It has been a season of European woe for the Non-Irish Pro12 that’s likely to continue, writes Liam Sinclair…
Back again after a short break. I hope that you all had a pleasant Christmas. You were probably sick though weren’t you? Everyone was but sure don’t be worrying you’re better now/on the road to repair.
An interesting statistic to start us off; of the 7 teams watched in this article 6 are bottom of their pools without a single victory recorded. 2 of those 6 haven’t even got a BP for their toils. It’s a tough aul’ cookie to be swallowing but we’ll dive in and see if there’s any chance of an upward trend in fortunes.
Ulster v Glasgow; Two teams coming off big wins last weekend leaving them side by side atop the Pro12 table. Despite the similarities there is clear contrast. Namely their opposing fortunes in Europe. Glasgow are bottom of Pool 4 without a win to their names and out of the competition. 3 places above them in 1st are a rampant Ulster widely expected to continue in winning ways and secure a home quarter final. From this angle, especially when home advantage is factored in, it seems clear cut. An Ulster victory to keep them in the driver’s seat.
Zebre v Biarritz; Let’s not travel too far down this road. Zebre just aren’t good enough to be competing at this level. Their near miss in the Liberty Stadium is more a story of what The Ospreys did wrong and I’m comfortable leaving that in isolation. When it’s not meant to be it’s not meant to be and this video sums up Zebre’s season. Biarritz to win.
Toulon v Cardiff; 7th domestically, 11 points off the play-off spots and rock bottom of Pool six on an underwhelming 1 this season is fast becoming one to forget for the men from the Welsh capital. A tricky trip to Munster navigated more solidly than most expected has Cardiff heading to Toulon with a victory under their belts. The Top14 pace setters pulled off a shock of their own by falling at home to the mercurial Parisians of Racing Metro. It would be a stretch to see this as anything more than two blips randomly converging. Toulon ooze quality from 1-23 and it’s hard to imagine them losing two on the trot. Especially at home. The -21 offered by the bookies seems about right. A BP win for the Galacticos of Cote d’Azur.
Leinster v Scarlets; The past weekend must’ve felt like a kick in the gut to Scarlet’s fans. A promising start to the season is in danger of derailment after defeat to Ulster saw them drop from the play-off spots for the first time this season. Where there was an element of sympathy for Scarlets in the reverse fixture due to circumstances beyond their control this was nothing short of capitulation. (Taking nothing away from Ulster. They were excellent) Nothing left to play for but pride in Pool 5 a win would be handy to lift flagging spirits. Waiting in Dublin are a Leinster team who look to be approaching some approximation of the Leinster team we’ve gotten used to in the Joe Schmidt era and who need to win big. They’ll come flying out of the traps and relentlessly attack. Llanelli have a hard couple of weeks ahead of them. Defeat for the Welsh.
Edinburgh v Munster; 4 defeats out of 4, 112 points conceded with a return of 12. Ladies and gentlemen may I introduce last year’s semi-finalists. The promise shown last season has disappeared without a trace this term in Europe and at home. Its five losses in a row and, even at this early stage, season is essentially over. Visitors Munster blow hot and cold. The ruthless dismissal of an Ulster team, unbeaten at the time, was followed by a home reversal to a mediocre Cardiff team. Form is still very much on their side when compared to Edinburgh and they still have plenty to fight for. Despite this I still think it’s a tough one to call. I left this and came back to it and I’ve decided to go for a narrow Munster win.
Ospreys v Leicester; The standard bearers for my boys in Europe with a whopping two wins! Round 4’s victory over Toulouse is a decent addition to anyone’s CV and it leaves them with an outside chance of securing second and moving onto the knock-out stages of one of the European competitions. It really is an outside chance though with BP wins needed and the Tigers coming to town. A night to forget against Zebre is not ideal but I do think the Ospreys have the beating of Leicester in them. It won’t be qualification but ruining it for someone else is the next best thing and there’s a chance of that. A perfect set-up for a grandstand final day in Pool 2.
Toulouse v Treviso; I could fill an entire page with clichés and platitudes describing Treviso’s honesty and ruggedness but no matter how positive the spin they are what they are, a decent mid-table side in the Pro12. This is not meant in a bad way as I think they have developed as well as they could and there is every chance they can build on it. This year this will be as good as it gets. They prepared for their trip to Stade Ernest Wallon by shipping 41 points in Glasgow. Hardly ideal. Treviso should try to enjoy the day out because victory will be beyond them and tries will be conceded. BP win for Toulouse.
So I’m not confident again this week but why would I? Main thing is to watch and enjoy the quality rugby on offer. Until next time.
Special thanks to Kev (@diabeto1201) for pointing me towards the above video.
Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.
