Please welcome our newest writer to the HoR2 fold, Ulster & Ireland fan Ryan Cullen…
It seems nonsensical to suggest that Ireland’s first match in this year’s six nations against Wales is very important. Of course it is – defeat in Cardiff rules out the possibility of both a Grandslam and a Triple Crown in the first round of fixtures.
However the importance of the fixture goes deeper than that. The Six Nations – probably more than any other International competition – is all about momentum. Good teams can become greater than the sum of their parts when imbued with the confidence gained from a couple of early wins. Wales’ 2008 grandslam is an excellent example of this. Entering the tournament you would have been hard pushed to find somebody who expected a Welsh grandslam, yet after a couple of early wins against England and Scotland they destroyed Italy, arm wrestled their way to a victory in Dublin and sent the French packing on their way to achieving the clean-sweep. Whilst not wishing to denigrate that side’s achievements, their form before and afterwards demonstrates that a couple of early victories in the Six Nations can do a great deal for the 15 men taking to the pitch in round 3. Ireland’s fixture list for the 2013 Championship also emphasises the importance of a victory in Cardiff. Whilst it is undoubtedly a positive that Ireland play both England and France in Dublin, defeat in Cardiff would see Ireland facing a potentially buoyant England team having to win in order to save their championship in round 2.
Declan Kidney will also be acutely aware that a good start is essential as failure in this year’s championship will bring him greater problems than the subjecting him to the wrath of Ireland fan’s, as it may bring to an end his Irish tenure. Kidney’s contract expires in the summer and with no clear indication as to which way the IRFU will go, the former Munster man will know that a bad performance in the Six Nations will likely seal his fate. Similarly, a strong Irish performance, even without a triple crown or grandslam, will likely give Kidney a chance to continue his project for the foreseeable future.
As in all rugby matches, all 23 players, now the rules have been changed uniformly, will be important on every matchday. However for Kidney, his decisions when selecting the backrow and the back three are likely to more influential on his future than others. This is really down to the fact that most of the rest of the team selects itself at present. Strauss’ injury means that Rory Best is guaranteed the 2 shirt in Cardiff and Paul O’Connell’s absence means it highly unlikely 4 and 5 will have any names other than McCarthy and Ryan pencilled in beside them. Connor Murray, Johnny Sexton, and Brian O’Driscoll are all guaranteed starters, whilst it would be a huge shock if Gordon D’Arcy didn’t pull on the 12 jersey. Truthfully, we already know two members of the backrow also as Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien are certain starters, but it is the remaining shirt in this area which is most interesting. Stephen Ferris’ injury means that Chris Henry or Peter O’Mahony are likely to fill the spare shirt and who Kidney chooses is likely to say a lot about the dynamic of the team.
The safe decision would undoubtedly be O’Mahony – having greater international experience and being, perhaps, more ‘proven’ at the top level suggests O’Mahony will do a perfectly adequate job if given the shirt. This however would be the safe decision. Henry’s performances for Ulster throughout this entire season have been fantastic – with him consistently performing to an exceptionally high level. Indeed, anybody who saw Henry’s performance in Castres will appreciate just what he can bring to the plate. O’Mahony certainly hasn’t done anything wrong but the greater balance the Ulsterman can bring to the backrow may force Kidney’s hand. Whilst neither O’Mahony or Henry are gamebreakers in the way Sean O’Brien and Stephen Ferris are, Henry’s greater skills on the floor and preferred number 7 position would allow Sean O’Brien to move back to 6 and have greater influence on the game as a carrying backrow rather than always finding himself at the bottom of each ruck, an area Henry excels in. As a subscriber to the view that the backrow is the most important aspect of the modern game, I believe selecting Henry in Cardiff would be an excellent decision and one Kidney certainly wouldn’t regret.
The only other potentially controversial decisions Kidney will have to make are likely to be in the back 3 and the replacements. Rob Kearney’s return to fitness ensures that at most the two wing positions are up for grabs. Tommy Bowe’s injury will have come as a blow to Kidney as the dependable Monaghan man would have been one of the first names on the teamsheet. This leaves Kidney with a choice of two from Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Trimble and Fitzgerald. None provide the same all round excellence Bowe does so Kidney will have to choose his wingers carefully. Zebo and Gilroy both started and played well against Argentina and could consider themselves unfortunate to lose their starting berths. Earls also started that game in November and whilst that was at 13, it would be a shock to many if Earls wasn’t in the 15 somewhere and given that O’Driscoll is likely to reform his midfield partnership with Gordon D’Arcy, it’s likely that will be on one wing or the other. That leave’s one wing position available for the four others; my hunch is Zebo is likely to pip the others to that shirt. His performance against Racing Metro was impressive and whilst all the others have justifiable claims, Zebo has probably done enough. Court or Kilcoyne will likely cause him the greatest headache when selecting his replacements. Replacements in the backrow and back three will again need to be well though through and the correct decisions made. One thing is for sure – Kidney may not have many more opportunities to select correctly if he gets this one wrong.
Ryan’s 15:
Forwards: Healy, Best, Ross, Ryan, McCarthy, O’Brien, Henry, Heaslip
Backs: Murray, Sexton, Zebo, D’Arcy, O’Driscoll, Earls, Kearney
Replacements: Court, Bent, Cronin, Henderson, O’Mahony, Reddan, O’Gara, Gilroy
My name is Ryan Cullen and I am a 25 year old Ulster season ticket holder. I was introduced to the game around 15 years ago and have loved it ever since. I have an interest in pretty much all sports though so don’t be surprised to see a few football (Liverpool), Golfing and Racing interests (to name but a few) thrown in from time to time.
