Non-Irish Pro12 HCup Preview

As always Liam Sinclair has a look at the prospects of the non-Irish clubs in the Rabo…

One of my favourite weekends of the year is now. Might be our last? Certainly the last in this exact format.

The pools look as close as I've ever seen them so should be a great season with plenty of tension. I'll be sticking to my usual teams prediction wise and have once again been left in a situation where I don't get to pick many winners. Ah well, I'll power on regardless.

Zebre – The first of my lads in action the weekend are the men from Parma. Here to make up the numbers in pool 3 alongside Saracens, Connacht and the weekend's rivals, Toulouse. While Toulouse seem to have lost the air of invulnerability they used to enjoy they are still a quality team, deserving of their place at the top table. Zebre are the opposite. Not quite the punchline they used to be having gotten a victory under their belts but still, easily, the whipping boys of any group they find themselves in. With Connacht alongside them Toulouse and Sarries must feel they both have a chance of qualifying. This weekend should be easy for Toulouse at home. There’s not really much doubt is there? Big victory for the Top14 team.

Edinburgh – Pool 6 is one of a few interesting groups. Edinburgh, Gloucester, Munster and Perpignan, all these teams are capable of beating each other on their day making it a tough one to call. Munster for the big game or Perpignan with their quality are the likely winners. Form is on their side at this early stage aswell being 2 and 3 points off top spot in their leagues. Edinburgh have started off very sluggishly in the Pro12. Sitting bottom with just one win under their belts they go into European competition needing another to get things moving. In their way are European royalty. Munster are getting into their flow at these early stages and come into the match at the back of a morale boosting derby victory. I’m always going on about how I think this team are better then they’re showing but I really don’t think the required improvement will come this weekend. A home loss, 8-12 points…… ish.

Treviso – A decent team at home who have improved year on year. They've found themselves in a tough group though. Any of the other 3 teams, Leicester, Ulster and Montpelier are capable of, not only getting out of the pool but challenging in the latter stages. The only role for Treviso is that of a spoiler. Not sure what it says about me but I love that role. Treviso might get themselves a nice scalp in this pool and ruin the entire tournament for their victim. Their first match is against a Montpelier team flying high domestically. Always hard to know how French teams are going to approach this competition but I like what little I've seen of these lads. A scrappy affair, Montpellier win by a margin of around 10 points.

Scarlets – Another great looking group with a few teams looking to qualify. Clermont are the obvious front runners, Harlequins aren't far behind and Racing Metro provide a delightful unknown quantity. Scarlets will huff and puff but just don't have the quality to compete with these big boys. They start with a tough trip to the Stoop where Harlequins will be looking to throw down a marker. They will be disappointed with the definitive manner of their expulsion last year and with the start they've had at home this year. Scarlets won't roll over but Quins have my vote.

Ospreys - Another one! Maybe even the closest group of them in the cup. Every team here, Leinster, Castres, Northampton and The Ospreys, is as good as the rest. I'm going to put Leinster top of my predictions (out of good old fashioned blind loyalty), Ospreys 2nd and the other two I'll leave for now. This is a big game for the Spreys. Having missed an opportunity to make a statement against Ulster Ospreys really need this. Home advantage is a definite plus and there's no doubting the quality they have all over the park. Feel they have it in them. Narrow win to get the ball rolling in a tight group.

Pool 2 – The common wisdom here is that Cardiff, Glasgow and Exeter are fighting to finish 2nd to mighty Toulon. Probably true and Glasgow have that determined look about them these days that makes them most likely to take that spot. Might even give us a surprise if they're consistent against the ''other'' teams and get one shock from their battles with Toulon. Chance is a fine thing and I think the defending champs have what it takes to qualify here.

Cardiff - A trip to Sandy Park to play everyone's second favourite team Exeter. Since their rise to the big leagues Exeter have been a tough and consistent team. In the same space of time Cardiff have shown a frustrating inconsistency. The players are there but it just hasn't happened. With the consistent team playing at home I can only see one result. Exeter will keep ticking away at the score board for a comfortable win. Call it 12 points.

Glasgow - The Warriors are undefeated this year and impressing the mobs. If they can take that form onto the European stage it's anyone's game. It will be a tough group to qualify from and first blood will have to happen soon. A trip to Toulon is a daunting start but it's exactly where they need to be showing their stuff. A quick start will be needed, backed up by an 80 minute performance. Too much too soon for Glasgow. Lots of spit and some good moments but Toulon will come out the other end on top.

That's the weekend. A quick line longer term even though so much can change. Pool toppers - Leinster, Toulon, Saracens, Clermont, Leicester, Perpignan. Best 2nd place, Toulouse, Munster or Harlequins? I'll go Munster. Quins, Glasgow and Ospreys to end up in the Amlin.

Happy watching.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Pro12 Week 4 preview

A look at Round 4 of the Pro12 with a non-Irish slant by Liam Sinclair…

The tedious European wrangling continues and is actually threatening a move on my nerves. A chink of light comes through on the home front to break the monotony! That rarest of rare things! Three cheers for the team who, just last weekend, popped their competitive cherry. Hip Hip! Zebre! Just one part of an unpredictable weekend. Frustrating for the predictors but makes for great watching. Weekend coming, let’s have a look.

Ulster v Treviso; Managed a good win against Munster at the weekend to get their season up and running. Have grown in stature every year they’ve been in this contest and can only be good if they continue on this path. Toughness is a big part of their game which next opponents Ulster can match. It’s going to be a close one but you have to feel Ulster will find their flow. A close game, home victory.

Zebre; At long last! This day has been a long time coming. The day we could take a break from the norm and finally talk about Zebre in a positive way. And away from home and all! So congratulations Zebre it’s good to be able to say good things about you however…….. I think some of the talk has been over the top. One match is not an upsurge or proof of a turn in fortunes. It’s a step alright but it’s just the first. I stated a minimum aim of three wins for the Parmesan upstarts and I stand by this. Great result but let’s not get too excited yet.

Glasgow; Continued their excellent start to the season with victory over champs Leinster. It wasn’t the most stylish of victories but will be taken gleefully. Still 100%, the only team that can claim that. Ringing in the changes for the match upcoming. Ringing the changes for the upcoming game but still a strong team. Will feel they can continue setting the pace.

Match; Glasgow to win a nice, flowing game.

Leinster v Cardiff; Somebody had to be the first team to lose to Zebre. A few close calls did happen but The Blues have taken the spoils. There’s no need for alarm bells just yet, we won’t judge on one performance! The first step on the road to absolution is Dublin. A toughie. Leinster, who did not perform well last weekend welcome back some first teamers and will also be looking to make amends. It’s like a Disney movie. Positive for Cardiff that another Lion comes back in the shape of Captain Sam but, most likely, not enough. Leinster to win fairly comfortably.

Edinburgh; Disappointing if not surprising. Edinburgh have already been on the receiving end of 2 hidings which leaves them bottom. At the risk of repeating myself I think this team have the ability to beat anyone on their day. It’s not a very strong team going out however, a mystical ‘day’ needed even more. Murrayfield is the venue and it really looks an awful place when it’s empty. This can’t be helping the players, must be an alternative?

Scarlets; Loss to the Dragons will have stung. The Pro12 can split into those competing and those not very quickly and if they want to be competitive at the top these are the games they need to be winning. It’s another away trip coming up against a similar team and some serious amends need to be made.

Match; I think I spelt it out pretty well up there. Victory for a determined Scarlets team.

Connacht v Ospreys; So far we’ve seen the Osprey’s team we all know and admire. Playing with style and penetration they are 2^nd in the table with the highest amount of points scored. They travel to Galway with an unbeaten record and a renewed reputation. Defence has been decent and I can’t see past them in this match. Victory for the ‘Spreys.

Munster v Dragons; Underestimate the Dragons at your peril! Victory against 2 teams perceived as stronger is a boost for the underachievers. Does kinda compound the disappointment of losing to equals Edinburgh. Instinct still wants to back Munster. Playing well mostly and at home. Musgrave isn’t the fortress that Thomond is but they should still have enough after a good fight.

Here’s hoping for another unpredictable weekend!

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Pro12 Week 3 preview

A look at Round 3 of the Pro12 with a non-Irish slant by Liam Sinclair…

Rugby news has been dominated this week by dick swinging the on-going debate over the future of the European competition. As I’ve said before I can see merits to both sides of the argument and just hope that some arrangement is made to keep the competition/a competition showing on our screens. In the meantime I’ll continue talking about what we do have as we get to the point where cobwebs should be well and truly shaken off. Some very even matches this weekend with the headline definitely being the showdown at Scotstoun.

Dragons; A mixed start for the Dragons. Big props for their opening day defeat of Ulster was followed by falling short against a team they’re likely to be finishing near come season’s end. While inconsistency might be seen as maddening it’s an improvement on consistently falling short. They seem to be using the grunt available to them well and I can see them continuing their upward curve.

Scarlets; Threw off opening day disappointment in a comfortable victory over Treviso. Early days yet but looking at how other teams are performing I’m getting the feeling that Scarlets are going to have a tough time matching last year’s top 4 finish. The next couple of matches are against The Dragons and Edinburgh, great chance to set a foundation for proving me wrong.

Match; It’s a close one but I think the Scarlets have enough quality to squeak a victory.

Cardiff; Have set themselves up decently for the season getting 5 points in their first 2 matches. Defeat was a close thing from a good performance and victory was an awful affair in bad conditions. Covering off all the necessary skills and with key men on the way back there’s reason for a bit of optimism around Arms Park.

Zebre; Flew out of the traps against Munster, built a decent lead but ended up the wrong side of a hammering. Only positive to be taken is the continued good performances of Orquera at out half. Surely only a matter of time before he attracts the attention of some brighter lights and gets to test himself at a higher level?

Match; Zebre continue to be a parody of themselves and Leigh Halfpenny’s Blues should see this out with relative ease.

Glasgow v Leinster; Played 2, won 2. There’s really not much more you can ask for at this stage of the season. Beating Ulster away adds a decent shine to the stat and must be taken as a serious statement of intent. The tests come thick and fast though with Leinster next it’s man or boy time. Interesting clash as they are on an 8 game unbeaten run at home and Leinster an 8 game unbeaten run away. Somebody’s record has to end this weekend. Time to shine for The Warriors? I think so. It’ll be a tough one on the eyes but they’ll scrape victory here.

Treviso v Munster; Treviso have not started well at all and are second last in the table with one losing BP to show for their toils. Next up are Munster, sitting pretty with as many points as have been available to them. It’s hard to call them since even Munster fans I was talking to before the start of the season weren’t expecting much from them this year. If this was the first match of the season I’d be comfortable calling home win here but a lot has changed in that short space of time. Still having a tough time, can I come back later? No? OK Munster victory it is, somewhere between 3 and 7 points.

Ospreys; Showed up at the RDS and left us, once again, with that ‘’what just happened’’ feeling. Making chances and taking chances is a decent way to win matches and when defence is sorted out this clinical approach will reap serious dividends. Resembling their former selves again this will be a big season for the ‘Spreys.

Edinburgh; A win is a win. Some points on the board for Edinburgh and hopefully looking upwards and wanting more. Still question marks over the mental strength of this squad and some tough matches ahead I feel that their season is going to be defined before Christmas. Makes all these upcoming matches, Ospreys, Scarlets, Cardiff, Treviso, very important with at least 2 wins needed. A big ask and probably too much, foundations being set for another disappointing season.

Match; Ospreys really impressed me so far and I think there’s 5 points for them here if they want them.

Not much to it again, enjoy the rugby.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

PS; Glasgow Warriors will have a ‘’resident referee providing background to the decisions made by the referees’’ on Twitter. Sounds dead interesting. Anyone that agrees follow @rugbyreflink.

Pro12 Week 2 preview

A look at Round 2 of the Pro12 with a non-Irish slant by Liam Sinclair…

A fairly standard bunch of matches to kick off. One shock, always nice so thanks Dragons. Coming thick and fast now so let’s jump back in. Week 2!

Cardiff v Connacht; A decent outing against Glasgow sees Cardiff start the year with a losing BP. Not an ideal start sure, but not the worst. Coming up next is a home game against one of the league’s lesser lights. This is the type of match Cardiff need to be winning with a minimum of fuss and how this goes could set the tone for the season. I do like what I saw at the weekend so I’m calling a home win here. Fuss probably won’t be minimal though.

Ulster v Glasgow; Glasgow did what they had to on opening day. Their net two fixtures come against last year’s finalists and having some points in the bag will stand to them. Up first are Ulster who were the shock of the week in defeat to The Dragons. One match does not a bad team make though and Glasgow will be up against it in the shiny new Ravenhill. A close one but Ulster look the most likely to take the spoils after a close, messy, game.

Zebre v Munster; There is a temptation with Zebre to just keep predicting they’ll win until it happens and then tell everyone you knew that you saw it coming. It would definitely be more fun than the glib, cynical tone I’d descended into last year. Not yet. Munster will have too much for the beasts of the savannah and I expect them to win comfortably. There’s two doable matches for Zebre next month where ‘’the plan’’ might be sprung!

Edinburgh; Disappointing. A heavy defeat that couldn’t be glossed over by a late surge. Edinburgh are the team most in need of a good start because they will, as like as anything, stop putting the effort in. Is it a bit early to talk about a season unravelling? Probably but the sooner the better we get some positive results. Concentration will be the key, forward and back, for the full 80 minutes.

Dragons; Pulled off the shock of the weekend by beating, an admittedly off colour, Ulster. That said there’s some great points in the bag to serve as a jumping off point for the men of Gwent. Big question now is if they can build on this?

Match; A clash unlikely to go down in the ages. Motivation for both teams will be two sides of the same coin. Edinburgh need to find their feet and The Dragons will want to build on a positive start. As things stand these teams can be considered equals. Have to pick someone so Edinburgh it is.

Leinster v Ospreys; Job done for the ‘Spreys on day one. These are the wins they need to be getting to hit the heights they’ve gotten used to over the last few seasons. Not as dominant as they’d hope but Treviso would never lie down and die for anyone. A tricky one coming up this weekend. Leinster will still be short few first teamers and if they’re to be taken, now’s the time. Definitely think they’ll bring a scare but Leinster will win in front of the RDS faithful.

Scarlets; A strange one for Scarlets at the weekend. Looked comfortable at the start but ended up on the wrong end of a hammering. A lot of positives but definitely need to be turning possession into points. If they can cut out the handling errors a force to be reckoned with.

Treviso; Showed their usual grunt and vigour to get out of the weekend with a losing BP. Their development is well on track and still think they will equal their league finish from last year.

Match; A lot depends on Scarlets ability to close this off. If they get the phases going they should be good value for the win.

Not out on a limb on any of these I don’t think. Enjoy the weekend.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

The Pro12 is back!

A warm HoR2 welcome back to Liam Sinclair who once again will be keeping tabs on the Non-Irish teams in the Pro12…

It’s that time of the year again. The past is pigeon holed and optimistic eyes gaze eagerly into the future. Harpin’ On Rugby have extended my contract another year and I look forward to throwing my glib musings into the ring of public opinion.

My particular focus will, as usual, be the coming and goings of the non-Irish teams that make up our beautifully eclectic domestic competition. Improvement is needed across the board so we’ll use the first matches to set some goals.

Scarlets v Leinster; The weekend kicks off with the one team from my column’s remit where standing still would be a successful season. That is, however, a big ask. A superstar has left who’s just plain irreplaceable, performances will drop. I feel they’ll be in the scrap but will fall short over the course of the season. Europe is a write off as well. In a group with heavyweights Clermont, Quins and Racing Metro the best they can hope for is to be the team that ruins it for someone. A tough season ahead.

Starts off with a toughie against the reigning champions. I expect this to be a close one with an exciting Leinster team coming out victorious.

Dragons v Ulster; Second last and miles behind. Realistically the only way is up……..? Every team needs to win their matches at home and they will have to go aggressively after the other teams at the bottom of the middle Connacht, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Treviso. These are teams that will also be looking up and a tough season lies ahead for the men of Gwent.

First up in the supposed fortress are last year’s table toppers. Ulster seem to have kept the positive feeling generated over the past couple of years simmering and will come out here with all guns blazing. Too much for the Dragons.

Glasgow; A pleasure to watch last year as they made their way comfortably into the Semis. There’s no reason for this team to, not only equal, but improve on last year. A final appearance is the least of my expectations. Europe is going to be difficult. Champions Toulon, hard, effective Exeter and equals Cardiff. Not holding out a huge amount hope there.

Cardiff; The biggest under achievers last year, improvement needed urgently. There’s definitely the players. Leigh Halfpenny, Sam Warburton? Names that I’m sure ring a bell with most of you. I’m going to trot out the cliché again; home victories a must for a solid run at the top spots. Thinking they’ll fall a bit short, 6-8^th. Same European group as this weekend’s rivals and 3^rd is the highest they can hope for.

Last year’s table suggests a big gap between these two teams. I don’t think this is the case and this match will be close. Glasgow are that bit more stylish in attack and should do the job at home.

Connacht v Zebre; Not hard to set a basic goal for Zebre given that just one victory would be an improvement. A lot was said about how close they came on occasion but for me having zero in the games won column is unacceptable no matter the circumstances. I’m setting the goal of 3 wins for them but don’t see them getting any higher up the table. With Toulouse and Saracens to contend with in Europe and Connacht as the third what’s the bets there’s two quarter finalists coming out of this group?

Munster v Edinburgh; Very similar to Cardiff, Edinburgh are a team who feel they should be higher up the table. New coach has been brought in and they will be looking right upwards to those playoff spots. We’re a year or two too early for that but improvement is likely. In Europe they face a group that will be tough but not impossible. Perpignan probably the favourites but with concentration and a chunk of luck anything’s possible.

A trip to Musgrave starts off. No easy task but I think if they come out quick and fierce there’s a win here for them.

Treviso; Finished top of the bottom half last year and managed, at times, to play prettily on their way there. More of the same will be ok but no reason to not look up. They were only four points off 6^th and this is where I see them finishing. In Europe they face an impossible task against heavy hitters Montpellier, Tigers and Ulster. Once again the best hope is to ruin it for somebody else.

Ospreys; Four points off the playoff spots last year. That’s one or two results. The four time champs have to be aiming to be top dogs again. Definitely doable, need to hit the ground running. In Europe they are in an exciting group where anyone can beat anyone. Once again it’s a matter of definitely winning your home games and trying your hardest away. If they do qualify they’ll be primed, tough and ready for the challenges ahead. Another big year beckons for Justin Tipuric.

This fixture last year ended in victory for the underdogs. Not again. Osprey’s should navigate this banana skin.

In summary; (Leinster)Glasgow-Ospreys(Munster,Ulster)-Cardiff-Scarlets-Treviso-Edinburgh(Connacht)-Dragons-Zebre. Or something along those lines.

Happy New Season everybody.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

The Pro12 season so far

The Pro12 hasn’t gone away you know! Liam Sinclair has a look at how the Welsh, Scottish & Italian teams are doing…

I know you’re all beat into the 6 Nations which started last weekend but if I could just take a moment of your time I’d like to take a look at where the Non-Irish Pro12 teams stand compared to expectations. Won’t take long. I swear.

Benetton Treviso;

8th in the Pro12, 4^th in their Heineken Cup pool Treviso are good value for their league position. Strengthening their reputation as a team that are hard to beat and well on the way to consistent 80 minute performances. They have put emphasis on their home form, oft seen as pivotal for a team’s success.

High Points; While victories in both derby matches v Zebre would’ve been satisfying and beating an in-form Scarlets was decent the stand out high are victories over reigning Pro12 champs Ospreys, once each per competition.

Low Points; Near miss against Ulster chafed, shipping 41 points to Glasgow wasn’t ideal but by far the most disappointing part of the campaign was in the Heineken Cup’s Pool 2. Competed in every match and might have been a different story had they not been surrounded by such quality teams.

Goals Moving Forward; Keep doing what they’re doing. 8^th is an acceptable position for the Italians. Keep the performances coming, find some consistency and the project is where it should be.

Cardiff Blues;

Disappointingly 7^th domestically and a H-Cup campaign to forget. Lack of consistency is the main killer having failed to win more than two matches in a row all season. Both those ‘’runs’’ involved victory over Newport. I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions there. 6^th are a distant ahead and could even be looking over their shoulders at Treviso 1 point behind.

High Points; Few and far between. Any compliments have a shined turd feel to them but victory over Munster in their most recent outing deserves a mention.

Low Points; A little easier. Shipping 48 at home to Ulster and 59 away to Leinster must be hard ones to swallow but starting their European campaign by gifting a rudderless Sale victory must be the lowest.

Goals Moving Forward; Damage control. This season is a write off but a run of wins to cement current position is needed to have something to build on next year.

Edinburgh;

What can be said of this year’s Edinburgh side? I had rated them for an assault on the playoff spots at the expense of a decent European campaign. Dead bottom of the overall Heineken cup table and 9^th in the Pro12. Really just the best of the non-contenders. Does that count as half right? Already a season to forget.

High Points; Em…..? Beating The Ospreys was alright……. I suppose.

Low Points; Double derby defeats definitely disappointed, shipping 40+ v Ulster not ideal. We head to European competition once again for biggest failure. Finishing bottom of their pool with 0 points, lower than Zebre, is bad enough but failing to register a single point in the opening 2 rounds is embarrassing. Last year’s semi-finalists remember.

Goals Moving Forward; Much the same as Cardiff, the rest of the season is about steadying the ship. With the final four fixtures being against the teams nearest them (Zebre A, Connacht H, Treviso A, NGD H) a run of wins can see them as ‘’best of the rest’’.

Glasgow;

Sit 2^nd in the Pro12 behind rampant Ulster. Where they want to be and certainly beat my expectations. Another of my teams that disappointed in Europe but small satisfaction to be gained having ruined it for Northampton on the final day.

High Points; No outstanding achievements really, Glasgow seem to just do the simple things right. Back to back derby wins always a good thing, beating Ospreys in Swansea not to be sneezed at and registering 30+ v NGD and 40+ v Zebre enough to put a smile on the face. I’m a fan of their wrecking job on Northampton’s hopes but maybe I’m just not a great person?

Low Points; Again nothing major. Disappointing in Europe but not embarrassed. The 0-6 at home to Leinster didn’t make for great watching.

Goals Moving Forward; I can’t fault a thing. Glasgow need to keep doing what they’re doing and they should be OK.

Newport Gwent Dragons;

Domestic mid table obscurity beckons once again and might even be looking over their shoulders at Treviso and Connacht. Surprisingly tough Challenge cup group from which they won’t qualify. A nothing season.

This is what I said before the season started. The Dragons are 11^th in the Pro12 and finished 3^rd in their Challenge Cup pool. About right.

High Points; Have recorded victories over Zebre(37-6), Edinburgh(32-12) and Connacht(14-3).

Low Points; Have shipped 40+ twice this season (v Leinster and Ulster).

Goals Moving Forward; Don’t lose to Zebre and get at least 1 victory on the road. Both can be achieved in Parma on 24/2.

Ospreys;

After a slow start The ‘Spreys have worked themselves into the Play-Off positions. 4^th domestically, 3^rd in their European pool making them the best performing Non-Irish Pro12 team in the contest. Didn’t embarrass themselves in Pool 2 and may even be contemplating what could’ve been.

High Points; Ending the winning start of rivals Llanelli was satisfying, doubling up on it by hammering them a few months later was the icing on the cake, continuing their good form over Leinster, a solid victory over Munster worth a mention. The biggest hurray goes to the Heineken Cup victory over Toulouse. An achievement for any side.

Low Points; No disrespect to Treviso but the Ospreys will feel they should be beating them so two defeats are hard to take. The second especially as it came on the tails of a disappointing draw with Leicester, a match they should have won on the day.

Goals Moving Forward; Another one that doesn’t require much thinking. Keep winning matches. A good mix of fixtures coming up.

Scarlets;

A good start has petered out somewhat leaving Scarlets in a not too shabby 5^th. Europe was disappointing but there was always the feeling that they didn’t have the squad for 2 competitions.

High Points; A good victory over Leinster on day 1 remains the most pleasing part of the Scarlet’s season.

Low Points; Exeter would have liked to emerge from Europe with at least 1 victory. The double headers against Exeter will be seen as a missed opportunity, especially at home. The biggest let down though has to be the absence of their Welsh contingent when Ulster came to town for what was a 1^st v 2^nd clash. Wales’ decision to play an extra Autumn International (which they lost) may have had a bearing on what ended up a narrow defeat. This was compounded by a hammering in the return fixture and will be looked at come season’s end as a missed opportunity.

Goals Moving Forward; 1) Stop getting injuries. 2) Reel in the Spreys who are a point ahead. 3) Don’t let Munster, a point behind, catch up. Simple really.

Zebre;

Not a lot to be said. Aironi 2.0 have performed exactly as expected. Dead last in the Pro12, dead last in Europe’s pool 3. Not a single victory to their name.

High Points; They haven’t been wound up by FIR. Some of the girls in the crowd are stunning. (Maybe the blokes as well?)

Low Points; Take your pick from the matches. Their name is kinda crap.

Goals Moving Forward; Win a match.

That’s how I see it. Used the word ‘’disappointing’’ a lot when talking of Europe but sure there’s always next year. You may go back to 6 Nations chat.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Diving into the pools

It’s time to for the word “permutations” to be bandied about yet again and Liam Sinclair is on hand to crunch the Heineken Cup numbers…

The last two pool matches in the Heineken Cup has all rugby nerds reaching for the pencils and calculators to figure out what they think will happen and what they need to happen for the benefit of their own team. Personally I think that trying to predict the outcomes of 24 matches and put teams into their correct position is folly and foolishness of the highest order which will only lead to ridicule and embarrassment!

Here’s what I think will happen.

Pool 1

Saracen’s currently sit atop Pool 1 with 14 points with Racing Metro (12) and Munster (11) not far behind. 2/2 wins for the Sarries with a BP in the fixture at home to Edinburgh should leave them respectably on top with 23 points at end of play. Munster should also be able to win both their matches starting with a trip away to Edinburgh and be left with 19 points. Racing Metro, in my opinion, are being treated fairly cheaply by wags Europe wide where the opinion is that they were lucky in round 1 and therefore don’t stand a chance in Thomond. I am predicting a loss for them but I feel it will be a more straightforward scenario based on their famed flakiness rather than just ‘what goes around comes around’ + Magic of Thomond = the inevitable. Losing BP not a stretch for them in either of their remaining fixtures.

Pool 2

It’s tight. A pool that looked like trouble from the day the draw was made has managed to splutter to the final stages with Leicester and Toulouse in strong contention and The Ospreys in with an outside chance. Pack leaders Leicester travel to the Liberty stadium next and will leave with a point while Toulouse will get maximum returns at home to Treviso moving them up to first. We will be left with Toulouse 18, Leicester 15 and Ospreys 13 going into round 6. Leicester v Toulouse is the grandstand fixture here and we have a must-win situation for both teams. Anyone would rather be at home under these circumstances and I see a 4-1 split in Leicester’s favour. Both teams on 19 points with top going to Toulouse thanks to their resounding victory in round 1. Ospreys in third with 17 points.

Pool 3

A pool that had 2 qualifiers written all over it hasn’t gone to script. Harlequins are 10 points ahead of Biarritz and only need a losing BP at home to Connacht to guarantee progression. They’ll go a few better with a BP win. Biarritz should make short work of Zebre this weekend but defeat to Connacht in The Sportsground was a killer blow for Biarritz which would have changed the complexion of the final day showdown with Harlequins. As it stands it’s a nothing game for the Basques which should see the more motivated Quins claim victory and number 1 seeding for the knockouts. Connacht will finish on a high by defeating Zebre leaving Quins 28, BO 15, Connacht 8 and a dismal, but not unexpected, 0 for Aironi 2.0.

Pool 4

Ulster are top and have their faith in their own hands. With a home game against Glasgow up first their position is a strong one. They should navigate this fixture and Northampton will beat Castres leaving Ulster firmly in control. In round 6 Ulster will travel to Castres and I think it will be a journey too far. A defeat with a BP leaving them with a healthy 20 points. I fel at the start of the season that Glasgow had it in them to wreck the season for one of the stronger teams in this pool but I think this ship has sailed. Northampton to claim a narrow victory in Scotstoun putting them 2^nd with 18 points.

Pool 5

Clermont are the other team (along with Harlequins) who can seal qualification this weekend. They welcome Exeter to Stade Marcel Michelin and consecutive victory No.54 will be notched up. A trip to Parc Y Scarlets the following week should bring more points and a home quarter final. Leinster are a team to watch. They need maximum points and for things to go their way in other pools. Starting in Dublin against Llanelli is their best chance of maximum returns. With the RDS crown behind them, a quick start and a relentless continuation of early momentum 5 points are gettable. Victory should be well within their capabilities in Sandy Park but I don’t see the BP coming in Exeter. 9 points is the return from the last two matches. That leaves Clermont with 26 and Leinster with 19 and keen eyes on the other pools. Exeter can be very happy with a return of 9 points in their debut season and I’m looking forward to seeing more of these guys in the future.

Pool 6

Toulon are undefeated and top of Pool 6. Second favourites, after Clermont, to lift the thing. Cardiff travel to Toulon with nothing but pride to play for and this star studded line-up will be ready. They will comfortably dispatch the Welsh side and record the maximum 5 points. Closest rivals Montpellier will go to Sale needing a BP win to keep them in contention but will only get the 4 points. Going into the final day showdown Toulon will be on 23 and Montpelier 17. The home team in this fixture will not be able to top this group but will still have a chance at the 7^th or 8^th quarter final spot. Toulon will also be playing for seeding and it’s likely to be the tie of the round. With the quality the Toulon squad have it’s difficult to see past them and Montpelier’s European involvement will end here. Comfortable win for Wilkinson’s boys leaving the table Toulon 27, Montpelier 17. Cardiff will welcome Sale to Cardiff Arms and victory should be enough to leapfrog the struggling Premiership side.

Where does this leave us? I’ve given home quarter finals to first and second favourites Clermont (13/5) and Toulon (11/4), a third to joint third favourite’s Harlequins (7/1. I backed them at 10/1 before a ball was kicked) and the last to ambitious Premiership side Saracens (14/1).

The travelling contingent will consist of pool winners Ulster (Joint 3^rd favourites with Quins at 7/1) and Toulouse (10/1).

Of the 2^nd place finishers I’ve left Munster, Leicester and Leinster on 19 points. Leicester’s 11 tries so far should be a good enough starting point to get them into the first spot leaving Munster and Leinster battling for the second. As it stands Munster lead the try count 7-3 and I don’t think Leinster will do enough to overtake this. Head over heart time and Munster will get the last spot.

1. Harlequins-28

2. Toulon-27

3. Clermont-26

4. Saracens-23

5. Ulster-20

6. Toulouse-19

7. Leicester-19

8. Munster-19

Harlequins v Munster

Toulon v Leicester

Clermont v Toulouse

Saracens v Ulster

There are a couple of quality ties there with the royalty v pretender a theme in three. We’ll see what happens.

A quick word on my own team, Leinster. Though I’ve left them out here I don’t think it will take a set of results in the miracle bracket to see them through to one of the second spots. A dropped point or an unexpected result somewhere and they’re in as good a position as any to pounce. As I said we’ll see what happens.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Follow this link to make your own predictions and win prizes via the Heineken Score Predictor

The Only Way Is Up?

It has been a season of European woe for the Non-Irish Pro12 that’s likely to continue, writes Liam Sinclair…

Back again after a short break. I hope that you all had a pleasant Christmas. You were probably sick though weren’t you? Everyone was but sure don’t be worrying you’re better now/on the road to repair.

An interesting statistic to start us off; of the 7 teams watched in this article 6 are bottom of their pools without a single victory recorded. 2 of those 6 haven’t even got a BP for their toils. It’s a tough aul’ cookie to be swallowing but we’ll dive in and see if there’s any chance of an upward trend in fortunes.

Ulster v Glasgow; Two teams coming off big wins last weekend leaving them side by side atop the Pro12 table. Despite the similarities there is clear contrast. Namely their opposing fortunes in Europe. Glasgow are bottom of Pool 4 without a win to their names and out of the competition. 3 places above them in 1st are a rampant Ulster widely expected to continue in winning ways and secure a home quarter final. From this angle, especially when home advantage is factored in, it seems clear cut. An Ulster victory to keep them in the driver’s seat.

Zebre v Biarritz; Let’s not travel too far down this road. Zebre just aren’t good enough to be competing at this level. Their near miss in the Liberty Stadium is more a story of what The Ospreys did wrong and I’m comfortable leaving that in isolation. When it’s not meant to be it’s not meant to be and this video sums up Zebre’s season. Biarritz to win.

Toulon v Cardiff; 7^th domestically, 11 points off the play-off spots and rock bottom of Pool six on an underwhelming 1 this season is fast becoming one to forget for the men from the Welsh capital. A tricky trip to Munster navigated more solidly than most expected has Cardiff heading to Toulon with a victory under their belts. The Top14 pace setters pulled off a shock of their own by falling at home to the mercurial Parisians of Racing Metro. It would be a stretch to see this as anything more than two blips randomly converging. Toulon ooze quality from 1-23 and it’s hard to imagine them losing two on the trot. Especially at home. The -21 offered by the bookies seems about right. A BP win for the Galacticos of Cote d’Azur.

Leinster v Scarlets; The past weekend must’ve felt like a kick in the gut to Scarlet’s fans. A promising start to the season is in danger of derailment after defeat to Ulster saw them drop from the play-off spots for the first time this season. Where there was an element of sympathy for Scarlets in the reverse fixture due to circumstances beyond their control this was nothing short of capitulation. (Taking nothing away from Ulster. They were excellent) Nothing left to play for but pride in Pool 5 a win would be handy to lift flagging spirits. Waiting in Dublin are a Leinster team who look to be approaching some approximation of the Leinster team we’ve gotten used to in the Joe Schmidt era and who need to win big. They’ll come flying out of the traps and relentlessly attack. Llanelli have a hard couple of weeks ahead of them. Defeat for the Welsh.

Edinburgh v Munster; 4 defeats out of 4, 112 points conceded with a return of 12. Ladies and gentlemen may I introduce last year’s semi-finalists. The promise shown last season has disappeared without a trace this term in Europe and at home. Its five losses in a row and, even at this early stage, season is essentially over. Visitors Munster blow hot and cold. The ruthless dismissal of an Ulster team, unbeaten at the time, was followed by a home reversal to a mediocre Cardiff team. Form is still very much on their side when compared to Edinburgh and they still have plenty to fight for. Despite this I still think it’s a tough one to call. I left this and came back to it and I’ve decided to go for a narrow Munster win.

Ospreys v Leicester; The standard bearers for my boys in Europe with a whopping two wins! Round 4’s victory over Toulouse is a decent addition to anyone’s CV and it leaves them with an outside chance of securing second and moving onto the knock-out stages of one of the European competitions. It really is an outside chance though with BP wins needed and the Tigers coming to town. A night to forget against Zebre is not ideal but I do think the Ospreys have the beating of Leicester in them. It won’t be qualification but ruining it for someone else is the next best thing and there’s a chance of that. A perfect set-up for a grandstand final day in Pool 2.

Toulouse v Treviso; I could fill an entire page with clichés and platitudes describing Treviso’s honesty and ruggedness but no matter how positive the spin they are what they are, a decent mid-table side in the Pro12. This is not meant in a bad way as I think they have developed as well as they could and there is every chance they can build on it. This year this will be as good as it gets. They prepared for their trip to Stade Ernest Wallon by shipping 41 points in Glasgow. Hardly ideal. Treviso should try to enjoy the day out because victory will be beyond them and tries will be conceded. BP win for Toulouse.

So I’m not confident again this week but why would I? Main thing is to watch and enjoy the quality rugby on offer. Until next time.

Special thanks to Kev (@diabeto1201) for pointing me towards the above video.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Regional rivalries take centre stage

It’s derby time in all the Pro-12 nations, Liam Sinclair looks at the Non-Irish ones…

Another desperate weekend for my charges in European action with Ospreys the only team getting a win (what a scalp to be fair) bringing their total, and ours, to two. With 28 matches played this is a win rate of 7%* Dismal especially as this competition is targeted by the teams in the Pro12 to the detriment of all other facets of their lives. Conspiracy theories anyone? We’re back to the Pro12 now with a fragmented festival program full with derbies. The weekend brings these jewels.

*Google, correct me if I’m wrong.

Cardiff; The massively disappointing Cardiff continued to underwhelm in Europe. In a group with the shocking Sale Sharks they’ve still failed to register a win. All around outlook is pretty glum and the rest of the season looks like an exercise in damage minimisation. Home comforts are cold comforts for the Blues with only one of their four victories coming in front of their own fans.

Scarlets; Flirting dangerously close to monotony with my repetition but, under the circumstances, I’m left with little choice. Here it goes…. Scarlets will be happy to forget about the last two week’s European fixtures coming away, as they did, with only a losing BP for their rigours. At home they are a decent 2^nd with every right to be looking upwards. (No harm in a quick look over the shoulder every now and then just so you know where you stand.) Even in defeat Scarlet’s avoid embarrassment and have won BP in all three of their defeats.

The Match; Derby day and the intensity it can bring aside this is not a contender for upset. Scarlets have the quality and form to navigate this fixture. Away win.

Glasgow; The Warriors lost their double header by an aggregate score of 19-15. The glass half full part of me will congratulate them on their low concession; defensive solidity is not a bad habit. The other glass tells another story. Both these fixtures were winnable against an indifferent Castres who shouldn’t have been allowed stumble to second. The general theme of mediocrity aside Glasgow are in a good position (5^th and only a point off 4^th) in the Pro12 but aren’t in good form. They won 6 in a row but lost their mojo and have been turned over in their last 2 (Only a point above 6^th) Need to turn things around if they want to be competing at the end of the season.

Edinburgh; Used the European matches very well. Went in with an average score of 0 and came out having brought that average up to 3. A threefold improvement in attack is a credit to any team and they deserve all the accolades gotten as a result….. *ahem* I devolved to pettiness earlier than expected, probably best to move on. After a ropey start to the season the lads from the Scots capital look like they might be turning things around. Won their last 2 and have dragged themselves to 7^th.

The Match; The contrast in form is interesting here. Stark indeed with Edinburgh winning 2 to end a losing streak of 5 and Glasgow doing essentially the opposite. The form team are the away team as well to make things just a little more interesting. I’ll plump for the home team whose try scoring form should be enough to get them the win.

Zebre; What can you say about Zebre that hasn’t already been said. The youngest team in Europe just can’t find form or break their duck. 80 minutes is still beyond them and I don’t see much changing in the near future.

Treviso; A tough group for poor Treviso, they never really stood a chance and the weekend’s result is a credit to them. Tough to turn over at home the work in progress is proceeding apace. Their last match in this competition was a BP win over the Dragons. Being ruthless against your nearest rivals is a good way of getting above the also-rans and will be needed in the festive derby double headers.

The Match; A home match against the other Italian team is a good opportunity for Zebre to get their first win. We’ve been down this road before. Treviso should be able to replicate their performances against Leicester and The Dragons to get the win here.

Ireland- Leinster and Connacht to win. Narrowly.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Hope is all that’s left for the Non-Irish Pro12

Round 3 of the Heineken Cup was one to forget, writes Liam Sinclair…

Another bleak week for the Non-Irish Pro12 teams. No wins again despite four eminently winnable fixtures leaving the win count stuck on a maddening 1. Once again there are opportunities but optimism is increasingly tough to conjure up…let’s just have a look.

Castres v Glasgow;  A very disappointing result. There was a real opportunity here for Glasgow to get some points on the board and they gave them up with barely a whimper. The Castres coaching team are making all the right noises regarding their desire to progress in this competition but we all know it’s just talk and the Top14 is the real goal for most of these teams. Yep, opportunity lost. The Warriors take this result over to France where it’s always more difficult and will find it hard to turn things around. Given that Castres are still in the running they might even bring it. Won’t take much to overturn a demoralised Glasgow side, Home win.

Exeter v Scarlets; The weekend’s defeat signals the end to whatever slim hopes the Llanelli men had for progression in this competition. Even if elimination was a foregone conclusion it is disappointing that they haven’t recorded a home win for the fans. Their last chance to win in Parc Y Scarlets comes against the yellow fury of the tournament’s joint favourites. A lot to ask. There were questions, in my mind at least, over the ability of this squad to mount any real assault on two fronts and results so far have borne this out. The return trip in this round of matches will see them travel to Exeter. Low on spirit, confidence and other such intangibles it will be a long day for them. In a lot of cases what they might have going for them is that debutant teams have a goal of one win and might take their foot off the gas once achieved. Not Exeter. One thing I’ve admired in them during our short acquaintance is the steel and doggedness they bring every time they play so don’t expect them to roll over here. A defeat for the Welsh province and a refocus back to their promising Pro12 campaign.

Ospreys v Toulouse; Toulouse did what was required, 5 points and in the pool’s driving seat. They will still want to win here to give themselves the best cushion possible heading into the final fixtures with a trip to Welford Road an intimidating prospect. Any slim qualification chances the Spreys have will have to start with a win here. They’ll go for it no doubt but Toulouse are the masters of doing enough. They’ll soak up any attack, keep the scoreboard ticking over going forward and emerge victorious.

Harlequins v Zebre; Why break the habit of a lifetime? Zebre surprised no-one with the continuation of a losing streak which must be, at least nearing, a record for this level of competition and looks to have the momentum to continue indefinitely. Conceding 57 points in the process, as if an exclamation point was needed. A double header against the struggling Italian franchise is a gift from heaven for a team with ambition and Quins, thanks partially to results elsewhere in their pool, should have qualification wrapped up after their next 80 minutes. If they feel the need to challenge themselves beating the points total from the weekend gone is doable.

Edinburgh v Racing Metro; Edinburgh were frustrating and left a lot of points on the pitch. Hard to be motivated in the circumstances to be fair but they should take some small heart from the continuation of their general improvement. A major plus was the actual scoring of points. Bravo. Racing’s biggest enemy is the general French lack of interest in the Heineken Cup. If they have any sense they will look at the table, look at a video of Munster v Sarries and sense opportunity. A win would put them right in contention but it’s a tough one to call. A lot depends on which team motivates themselves the best for the day. When undecided go for the home team. Edinburgh to win but not by much.

Montpellier v Cardiff; Did the red card change the game? Cardiff stayed competitive up to, and even past the hour mark though Montpellier were comfortable. No-one can ever know what would’ve happened had it been 15 against 15 for the duration and the French could only play what was in front of them. With an outside chance of qualification and home advantage I can’t see past a Montpellier victory.

Treviso v Leicester; Not the greatest compliment in the world but Treviso are probably the strongest contenders for ‘’least bad team in defeat of the weekend’’. Not the catchiest title but the good names are saved for actual winners. It’s more of the same platitudes regarding doggedness and improvement etc. but their performance when so far behind was impressive. For the sake of perspective we’ll ask the question, did Leicester relax a bit once the five points were secured? Maybe a little but that doesn’t need to take too much away from the display. Treviso have home advantage in this leg and may be a factor. The romantic in me wants a Treviso win here and an Ospreys win in the pool’s other fixture making the group tight and creating a great finale. Don’t think Treviso have it in them. Leicester know what they have to do and will get the win. Don’t see a BP win though.

As I said not much to look forward to for us at the Non-Irish Pro12 but we live in hope. Should be a good weekend overall though. Happy watching.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Double trouble ahead?

Are the Non-Irish Pro12 teams playing for Heineken Cup pride or is there still hope? asks Liam Sinclair

The double headers. Excitement, intrigue, delight and disappointment. While Leinster, Munster and Ulster are hogging the best headline matches and the world watches a scarily good Toulon’s next step, we of the Non-Irish Pro12 are just hoping we can add to the one win we’ve clocked up so far. Some toughies but there’s potential…..

Glasgow v Castres; Glasgow head into the European weekend in the desperate throes of a blip. They had been on a six game run domestically but consecutive losses to fellow top 4 contenders Leinster and Munster have seen them drop out of those positions. They don’t really have much to fight for, being bottom with 0 points but after the Heineken Cup fixtures it’s derby time so some good form would be welcome. Coming to visit are an in-form Castres team. Unbeaten in France in their last five, 1/2 in Europe they enter the game with every right to be looking up. The flipside of this is the French middles indifference to the European competition. Castres might have more interest in protecting their 4^th place in the Top14 and this will dilute their focus especially away from home. A lot to ponder but I think at home to French opposition is doable for Glasgow.

Scarlets v Exeter; Seen by many as a battle for higher also-ran status. Scarlets won’t be in this mind set and will see these matches as the beginning of their path to redemption. 9 points is the minimum needed if they are to go into their last two matches with a chance of qualifying and they probably need Leinster and Clermont to beat each other as well. A lot to ask and this is before taking the return matches against Leinster and Clermont into consideration. Exhausting, daunting….. Impossible? First things first, Exeter. Solid and hardworking Exeter are doing well in their second season in the Premiership. Not a bad team they will want to get at least one victory in their maiden H-Cup campaign and Scarlets are the most likely to give it to them. Not this week though. Scarlets won’t get the five points they need but they will win this.

Toulouse v Ospreys; The Non-Irish Pro12 match of the weekend. Ospreys can, on their day, beat anyone in Europe. Four results against big guns Leicester and Toulouse were probably out of their reach. Starting out with a standard home victory against Italians and standard away defeat to European royalty leaves them in a respectable 2^nd but it’s more European royalty next. Toulouse prepared for this fixture by beating Clermont and will be ready for the visiting Welsh pretenders. They will do their usual Toulouse trick of doing just enough. A home victory.

Zebre v Harlequins; Not much analysis to be done here. Harlequins have been patchy of late with their last 6 matches reading W3, L3. They’ve conceded losing BP in all 3 wins so the swashbuckling Quins have been in hiding of late. But……. It’s Zebre. They were thrown together and they’ve never ever, ever won. Ever. Quins have shown already that they learned from last year’s trip-up in Connacht and will take Zebre apart like some sort of Serengeti simile.

Racing Metro v Edinburgh; Edinburgh are slightly ahead of favourites Zebre in the contest for the coveted ‘Aironi award for awfulness’. They’ve lost both their games to nil and are rock bottom of a tough group. Domestically they seem to be turning things around having won their last 2 and ending a 5 game losing streak. A lot will depend on the attitude they bring to the game. Will they want to win to keep things rolling or will they lose heart knowing it’s not leading anywhere? Racing Metro are in a similar situation in the Top14 having ended their own losing streak by beating city rivals Stade Francais but they are in better condition in this competition. If they are serious about advancing this match is must win. At home I think they have them. Racing to win but not by much.

Cardiff Blues v Montpellier; Probably the least intriguing group in this year’s competition. Toulon are 4/1 favourites to lift the cup and a ridiculous 1/80 to qualify from the group. Makes this fixture a bit of a dead rubber. It doesn’t help that the scenario is very similar to the Glasgow v Castres match above. French team doing well at home and not wanting to endanger that visits Celtic team in need of a pre-derby lift. Once again I think home advantage will defeat French indifference. A rare occurrence but I think Soccerball’s Manc derby will have my attention while I wait for Clermont v Leinster.

Leicester v Treviso; Treviso are a team on the rise and seem to be making good on the promise shown last season. Domestically at least. They have a lot to do to improve on or even equal the respectable 7 points they got in last year’s contest in what was also a tough group. Next step is a trip to Leicester who made short work of The Ospreys last time out. It was a must win after a disappointing opening and showed they can bring it when they need to. Treviso will bring it and things will be close until half time. Quality will show through by the end and Leicester will get their win.

The double headers. Can’t wait.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Top two clash the highlight of Pro12 weekend

We’re not happy here at HoR covering just the Irish provinces in the RaboPro12, so throughout the season Liam Sinclair will keep an eye on the rest of the league for us.

So…… I played a mare last week.

I know the problem though and sourcing is the first step towards fixing. I mixed a hangover with attempts at cleverness. No more! Only attempt cleverness while alert and sober. It’s not all bad though.

Using my poor photo editing skills I’ve taken out Bonus Points and compared the actual table (on the left) with my stats (right). I can be forgiven my Leinster bias and the only other things I’ve gotten very wrong are the Scottish teams. With a little over half the season left I’d be happy if things were that close come May.

Entertainment and discussion being the main goals here I’ll get on with this week’s preview.

Ospreys; A great run came to an end in Edinburgh leaving the ‘Spreys in 6^th. They are within a few points of the play-offs but only a few above the chasing pack. They’re the champs so looking upwards will be the mentality and heads won’t have dropped too much. Their next two fixtures are home derbies and derby victories are the best medicine when recovering from a slump. Concentration and determination the battle cry.

Cardiff; Travelled too Italy and won their match with minimum fuss and minimum style. It was a first victory in five matches but Cardiff are still struggling against the tides of mediocrity. A November victory against league bitches Zebre won’t do much to convince their critics that they’ve turned a corner.

The Match; Home advantage, better squad, better form. Everything is stacked against Cardiff and this is the Osprey’s to lose.

Treviso; Metres away from ending rampant Ulster’s winning streak Treviso will, not for the first time, feel hard done by after a narrow defeat. Their general play has been good all season but they are struggling to translate performances into victories. The next few Pro12 matches are winnable and a good start would be a boost.

Dragons; Stuck it to fellow mediocrity merchants Connacht and closed the gap in the competition to be ‘best of the rest’. They’re only a point behind Connacht and Treviso making this a second ‘six (8?) pointer’ in a row. It’s not the lofty goal professional teams will have dreamed of but with this season essentially written off even at this early stage finishing above the other teams nearby is the best hope for building for next season.

The Match; The men from Newport do not travel well. They’ve returned defeated from every one of their away fixtures this season and while Treviso haven’t exactly turned Stadio Monigo into a fortress they’ve done decently there. One point defeats to Leinster and Ulster are not to be sniffed at. Treviso need to take this opportunity to turn performance into victory and the Dragons are there for the taking.

Connacht v Edinburgh; Edinburgh stopped the rot with a decent win over the Ospreys. They’ve cut a frustrated figure so far this season and will need to build on this to make good the promise of last season. They can throw all their energy into this fixture though because the upcoming European matches are a wet box of matches after their terrible start. Connacht are stumbling from one type of indifferent to another with the odd solid performance thrown in. Very hard to predict what they’ll do. It’s not going to be a great show but the added fire power the Scot internationals will bring should be enough to get Edinburgh over the line. Interesting to see Nick De Luca and Vainikolo’s re-acquaintance.

Leinster v Zebre; I really thought Zebre were in with a chance of popping their cherry here but I’m starting to think they might make us wait until next season before they get a win. Another opportunity is on the horizon with the Italian double header but the Leinster juggernaut has to be navigated first. It’s more of the same for Zebre and they’re in for a tough time in Dublin. Leinster to win by millions.

Munster v Glasgow; Glasgow are having a decent season. Lost at the weekend showing a lack of incision but returning internationals should bring them back some direction. They travel to Thomond to engage a wounded Munster team and I see the potential for match of the weekend. Both teams are close to each other in the race for the play-offs and close to each other in ability. With nothing in it I go to the default pick of a home win. Munster victory after a close match.

Scarlets v Ulster; Scarlets came away from last week’s match with a rare victory in Munster. It should be the boost they needed going into this top of the table clash but the WRU have thrown a spanner in the works. Showing their usual indifference to the regional set-up Wales have scheduled a fourth international for the November break depriving the Scarlets of whatever front line players they haven’t already broken. The Llanelli men are hit the hardest due to the importance of the fixture and if they don’t get a result there will always be a feeling of ‘what if’. This should be an opportunity for them to close the gap but it’s probably not to be. Ulster to get a precious victory here to widen the gap.

Looking forward to the weekend and then onto the European fixtures. Until next week.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

While the cats are away, the Pro12 still plays

We’re not happy here at HoR covering just the Irish provinces in the RaboPro12, so throughout the season Liam Sinclair will keep an eye on the rest of the league for us.

The tail end of the International break will be more interesting than exciting. The usual perks of added unpredictability and a good look at the fringe players is offset by the somewhat stuttering style of the rugby on show. I’m personally a fan so let’s have a look.

Edinburgh; Haven’t won in their last five Pro12 matches with the last outing a hammering at the hands of pace setters Ulster. They sit 10^th in the table and don’t look like doing much. Europe hasn’t offered last year’s solace either with both matches really better consigned to history. At the risk of repeating myself Edinburgh have to do something soon to salvage their season.

Ospreys; They found their groove and they’re staying in it. A shaky start has been overcome with five victories on the trot including wins over top four rivals Scarlets, Munster and Leinster. In 5^th but even on points with fourth. The form team in the tournament.

The Match; Two teams heading in completely opposite directions. Edinburgh will be hit harder by the International break due to The Ospreys depth and I can only see one result. The Welsh side will continue their charge up the table with moderate comfort.

Zebre; The Italians have played twice since the last instalment of this blog due to a fixture rearrangement. The first was a trip to Parc y Scarlets where they showed spirit and adventure before succumbing in the late stages of the match. The second was the visit of Ulster and the hosts came as close as they’ve ever come to getting a win before succumbing (inevitably maybe?) in the dying stages. 80 minutes rugby yet to be learned but there are hints that they are heading somewhere near the right direction….ish. Credit where it’s due a try BP in defeat is always appreciated.

Cardiff; Cardiff lost to Munster from a winning position last time out. It was a demoralising exclamation point to a demoralising run of matches. It leaves The Blues disappointingly off the pace in the bottom half of the table.

The Match; I’m going to do something I told myself I wouldn’t do anymore. I’m going to be a clever git. The Cardiff team seem fragmented and rudderless and it’s a perfect opportunity for the newcomers to record their maiden victory. (The third time I’ve said this if memory serves). 80 minutes is the key and if Zebre can keep it up for this long it’s theirs.

Dragons v Connacht; It’s the battle of the other teams! Dragons and Connacht are the bridesmaids of their respective unions, always looking upwards at their cousins. This fact, however, is unlikely to add spice to the occasion with intensity the keyword in these battles. Neither team loses hugely to the international sides so the sides on the pitch will be close to the norm. The Dragons lost heavily to Glasgow in their last fixture and have been generally underwhelming all season. Their low position is a fair reflection of their performances and I see more of the same. A decent Connacht team will show up here smelling blood and should have enough to bring victory back on the ferry home.

Treviso v Ulster; Is it that time yet? Is Ulster’s steamroller ready for a pit stop? Treviso aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire but they have shown in patches that they are serious men with serious intent. Both sides have been picked clean by their national teams leading up to this and it’s been Ulster, with two victories, who’ve coped better so far. Treviso went down fairly tamely to Connacht in their fixture. Ulster’s more recent fixture wasn’t the most convincing and I’m going to use this as my guide. The clever git hat is back on and I’m predicting that Treviso will be the first team to beat Ulster since the Heineken Cup final.

Glasgow v Leinster; Glasgow have been very impressive so far and are deservedly sitting comfortably in 3^rd. Were ruthless when Newport came calling and have become very comfortable, very fast in Scotstoun. The visit of Leinster (albeit the diluted November version) serves up a good challenge to gauge where exactly this team are at. It will be close and whoever loses will probably get a losing BP. It will probably come down to who takes their chances. I’m going to go for Leinster but it’s a punt.

Munster v Scarlets; High flying Scarlets would have preferred to have this match when they were at full strength. Were unconvincing in victory over lowly Zebre these are another team on the rise and this would’ve been a good measure of the season’s progress. As it stands they’re travelling to a team blessed with depth and perfectly prepared for the challenge. Munster will slow burn and finish this off in the second half.

I like the possible shocks these weekends throw up. Hope I haven’t tried being too clever.

I think I’ve been too clever.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Top half of Pro12 pulling away

We’re not happy here at HoR covering just the Irish provinces in the RaboPro12, so throughout the season Liam Sinclair will keep an eye on the rest of the league for us.

An interesting weekend in the Pro12. All the teams in the top half beat teams in the bottom half meaning no positional changes at all. Ulster show no signs of slowing down, traditional powerhouses Leinster and Ospreys continue their steady progress up the gears and the best of the rest, Scarlets, Munster and Glasgow all recorded wins to keep themselves in the mix. In the bottom half Connacht, Dragons and Zebre are where most people expected them to be, Treviso are performing slightly above expectations and Edinburgh and Cardiff continue doing their best to prove my optimism on their behalf wrong languishing in 7^th and 9^th respectively.

The internationals have gone to their camps so the upcoming matches will heavily involve squads. Hard matches to predict but we’ll have a go.

Warriors; Stadio di Monigo is building a reputation as a tough place to visit so Glasgow would have been happy to navigate this. Treviso deservedly led at the break but an impressive 2^nd half performance, inspired by Tommy Seymour and substitute Scott Wight, saw them turn things around and escape with a hard earned victory. A morale boosting day out has them in rude health as we head into November.

Dragons; More of the same for poor, besieged Newport. The runts of the Welsh litter are getting further from the Pro12 teat with every week. Shipping 40 plus points for the second time this season and doing it in front of their own fans is a hard blow to absorb. Big improvement needed. Fast.

The Match; The international break can be the great equaliser and that counts extra in this match. Warriors have a long injury list of 6 or 7 and this will be compounded by the loss of 13 players to Scotland. There aren’t many squads that could handle this loss and any team sent onto the pitch is bound to struggle. The Dragons are being left in much better condition. Only Toby Faletau heads off to Poland leaving the Dragons with, essentially, their full complement. It’s easy when seen from that point of view and I see a much needed win for the Dragons.

Scarlets; A hard earned win for Llanelli in the Scottish capital. Despite having the try BP secured before half time it took a 78^th minute penalty to secure a one point victory. The match swayed back and forth for the entire match and always had that ‘’could go either way’’ feel. Five points away from home always represents good value but the manner leaves a lot of questions.

Zebre; Still not giving us much to discuss with the talking points from this match centering mostly around Munster’s, admittedly impressive, JJ Hanrahan. They managed to keep the score low and drawn until half time. The second half was all Munster, a try at 46 minutes and they continued in this manner securing BP win. Zebre stayed on 3 for the duration and remain bottom.

The Match; Scarlets are another team that will be hit by the international break with 13 players unavailable. Zebre are losing five to Italy so neither are at full strength. In this case I don’t think it will be enough. Despite the shallowness of the Scarlets squad this is probably the match for them, what every team wants in these circumstances.

Cardiff; Cardiff were rolled over on easily on Saturday. While there was no denying that Leinster were at their ruthless best the Blues made it easy for them. Lowered expectations were needed for Cardiff leading to this match but they still landed well below acceptable. A deserved hiding for the Welsh region and down seems to be the only way for a team who looked to be building towards something at the end of last season. Next up are Munster in Cardiff Arms. Another match where teams will be changed due to call ups. 8 for Cardiff, 10 for Munster. Munster have, by a distance, the better squad. Closer than the weekend but Cardiff will have another in the loss column.

Edinburgh; That they were involved in the most entertaining match of the weekend will provide no comfort to Edinburgh. The biggest losers of the European break restarted domestic affair with a home loss to the high flying Scarlets. It leaves them very near to last year’s dismal end position and it will get harder before it gets easier. The Ospreys visit soon and a trip to Connacht in deepest winter follows that. First up though are Ulster. Unstoppable at the moment, it’s a big ask. I’ll save my Ulster are due a loss mantra until they have a toughish away game. In Ravenhill against a misfiring Edinburgh there’s only one likely outcome.

Treviso; A disappointing defeat for Treviso at the weekend, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Bigger picture? 8^th is a decent position for Treviso with only 6 points between them and 5^th. Home form has been the backbone for lots of teams throughout the ages and they’ve had a go at making this part of their arsenal. Definitely a team looking forward they are the showing that the Italian-Celtic league experiment was worth a whack. Connacht are next for Treviso and it’s a big one for both teams. Taking points off your closest rivals is the way to achieve positional goals. Treviso’s 17 players on International duty dwarves Connacht’s 3 and, once again, this could be key. Timing is the killer for Treviso here and Connacht should see this through.

Ospreys; A stylish showing against Connacht in Galway was the 4^th consecutive victory for the Ospreys in the Pro12. Groove well and truly found just in time for the renewal of an epic rivalry. They really had Leinster’s number last year and will fancy their chances in the Liberty Stadium. It will be a tough outing though with so many players unavailable. Leinster are in a similar situation but their squad is stronger. Really not much in it and a losing BP no matter which way it goes. I’ll call Leinster this time for the usual unscientific reason of them being ‘due one’.

That’s that for this week. Not always the silkiest of rugby at these times but it’s a great time for the fringe players to put their hands up and a great chance for us to have a look at the stars of the future.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.

Much delight at return to league action

We’re not happy here at HoR covering just the Irish provinces in the RaboPro12, so throughout the season Liam Sinclair will keep an eye on the rest of the league for us.

Another weekend to forget for the Non-Irish Pro12 picking up no wins between the lot of them. This means that Ospreys victory over Treviso remains the only win for the lot, a shocking played 16, won 1, lost 15. It’s an embarrassing set of circumstances. Plenty of making up to do for most teams so as we dive back into the bread and butter of the RaboDirectPRO12.

Edinburgh; Edinburgh ran rampant in the disaster stakes finishing with zero across the board. No scores, no points and the concession of two try BPs. Last year’s semi-finalists seem to have played themselves out of contention already. Couple this with their underwhelming 9^th at home? Basic credibility is under threat. Time to get your shit together lads. A tough but winnable fixture against the Scarlets. It could be the turnaround or the beginning of the end.

Scarlets; Might not be as bent over from the weekend as other teams who failed to record victories. Clermont and Leinster are two of the favourites for the competition and getting anything from these matches was always going to be challenging. Despite their quality there is a feeling that they are still a tad callow for battle on two fronts. A top 4 finish at home is a realistic goal and it can be built on in the medium term. Having let their foot off the gas somewhat after a storming start they need to start putting consecutive wins together again. No time like the present, an important weekend.

The Match; A possible humdinger here. Both teams should be highly motivated and both teams are irresistible when at their swashbuckling best. It’s a tough one to call as, despite what the table may say, these teams are close in ability. A mixture of home advantage and a beefier pack should see Edinburgh through.

Treviso; Another team who wouldn’t have been burdened by expectation heading into the European fixtures. The group of death in many eyes it would’ve taken optimism bordering on the absurd to predict anything but last for the Italians. It’ll be another year of being ‘plucky’ and ‘hard-working’ for the Italians. Gave a good account of themselves in defeat though and will be happier than most……….. Maybe not happy? Content?

Warriors; Too cute for my own good predicting a win for these at the weekend. An attempt at being clever which I’m told frequently doesn’t suit me. Maybe time to listen? Seriously though, this was a big loss for Glasgow. At least one win was needed in these rounds and a grim aspect is added to forthcoming European matches. Domestically on the other hand Glasgow are on solid ground. Flying high in third, life is good. Starting with Treviso there’s a run of winnable matches coming up (Dragons, Connacht) and Glasgow will want to use these matches to cement their position.

The Match; Treviso have been in impressive form at home with 9 of their 13 points won there. It’s a not unimpressive 8 out of 18 for Glasgow on the road but I do think the Italians have the edge here. If they can keep the Glasgow backs quiet they’ll score a narrow victory.

Dragons v Ulster; The only Pro12 team mucking about in the Challenge Cup did not bring glory to the brand at all. And although the teams they faced were as tough as it gets at this level they will have been disappointed not to have got at least one victory. It’s more of the same at home for the region in 11^th with only two victories under the belt from six attempts. One of those against the spare team from Italy sees the grim prophecies surrounding Newport in the build-up proving true with only the odd whimper of protest from Rodney Parade. I still think Ulster will run out of steam soon and are due a loss but it won’t be this weekend.

Munster v Zebre; Zebre didn’t just lose in Europe. They saw their best chance of victory in their maiden campaign disappear back to Galway. They are just making up the numbers in Europe and have no realistic chance of making any kind of splash. There’s very little enjoyment gained in writing about them and my feeling is that there won’t be for a good, long while. (Credit where it’s due, at least they didn’t finish on nil in either or both their matches. It can happen.) The next step in a campaign edging closer to self-parody is a trip to Munster where a loss is once again on the cards. Munster for the BP win.

Ospreys v Connacht; The standard bearers for this column in Europe. A 50% return including a winning BP has the other teams seething with envy! Unfortunately the more recent outing saw a rampant Tigers team claim the full 5 points leaving them neck and neck in the pool. A tough double header follows, definitely one to look forward to. Less glamorous fixtures to navigate first, Connacht are next. Despite the recent loss there remains a feeling that Ospreys are hitting their stride and they will be confident of overcoming Connacht. Another team who regularly have condescending and unhelpful clichés thrown at them praising hard work and bravery will have to deal with more by the end of the weekend. The Irish team won’t roll over but it’s a victory for Ospreys.

Leinster v Cardiff; I had high hopes for Cardiff at the beginning of the season but they have me on the verge of developing a complex. A lukewarm domestic start in which victories where only recorded over the supposed weaker teams and losses came in all 3 matches against teams they’d consider their peers was followed by a bizarre loss to Sale. There’s no shame in losing to the stylish Toulon team but even that match had its ‘what if’ moments. An early try and Halfpenny’s inaccuracy from the tee being the big talking points. When you’re demoralised a trip to Dublin is among the last places you want to be going. Leinster may not have set the world alight in either of their European victories but the style and ruthlessness is creeping back into their play. They will see Cardiff as ripe for the picking and I don’t think the visitors will offer much in the way of resistance.

It feels like a bit of a come down now but once the kick-offs start you’ll be right back in Pro12 bliss. Enjoy.

Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.