stadium. The no 2 ranking in world rugby is on the line this fixture and that will be motivation enough for both teams to lift after very disappointing performances two weekends ago.

The Springboks have made a number of changes to the team that disappointed against the Pumas and have overhauled the back of the scrum with a view to, seemingly, dominating the Wallabies at the break down and in the set pieces. With this focus in mind Andries Bekker and Jacques Potgieter have been dropped with Juandre Kruger and Duane Vermeulen coming into the team. The Springboks have also looked to improve their stuttering attack and selected experienced halfback Ruan Pienaar to the starting line up and have dropped Mvovo for Francois Hougaard.

The Springboks are expected to play 10 man rugby in this fixture in the hope of stifling the Wallabies and by the look of their pack will be focused on physically challenging the Wallabies at every opportunity. Again it looks like the boot of Morne Steyn will be vital to the Springboks chances and one really can not see him being off form two weeks in a row so the Wallabies will need to be wary of any ill-discipline in their own half.

The Wallabies were thrashed by the All Blacks a fortnight ago and were flattered by the scoreline in both test matches they have played to date in the Rugby Championship. Robbie Deans, possibly facing a match to save his job at the helm of the Wallabies, has again made significant changes to the line up that played in Auckland. Kurtley Beale returns to the team at fullback with Adam Ashley Cooper replacing Rob Horne at inside centre. Dom Shipperley replaces the injured Drew Mitchell on the wing while Scott Higginbotham has been dropped to the bench with Radicke Samo taking his place on the bench. Mike Harris has also made his way onto the bench for this fixture.

The immediate reaction to this line-up is that it presents as a much more balanced team in attack than that selected for the first two games. That being the case, it would be hoped by many that the Wallabies jettison their approach of kicking the ball at every opportunity and keep the ball in hand more. Equally, it is vital that the Wallabies win the physical battle against this very large South African line up. All in all a large approval across all aspects of the game will be need by the Wallabies to avoid being ensconced at the bottom of the table after three rounds.

This will be another brutal encounter and it is worth noting that whilst the Wallabies have a recent rich vein of form against the Springboks at home, games in Perth historically have fallen the way of the Springboks.

The result of this game is likely to come down to whether the Wallabies misfiring attack can reserve the form of previous weeks and fire on all cylinders. If it does they should score enough points to defeat the 10 man attack of the Springboks.

I am tipping the Wallabies return to form after their terrible last two weeks and win this game in a close encounter. Wallabies by 7.

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

The Rugby Championship – Week 2 preview

Our man down under @shumpty77 looks ahead to the second round of matches.

An historic weekend of rugby last weekend panned out as many expected as the defence orientated Wallabies could not pounce on the mistakes made by the rusty All Blacks and the Springboks ran away from the gallant Pumas.

This week of fixtures present the “return bouts” with the All Blacks hosting the Wallabies at Eden Park and the Pumas hosting the Springboks on that evening in Mendoza.

Game 3 : New Zealand v Australia   (kickoff 8:35am Irish time)

What can one say about the clash between these sides last week? Frankly it was scrappy and the score line flattered a very ordinary Wallabies outfit. This week this fixture comes to us from Eden Park where the Wallabies have not been victorious since Alan Jones was the coach of the Wallabies in 1986. I do not expect this record of losses to be resolved this weekend given the disparate level of quality and class between the two line-ups.

The All Blacks have made one change to their line-up from last week with Woodcock out through injury. Last week they showed that they are somewhat more flexible in attack than most expected with their “big” centres playing a limited roll and acting mostly as decoys in the set plays that lead to tries. They also dominated the Wallabies at scrum time and were so effective at the breakdown that ball to Will Genia was consistently slow.

Equally the All Blacks did play below their usual lofty standard in their first run together for some weeks so they will be looking to improve significantly on last week’s performance rather than trotting out “more of the same”. In order to do this it will again be important for the All Blacks to dominate the set pieces, win the collisions and score points through their slickness in the backline rather than just barging it up through their outside centres.

What do the Wallabies need to win? It might sound facetious but given that last week was probably their best chance to defeat the All Blacks this year it looks likely that a miracle will truly be required to dent the All Black’s Eden Park dominance. The Wallabies have the look of a rudderless ship in disarray in a storm at the moment with selection condundrums and injury concerns compounding the woe that rests with being the second best team in the ANZAC colonies.

No David Pocock this week is a big blow for the Wallabies albeit it must be said that he was nullified at the breakdown last week before he was injured and in Michael Hooper he has a star of the future to replace him. More worrying for the Wallabies will be their total ineffectiveness in attack last week. Coach Deans has tried to mitigate against a similar performance this week with the injection of Quade Cooper into the line up at fly half however the inclusion of the Waratahs’ 13, 14 (noting Drew Mitchell’s lack of match time in the sky blue this year) and 15 will not be causing the All Blacks’ brain trust to unduly loose sleep at night.

Simply put, Cooper cannot do it all on his own no matter how mighty his performance might be. Across the backline the key match ups aside from those between the fly halves look like the rest easily in the favour of the All Blacks and thus the ability of the Wallabies to score points will continue to be a worry.

The well beaten front row from last week has also been shaken up through injury with the Brumbies’ hooker Stephen Moore returning to the run on side. Equally the well beaten Benn Robinson retains the number one jersey ahead of James Slipper, so it will not be a surprise of the problems of last week at scrum time do not raise their ugly head again.

Ultimately, the All Blacks are the number one team in rugby for a reason as well as being prohibitive $1.09 favourites to win this game: they loose at home rarely if at all and will be primed for an improved performance before an Eden Park crowd that has little to cheer about so far this season. Whilst my heart is begging for a Wallabies victory my brain is saying to consider same a possibility is an act of stupidity on current form and that being the case I this the All Blacks will win this game and win it well. All Blacks by 19

Game 4 : Argentina v South Africa  (KO 7:10pm Irish time)

It has long been said that if the Pumas are to win a game in the Rugby Championship this season it will be at home albeit most pundits presently suggest that that win may well come later in the season against the wobbling Wallabies.

The Pumas have suffered a major blow already this week with Juan Martin Hernandez ruled out with a torn hamstring that occurred at training. They have made one other change to the side from Newlands with Martin Rodriquez coming at fullback for the incumbent Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino whose performance last week was calamitous to say the least.

This week the competition debutants have another mountain to climb to threaten the Springboks and they will need to do so through their strengths in the forward pack as well as in defence which was praised by the Springbok’s coach last week despite leaking 27 points by full time. In order to beat this Springboks outfit the Pumas must score at least 25 points in my opinion and must have an early lead. They must also carefully monitor their discipline to ensure that they do not present Morne Steyn with any opportunities to bolster the Springboks score.

The Springboks were workmanlike in their disposal of the Pumas last week and gave the impression of being a team that still had a few gears to get through before they reached top gear. They have made two changes to their line-up last week with Keegan Daniel dropped to the bench after a moribund performance in game one and Bismarck du Plessis ruled out with a knee ligament injury. Adriaan Strauss and Jacques Potgieter come into the team.

One suspects they will need to lift a couple of gears in this fixture as they will be against a Pumas side desperate for their first win in the competition before their home fans. That said they are team with class across the park who will rely upon their combinations formed during the Super 15 which have largely been maintained to again beat the debutants. In Messrs Kirchner, Habana and Mvovo they have a back three with pace to burn who will use the platform created by their enormous forward pack to their absolute advantage if the Pumas are not diligent in defence.

I do not expect an upset in this game but do expect the Pumas to present more of a test to the Springboks this week in their first home match of the Rugby Championship and thus I expect this game to be closer than last week’s away loss for them. Springboks by 11

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

The Rugby Championship–Week 1 preview

Our man down under @shumpty77 looks ahead to an historic weekend in test rugby.

After a short break to take breath after the conclusion of the Super 15 rugby season, international rugby returns to the Southern Hemisphere with the commencement of the revamped Tri-nations in the form of the Rugby Championship.

The addition of Argentina to the competition this season adds an element of excitement to what had become a slightly tired format in recent years.

Australia is the defending champion and host New Zealand in the first game of the new competition as well as the first game of the battle for the Bledisloe Cup in Sydney on Saturday morning. South Africa host the new boys, Argentina, at Cape Town that afternoon. [click here for the full set of fixtures & Irish kickoff times]

Game 1: Australia v New Zealand

The great rivalry of Southern Hemisphere rugby continues in the first game of the Rugby Championship with the Wallabies coming into this fixture of the back of a less than stellar campaign against Wales and Scotland as well as seeing its teams finish the Super 15 championship with a whimper rather than a roar. The All Blacks on the other hand will be buoyed by their performances against the Irish during the midseason break and by the fact that in the Chiefs they again possess the mantle of Super 15 champions.

The last fixture between these two teams was the semi-final of the World Cup last year which saw the All Blacks easily dispatch their cousins across the ditch. Indeed if one only considers statistics the All Blacks must be roaring favourites to win this game having held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003 and until the Wallabies victory at Lang Park last year having not been bested in Australia in the previous four encounters between the sides.

The Wallabies have made only two changes to the team that took the field against the Welsh in May and both of those changes have arisen off the back of injuries to Palu and McCabe with Dennis and Faingaa replacing them respectively. The side selected is, frankly, replete with New South Wales players which is concerning for all Wallabies fans given that provinces failure to win in their last 9 games of the Super 15 series. The Wallabies line-up has the look of a team that will be defensively strong whilst not setting the world on fire in attack. Barnes, Faingaa and Horne will need to find attacking flair that has escaped them in previous test matches to get the ball to the likes of Ashley-Cooper, Ioane and Beale. Equally, the backline will have little roll to play if the Wallabies forwards cannot win more than their share of set pieces and at the breakdown so the performance of Timani and Sharpe in the line out and Pocock and Higginbotham at the break down will be absolutely vital.

The All Blacks have named a very strong side on paper with a mixture of stars of Bledisloe’s past and players of the future in their line up. They will again rely upon the brilliance of their talismanic super stars McCaw and Carter to lead them around the park. Liam Messam and Luke Romano have been rewarded for excellent Super 15 seasons and join a very experienced forward back that welcomes the return of Kieran Read from injury at number 8. The back three for All Blacks in Gear, Jane and Dagg all possess electric speed and if the ball can get past Nonu and Williams to them at speed they could wreak havoc. The World Cup champions arrive in Sydney with only three changes to the side that won the World Cup and if they perform anywhere near the level of play they showed in the World Cup and against Ireland they will be tough to beat.

This game really presents a clash in styles between the defensive (looking) Wallabies and the attacking might of the All Blacks. For the Wallabies to have a chance to restrain the All Black’s juggernaut they must stop them from scoring tries and must frustrate them into making enough mistakes to allow for the Wallabies to score.

That said the All Blacks seem to have just a bit too much class across most positions and if parity is maintained in the forward battle it is difficult to see the Wallabies backline getting over the top of their counterparts. So, whilst the heart is telling me the Wallabies will win, I have no option but to tip the All Blacks to win this one and possibly to win well. New Zealand by 11

Game 2: South Africa v Argentina

The Pumas have been added to the Rugby Championship this season and will come to Newlands Stadium with great hopes of causing an upset in their first fixture. They come into this fixture off the back of wins by their second string players over France and Italy as well as having recently completed a training camp in Pensacola, Florida, which will have left the Pumas in great shape. If they are to prove the naysayers, such as All Blacks coach Steve Hansen wrong through they will need to overcome their terrible record against South Africa whom they have never beaten.

Fly half Juan Martin Hernandez returns to the Puma’s outfit after being on the outer for the last 3 years and be looking to form a smooth combination with Nicolas Vergallo the half back. Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe has been named captain for this fixture in what presents as the 35 year old’s last international campaign before retirement. In Rodrigo Roncero’s 50^th game he will again form a vital part of the front row for the Pumas and it is in the front row that they will be looking to assert some level of dominance against the Springboks front row with a view to setting a platform for their backs to attack.

The Springboks come into this fixture off the back of an excellent super 15 campaign for three of their teams and a final appearance by the Sharks against the ultimate champion Chiefs. They also were excellent in their series victory against the English during the winter series. They have picked a very strong line-up for this fixture and have made five changes from the team that ran out against England in June.

The forward pack has a new look to it with Andres Bekker returning to the Springboks team in place of Juandre Kruger for his first test in two years, Keegan Daniel making his first start in Springbok colours and Willem Alberts returns to the flank in place of Jacques Potgieter. In the backline Zane Kirchner returns to the custodian role in place of Gio Aplon whilst Lwazi Mvovo replaces the injured JP Pietersen. Frans Steyn will also return to the lineup to play his 50^th test in Springbok colours.

This is a team full of combinations that were successful in Super 15 competition with the front-row and loose forwards being from The Sharks, the locks play together for the Stormers and the half-backs are from the Bulls. These combinations will bode well for a Springboks line up that will be looking for an early big win to get them on their way in this season’s tournament.

With pace to burn in the backline, a massive forward pack and their metronomic kicker in Morne Steyn I cannot see the Springboks threatened in this fixture and am tipping them to get off to a flying start to the season. South Africa by 17

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Super Rugby Final Preview

Both sides had tough roads to the final, only one will be crowned Super Rugby champions for the first time.  @shumpty77 sizes up the contenders.

As they say in the classics: all good things must come to an end, and this weekend after five months of scintillating action the battle for the Super 15 title will come down to a winner takes all battle in Hamilton.

In one corner is the home town favourite Chiefs who, after a massive clean out last season, have defied their critics all season to lead the New Zealand conference and beat the Crusaders last week. It goes without saying that last week's semi-final win against the Crusaders was their best performance of the season in which they defeated their more fancied opponents both tactically and in the physical contest.

In the other corner are the frequent flyers of the Super 15 in the Sharks from Durban. In the last fortnight they have travelled from Durban to Brisbane to Cape Town to Hamilton which is a heavy load in anyone's currency. I, for one, expected them to struggle after going through the first two legs of that schedule last weekend but they proved me wrong with another brilliant defensive effort in Cape Town against the Stormers.

As I see it there are four key factors that could swing this fixture in favour of either team. I will deal with each of them in turn:

1. Cruden v Michalak

Aaron Cruden is coming off what can only be described as a career year for him. He is solidified his hold on Dan Carter's number 10 jersey at All Black level when Carter eventually retires and has been the lynchpin for the Chiefs in releasing its dynamic backline. At the start of the season Michalak would probably have not expected to have played a starting roll for the Sharks with young Lambie preferred but by dint of a mix of injury and brilliant form has forced his way into the line up and played a key roll. His tactical nouse has been vital and his uncanny knack of taking 3 points whenever offered has been key to the Sharks final's run.

2. The front row battle

The Sharks possess one of the most experienced front rows in the competition and are all Springboks. A lot of their forward drive has come from the du Plessis brothers and "the Beast" who not only provide an excellent platform in the scrum but run like loose forwards in broken play. The Chiefs' front row has not been the focus of many plaudits during the season but, much like their Sharks counterparts, have often being dominant in the scrum and in Taumalolo have a bona fide try scorer in the front row.

3. SBW v JP Pietersen

It would be difficult to find two more entertaining players in the game at the moment than the back line impresarios in each back line in Williams and Pietersen. Williams is playing his last game of Super Rugby (for now) and he will be looking to go out on a winning note. The Crusaders had few answers for his rampages in the midfield last week and his ability to offload in traffic is probably without peer at present. Pietersen is deceptively quick and can sniff out a try in any situation and at any place on the field. He is also an excellent defender who will often be seen in this fixture coming off his wing to shut down a Chiefs' backline raid.

4. Jetlag

As I noted in the preamble, the Sharks seem to have spent more time in airport lounges and in the air than they have on the training paddock in recent times. Whilst last week the rigours of their travelling schedule did not seem to affect them however this week is a whole new ball game given that they have again had to make the more difficult west to east route. An added factor here is that the Chiefs have not had to leave New Zealand in the last four weeks so will be fresh, well at least as fresh as one can be after an encounter with the Crusaders.

All in all, there is little between these two sides on paper and this presents as a mouth-watering encounter that is a fitting way to end this Super 15 season.

Whilst the Sharks probably have a bit more starch in defence that the Chiefs, the Chiefs attacking weapons probably hold a slight advantage. In front of their home crowd and with the travel issues noted above playing on my mind I am going to tip the Chiefs to win here and to win their first Super Rugby title.

Steve Walsh is the referee and that is just reward for being the best referee in the competition.

Shumpty’s verdict = Chiefs by 6

Starting lineups

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga.

Sharks: 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.

Date: Saturday, 4 August
Venue: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 8:35 Irish time
Referee: Steve Walsh
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert, Keith Brown
TMO: Garratt Williamson

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Super Rugby Week 17 preview

Week 17 fixtures (all times Irish)

Friday, 6 July 2012

Chiefs v Crusaders, 08:35

Reds v Highlanders, 10:40

Sharks v Bulls, 18:10

Saturday, 7 July 2012

Blues v Western Force, 08:35

Waratahs v Brumbies, 10:40

Cheetahs v Stormers, 14:00

Lions v Melbourne Rebels, 16:05

Another week of Super Rugby has passed and not much has changed in the race for the finals with nine teams looking to squeeze into final six. The results, save for the Highlanders loss to the Chiefs, all fell to the favour of the finals combatants. The Hurricanes surprise victory against the Crusaders has contracted the race between the New Zealand conference teams and they get the benefit of the bye this week and the four points that go with it.

The penultimate round of Super 15 presents with some of the best games of the season with the Chiefs playing the Crusaders and the Sharks playing the Bulls. The later game could have a marked effect on the final make up of the top 6 with the Sharks prospects on the line against the Bulls.

There are three games to kick the round off on Friday night and the first of those sees the Crusaders travel to the Waikato to take on the tournament leading Chiefs. The Crusaders were, frankly, disappointing against the Hurricanes but it must be said they were missing some of their stars. The return of Dan Carte rand Kieran Read this week will be a massive boost for them. If they lose this game they may find themselves out of contention so one could expect that they will be primed for a victory here. The Chiefs come into this fixture already having a home playoff locked in. They got the job done against the Highlanders without being super impressive and will be better for that run last week. They have only lost two games this season and are rightly favourites at the moment to take out the whole tournament. This is a game that they need to win to cement themselves as a genuine contender for the title. I think the Chiefs are the real deal this year and am tipping them to win this one in a game that should be a classic. Chiefs by 6

Friday night’s second game comes to us from Lang Park where the Reds host the Highlanders. The Reds have won their last four games and have only lost one game at home all year. The combination of Genia, Cooper and Harris is really starting to gel and coupled with a forward pack starting to dominate their opposition, the Reds are striking form at the right time of the season. If they play the way they did in the first half against the Rebels they will be very difficult to defeat. Equally it must be noted that once replacements had to be made in the second half against the Rebels much of the Reds’ continuity went missing. The Highlanders have dropped out of contention for the finals after losing to the Chiefs last week and now may be the spoilers that the Reds do not need in their quest to retain their crown. In attack the Highlanders are replete with quality players including the always impressive Hosea Gear but they seem to have lost their way in recent rounds and have given up starts early in games that they have not been able to run down. There is everything to play for for the Reds and in front of a Friday night full house at Lang Park I cannot see them dropping this game. Reds by 8

The final Friday night fixture is an unusual Friday game from South Africa. The Sharkshost the Bulls at ABSA Stadium in a game that will have a large impact on the make-up of the final six. The Bulls bested the Cheetahs last week to lock in their first win in four weeks and were certainly impressive in the first half to break the spirits of the Cheethas to gain five valuable points. Stacked with Springboks, they have not really had a chance to refresh over the international break which may cause them some problems as things get towards the finals but also gives the Bulls the advantage in that they have maintained match fitness and continuity whilst other teams have been resting. The Sharks come into this fixture having lost before the break to the Lions and then the bye last week. Their Springbok players aside, they have not had a lot of rugby in the last five weeks. They do have a quality forward back and will need to win the forward battle in this fixture to have a chance to defeat the Bulls and keep their finals hopes alive. I am leaning towards the Bulls in this one principally as a result of the Sharks not having played much rugby in the last five weeks. Bulls by 4

In the battle of the cellar dwellers at Eden Park the Blues host the Forceon Saturday evening. Both teams have been disarray this season with coaching dramas and player insurrections and will be desperate to secure a win in this fixture. The Blues have been the disappointments of the season and have won only two out of fourteen. They will be desperate to win in front of their home crowd which is likely to be a small one given recent form. The Force improved in the second half against the Brumbies but really by then the game was already over. They have only won one game on the road this season and simply do not have the backline to challenge the quality teams in this competition. Their backline limitations could again have a large bearing on the outcome of this game because I expect their forwards to be equal to the task set for them by the Blues. Ultimately I think the Blues will have too much fire power in the back line and will condemn the Force to their twelfth loss of the season. Blues by 7

The Brumbies travel east on Saturday night to take on the Waratahs at the Sydney Football Stadium. The Waratahs have made significant changes to their back line this week with Foley getting an opportunity at fly half and they will have their first choice wingers, Turner and Mitchell, back for the first time this season. They have not won a game in nine weeks and whilst there have been some close games in that period they really have not played well. Their reliance on kicking has cruelled them and one thing the Test break has shown us is that Berrick Barnes has been in excellent form but seems to have been let down by the players around him. The Brumbies continue to prove the doubters wrong and just keep winning. Equally, if they wish to secure the top spot in the Australian conference they need to keep on winning. They have a backline replete with try scorers and have a forward pack that is growing in stature each week led by their international front row. I cannot see the Waratahs breaking their losing streak in this fixture despite the changes to the backline and expect the Brumbies to win in a tight one. Brumbies by 6

In the first of two games in the early hours of Sunday morning (Australian time), the Cheetahshost the Stormers in Bloemfontein. The Stormers were fairly ordinary last week against the Lions it must be said and they continue to fail to score points. That said, despite having scored less points than all but the bottom four teams and fewer tries than only the Lions, they consistently find ways to win. They win through having the best defence in the competition and that defence again will be on display against the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs are enigmatic to say the least: they attack vibrantly, the defend terribly, they are generally poorly disciplined at the breakdown and they have only won five games all season. Last week they played well in patches against the Bulls but again their inconsistency and poor discipline let them down. The Stormers will be too strong in this fixture and may well sneak out a very welcome bonus point if they can finally find their attacking mojo. Stormers by 11.

The final match of the round is the antithesis of the first: this game presents as likely to be the worst of the round with the Lions hosting the travelling Rebels at altitude in Johannesburg. The Lions face the real prospect of not surviving in Super 15 after these final two fixtures and have pride to play for as well their ongoing futures. Whilst the Stormers were less than impressive last week, the Lions certainly tested them at certain points during the fixture. They have shown that when on song they can score points with no more stunning an example being their shock victory over the Sharks before the international break. The Rebels are terrible travellers and this international tour to finish the season could not come at a worse time for them off the back of injuries to their main men O’Connor and Beale. Ultimately I cannot see the Rebels improving their away form in this fixture and expect the Lions to win and possible win well. Lions by 12.

Bye: Hurricanes

Match of the Round: the first match of the round is a ripper with the Chiefs taking on the Crusaders in a game which could now, after their loss last week, play a large role in where the Crusaders finish on the table this season.  

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

© JL Pagano 2012