It’s time to for the word “permutations” to be bandied about yet again and Liam Sinclair is on hand to crunch the Heineken Cup numbers…
The last two pool matches in the Heineken Cup has all rugby nerds reaching for the pencils and calculators to figure out what they think will happen and what they need to happen for the benefit of their own team. Personally I think that trying to predict the outcomes of 24 matches and put teams into their correct position is folly and foolishness of the highest order which will only lead to ridicule and embarrassment!
Here’s what I think will happen.
Pool 1
Saracen’s currently sit atop Pool 1 with 14 points with Racing Metro (12) and Munster (11) not far behind. 2/2 wins for the Sarries with a BP in the fixture at home to Edinburgh should leave them respectably on top with 23 points at end of play. Munster should also be able to win both their matches starting with a trip away to Edinburgh and be left with 19 points. Racing Metro, in my opinion, are being treated fairly cheaply by wags Europe wide where the opinion is that they were lucky in round 1 and therefore don’t stand a chance in Thomond. I am predicting a loss for them but I feel it will be a more straightforward scenario based on their famed flakiness rather than just ‘what goes around comes around’ + Magic of Thomond = the inevitable. Losing BP not a stretch for them in either of their remaining fixtures.
Pool 2
It’s tight. A pool that looked like trouble from the day the draw was made has managed to splutter to the final stages with Leicester and Toulouse in strong contention and The Ospreys in with an outside chance. Pack leaders Leicester travel to the Liberty stadium next and will leave with a point while Toulouse will get maximum returns at home to Treviso moving them up to first. We will be left with Toulouse 18, Leicester 15 and Ospreys 13 going into round 6. Leicester v Toulouse is the grandstand fixture here and we have a must-win situation for both teams. Anyone would rather be at home under these circumstances and I see a 4-1 split in Leicester’s favour. Both teams on 19 points with top going to Toulouse thanks to their resounding victory in round 1. Ospreys in third with 17 points.
Pool 3
A pool that had 2 qualifiers written all over it hasn’t gone to script. Harlequins are 10 points ahead of Biarritz and only need a losing BP at home to Connacht to guarantee progression. They’ll go a few better with a BP win. Biarritz should make short work of Zebre this weekend but defeat to Connacht in The Sportsground was a killer blow for Biarritz which would have changed the complexion of the final day showdown with Harlequins. As it stands it’s a nothing game for the Basques which should see the more motivated Quins claim victory and number 1 seeding for the knockouts. Connacht will finish on a high by defeating Zebre leaving Quins 28, BO 15, Connacht 8 and a dismal, but not unexpected, 0 for Aironi 2.0.
Pool 4
Ulster are top and have their faith in their own hands. With a home game against Glasgow up first their position is a strong one. They should navigate this fixture and Northampton will beat Castres leaving Ulster firmly in control. In round 6 Ulster will travel to Castres and I think it will be a journey too far. A defeat with a BP leaving them with a healthy 20 points. I fel at the start of the season that Glasgow had it in them to wreck the season for one of the stronger teams in this pool but I think this ship has sailed. Northampton to claim a narrow victory in Scotstoun putting them 2nd with 18 points.
Pool 5
Clermont are the other team (along with Harlequins) who can seal qualification this weekend. They welcome Exeter to Stade Marcel Michelin and consecutive victory No.54 will be notched up. A trip to Parc Y Scarlets the following week should bring more points and a home quarter final. Leinster are a team to watch. They need maximum points and for things to go their way in other pools. Starting in Dublin against Llanelli is their best chance of maximum returns. With the RDS crown behind them, a quick start and a relentless continuation of early momentum 5 points are gettable. Victory should be well within their capabilities in Sandy Park but I don’t see the BP coming in Exeter. 9 points is the return from the last two matches. That leaves Clermont with 26 and Leinster with 19 and keen eyes on the other pools. Exeter can be very happy with a return of 9 points in their debut season and I’m looking forward to seeing more of these guys in the future.
Pool 6
Toulon are undefeated and top of Pool 6. Second favourites, after Clermont, to lift the thing. Cardiff travel to Toulon with nothing but pride to play for and this star studded line-up will be ready. They will comfortably dispatch the Welsh side and record the maximum 5 points. Closest rivals Montpellier will go to Sale needing a BP win to keep them in contention but will only get the 4 points. Going into the final day showdown Toulon will be on 23 and Montpelier 17. The home team in this fixture will not be able to top this group but will still have a chance at the 7th or 8th quarter final spot. Toulon will also be playing for seeding and it’s likely to be the tie of the round. With the quality the Toulon squad have it’s difficult to see past them and Montpelier’s European involvement will end here. Comfortable win for Wilkinson’s boys leaving the table Toulon 27, Montpelier 17. Cardiff will welcome Sale to Cardiff Arms and victory should be enough to leapfrog the struggling Premiership side.
Where does this leave us? I’ve given home quarter finals to first and second favourites Clermont (13/5) and Toulon (11/4), a third to joint third favourite’s Harlequins (7/1. I backed them at 10/1 before a ball was kicked) and the last to ambitious Premiership side Saracens (14/1).
The travelling contingent will consist of pool winners Ulster (Joint 3rd favourites with Quins at 7/1) and Toulouse (10/1).
Of the 2nd place finishers I’ve left Munster, Leicester and Leinster on 19 points. Leicester’s 11 tries so far should be a good enough starting point to get them into the first spot leaving Munster and Leinster battling for the second. As it stands Munster lead the try count 7-3 and I don’t think Leinster will do enough to overtake this. Head over heart time and Munster will get the last spot.
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Harlequins-28
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Toulon-27
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Clermont-26
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Saracens-23
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Ulster-20
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Toulouse-19
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Leicester-19
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Munster-19
Harlequins v Munster
Toulon v Leicester
Clermont v Toulouse
Saracens v Ulster
There are a couple of quality ties there with the royalty v pretender a theme in three. We’ll see what happens.
A quick word on my own team, Leinster. Though I’ve left them out here I don’t think it will take a set of results in the miracle bracket to see them through to one of the second spots. A dropped point or an unexpected result somewhere and they’re in as good a position as any to pounce. As I said we’ll see what happens.
Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.
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