Click here for Part 1 of Kate McEvoy’s review of 2012/preview of 2013…
In January it's customary to look forward as well as back. If I was El Thorinho I would no doubt segue into a soliloquy on Roman gods but I'm afraid you'll have to settle for less lyricism as we jump into a look ahead at 2013.
From one print media totem to another. In the final Sunday Times of last year Stephen Jones had this shot to fire over the bows, “Because the club game in England & France is successful, it causes jealousy. National unions all over the world have tried to suppress the England & France club game & failed.” In other words, one of 2012's big rugby issues is going to continue to be a headache in 2013. Since the Premiership claimed to have signed over rights for European matches involving English teams to BT Vision in a deal worth £152million (€187m), there has been an ongoing discussion over the restructuring of the HEC, in particular the qualifying system. Again, there are more in-depth analysis out there but in basic summary, the English & French clubs want to do away with the number of seeds available to the clubs in the other 4 nations. Qualifiers would be drawn from top 6 placed teams in the Rabo Pro 12. They're also looking for a redistribution of the profits. For an up-to-date state of the nation(s) check out the “paper of record” here.
Four meetings in 2012 have not resolved this issue so it is now 2013's problem. I can see where the Anglo-French alliance are coming from in some respects, Edinburgh's abandonment of the Rabo last season as they put all their eggs in the Heineken Cup basket illustrates some of their concern. However, I dislike it when people start throwing around ultimatums, particularly when there seems a touch of sour grapes attached, and feel part of the remit of the Heineken Cup should be to develop rugby internationally. If this includes some guaranteed spots of traditionally weaker nations that so be it. There's a lot more ink to be spilt on this yet but as it stands it adds an interesting back-drop to proceedings as we move towards the business end of our finest pan-European competition. Trying to predict the outcome of the Heineken Cup has made fools of wiser heads than me, but I've never been overly concerned with looking stupid so here goes.
Leinster will do well to make out of the group. This weekend's performance was encouraging as they were desperately needed to rediscover their try-scoring ways and for their big-hitters to make a return. Present and correct on both counts. However, after an uneven campaign, Leinster will have to be on sparkling form to get maximum points from their remaining group thing. Here's the rub, even if they do deliver, they still may not qualify for the 2 top runner-up spots. And so it goes. It's best foot forward and cross your fingers time. I heard their possible qualification described as a “minor miracle”. But on such miracles was the Heineken Cup built so it's not over for the European Champions yet. But it's perilously close.
Munster are in a better position to nab one of those coveted lowest seeds. They can go one better on their remaining fixtures and finish on 21 points which would see them sorted. With Edinburgh in Murrayfield and Racing Metro in Thomond it appears doable. Hopefully their 2012 nadir of throwing their opening group game away in Paris won't come back to haunt them. They continue to struggle to decide whether the Munster style of yore or Rob Penney's more expansive game is the way forward. It seems to me, and there were some excellent analysis on Off the Ball's Wednesday Night on the subject, that a blend of the two really gets the job done but they're falling down on the decision-making on and off the pitch as to when to switch it up. And by God if they don't do better than Saturday's dourly dire showing against the Cardiff Blues the road to Dublin ends here. Hopefully it will have given them the bit of the dog required to do the necessary on the road and in Fortress Thomond. Or else I will be very very cranky.
Connacht travel to The Stoop looking to throw another spanner in the works for the mighty Quins and should end on a high note by defeating Zebre at home. There's been real growth in their performances this year, along with a sense that something is really being built out west. It remains to be seen how the departure of Eric Elwood will impact on their progress. It's hoped their transition will continue its upward trajectory but that'll be difficult if they're out of the cup next year. So we either need to keep the Heineken Cup on our fair shores or Connacht will have to do some series work to unseat another province in the Rabo & finish above them. At this point it seems unlikely.
Finally Ulster, the Irish success story of the year. They were a strong team last year, now they're looking like a complete squad, spurred by the massive black cloud of 2012 rugby year, the loss of Nevin Spence. Their hard-hitting defense and steady set-pieces have formed the foundations for a great season so far. When coupled with the sheer number of the squad playing out of their skin all across the park, there are times when the Red Hand have looked impossible. Although spoiling their unbeaten run by losing to Northampton has interrupted their smooth sailing towards a home quarter final. They'll have to win on French soil at Castres for that. But I reckon they'll be there or thereabouts in the final shake-up.
Other picks for the top spot includes the almost nearly there Clermont, who have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in the competition in recent years. They're steeped in rugby culture and have won fans everywhere, both with their play and their exuberant traveling fans. The pendulum in their great rivalry with Leinster has finally swung their way and there's a strong possibility they'll ride that wave of momentum all the way to the final. You know, coupled with their general awesomeness.
I'll also be keeping an eye on the expensive experiment that is Toulon. The Harlem Globetrotters of the competition finally seem to be living up to their potential and are ones to watch. From an English perspective it's Harlequins and Saracens but I think if the cup leaves Ireland it will be finding a new home in France. One way or another, we'll get to watch the action up close and personal as the final unfolds in the Aviva in May.
On the international front, the 6 Nations is fast approaching. Ireland are under huge pressure after a largely underwhelming run of form, but with frustrating flashes of something more bubbling under the surface. As it's an odd-numbered year we have what's perceived as the more favourable draw with the two traditionally tougher opponents at home. Despite last year's grand slam the Welsh are on an uneven form not helped by the poor performance of their regions in a club structure that seems ill-suited to the country's rugby culture. Scotland have been disappointing and are now the proud owners of a make-shift coaching structure after the departure on Andy Robinson. The Italy match will no doubt be a dog-fight but all in all should Ireland win the tournament opener in the Millennium Stadium we'll be in good shape on the road and for the tournament over all.
Our home fixtures will likely prove more challenging. It's always difficult to know what French team will turn up to any given match but they looked majestic at times during their November series. The French are my pick for the title and possible Grand Slam, however I think it's important not to discount the threat of the Red Rose. The English are buoyant after their surprise destruction of All Blacks. They can at times be described as workmanlike at times but could be dangerous and are not to be under-estimated in a year where all players will be desperate to put themselves into contention for a certain tour happening this summer. More on that anon.
Before that, I wanted to take a closer look at what I think will be a key issue for Irish rugby in 2013. I alluded to it in the first half of this article and it's hardly a bolt from the blue, the question of the Irish number 10 shirt, or more precisely the 22. Johnny Sexton starts at 10 for Ireland but ROG's refusal to go gently into that good night has compounded the conundrum as who should be his number 2. For starters I should state I don’t necessarily think Kidney was wrong to have O'Gara on the bench for the first test. It was the conservative choice in the flawed situation where the RWC draw is determined years out from the competition and we were scrapping for points. But in general, we need to be looking to the future of the team. It should go without saying, but for some people it bears repeating, that Ronan O'Gara has been a massive contributor to Irish rugby at provincial and national level. His achievements have been massive and it's ahistorical to announce that he's a bad player, even though his current form is uneven. Furthermore although his conduct can rub supporters up the wrong way, he's been a huge competitor for so long it's hardly surprising that he's still scrapping for his place and not shy to let people know that he's still hungry for more. I can applaud that hunger without being overly fond of the way he chooses to disseminate that information.
As it stands, it's up to Kidney to be decisive and start blooding the younger outhalves. The three main contenders are currently Jackson, Keatley and Madigan. After watching Jackson disappear in the shadow of Ruan Pienaar in the last two Hcup games last season I was reluctant to have him in the squad for the South Africa game. However he's improved this season and become more his own man and a ferocious tackler for his size to boot. The question we must ask ourselves will any opposing team who have seen this video ever shake in their boots at his name on the team-sheet? All joking aside he's growing into a serious contender but is still remarkably young and not taking on Ulster's place-kicking duties as of yet. But it will come.
Ian Keatley has been unable to unseat Radge at Munster but it appears to be due to something more than form because Keatley has certainly been more consistent and it's arguable that Munster are a better team with more go-forward play when he's on the pitch. The politics involving O'Gara don't stop with the national squad. It's hard to shore up your case to be considered when you can't nail on your start with your province. But short of calling over to O'Gara's house with a shotgun and a shovel, I'm not sure what more he can do than keep looking to his own house and turning in solid performances with Munster. He arguably has less potential than Jackson or Madigan but has quietly grown into a handy player who I don't think we've seen the best of yet.
Finally to Ian Madigan. His talent is indisputable and he should have featured more in the national set-up than he has. I rate him highly. However some people seem to rate him a little too highly. I recently saw him described as having “no objective flaws” in his game. With respect, I disagree. His decision making under pressure can be questionable and his tendency to back himself can sometimes back fire, particularly when he forsakes the safer option to do so. The magic moments are great and long may they continue but they don't exist in isolation, which is to say, they come with howlers attached too. Such is the nature of high-risk play, especially when coupled with a tendency to think he's a bit bigger than he actually is. Regarding selection, his stint at full-back is doing him no favours in the eyes of the selectors and isn't great for Leinster either. However with the senior Kearndashian back in harness there's a pin in that one. The larger issue is that he's behind Ireland's premier outhalf at his club. As great as it is for Leinster to have a back-up 10 of Madigan's calibre to do Rabo clean-up, the current situation lessens his opportunities to reach his full potential. So will he be taking the horse to France? Or use that beautiful pass of his at scrum-half? Who knows? Either way, why not give him a chance to show us what he can do in a green jersey, even if he's somewhat curtailed in a blue one
In short, we've got three candidates, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. We need to see at least one of them on the pitch over the Six Nations. And if that's at the expense of Ireland's most-capped player than so be it.
And finally the piece de resistance of our season, the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia. Excitement's already building for the greatest adventure in rugby and selection will come into sharper focus as the 6 Nations progresses so we'll just do a whistle-stop tour. As it stands, it's hard to see past J10 for the Lions pivot. The current lack of competition as well as general awesomeness of BOD should see him on the plane, injury permitting. One can imagine Gatland will be looking for a strong Welsh contingent, however he's already sent a warning shot across the bows about Welsh players based in France limiting their selection possibilities. Which is interesting given that is rapidly becoming the majority of Welsh players.
Speaking on which, another one of those was sent in the direction of England captain Chris Robshaw, when Gatland revealed he didn't consider him a genuine openside, which would in turn hamper his chances. This would be a pity as I reckon he'd make a quality dirt-track captain. However the back-row is extremely competitive so it's all very much up for grabs.
Richie Gray would have been one of the first names on the shirt in most people's minds at the start of the season. It will be interesting to see how Scotland and Sale's poor form will impact on that. O'Connell's struggle for fitness will also leave the second-row open. I'd love to see Donnacha Ryan in the mix. Not just for national pride but because he's a born tourist, as being one of the few players to come out of the ill-fated NZ tour with an enhanced reputation illustrates.
On the subject of patriotism, I don't think it's unrealistic to think an Irish captain is a strong possibility. There's the indicator of the lack of an Irish presence on the coaching tickets, plus the number of strong contenders for the role. Depending on fitness we could have two former tour captains in the mix in O'Connell and O'Driscoll, along with Ulster captain Rory Best, November test captain Jamie Heaslip and potential starting outhalf Johnny Sexton. That's a strong pot to pick from, even without representatives from the other nations.
This of course is the beauty and the contradiction of the Lions. The cream of the home nations battle each other for places and then have to form a cohesive unit in minimal time to topple one of the giants of the Southern Hemisphere. At the end of a season that grows increasing longer, in a professional game this is illogical. And that's what makes it great. Together with bolters, friendships that transcend borders, dirt-trackers, epic journeys and miracles. How lucky that it's all awaiting us this season.
Kate McEvoy : Munster fan in a sea of Leinster blue. Raised on a strict diet of Bective Rangers. Earliest childhood memory is stud marks in the muck. Former hooker for a father & a mother with an eye for a forward pass bordering on freakish . Often to be found down Monkstown RFC/ A & E on account of the exploits of the better half. Best rugby memory, Toulouse main square, May 24th 2008. Epitaph will read “Knew a lot about rugby for a girl.” Can be found tweeting optimistically at @ImKateMc
