We’re not happy here at HoR covering just the Irish provinces in the RaboPro12, so throughout the season Liam Sinclair will keep an eye on the rest of the league for us.
So…… I played a mare last week.
I know the problem though and sourcing is the first step towards fixing. I mixed a hangover with attempts at cleverness. No more! Only attempt cleverness while alert and sober. It’s not all bad though.
Using my poor photo editing skills I’ve taken out Bonus Points and compared the actual table (on the left) with my stats (right). I can be forgiven my Leinster bias and the only other things I’ve gotten very wrong are the Scottish teams. With a little over half the season left I’d be happy if things were that close come May.
Entertainment and discussion being the main goals here I’ll get on with this week’s preview.
Ospreys; A great run came to an end in Edinburgh leaving the ‘Spreys in 6th. They are within a few points of the play-offs but only a few above the chasing pack. They’re the champs so looking upwards will be the mentality and heads won’t have dropped too much. Their next two fixtures are home derbies and derby victories are the best medicine when recovering from a slump. Concentration and determination the battle cry.
Cardiff; Travelled too Italy and won their match with minimum fuss and minimum style. It was a first victory in five matches but Cardiff are still struggling against the tides of mediocrity. A November victory against league bitches Zebre won’t do much to convince their critics that they’ve turned a corner.
The Match; Home advantage, better squad, better form. Everything is stacked against Cardiff and this is the Osprey’s to lose.
Treviso; Metres away from ending rampant Ulster’s winning streak Treviso will, not for the first time, feel hard done by after a narrow defeat. Their general play has been good all season but they are struggling to translate performances into victories. The next few Pro12 matches are winnable and a good start would be a boost.
Dragons; Stuck it to fellow mediocrity merchants Connacht and closed the gap in the competition to be ‘best of the rest’. They’re only a point behind Connacht and Treviso making this a second ‘six (8?) pointer’ in a row. It’s not the lofty goal professional teams will have dreamed of but with this season essentially written off even at this early stage finishing above the other teams nearby is the best hope for building for next season.
The Match; The men from Newport do not travel well. They’ve returned defeated from every one of their away fixtures this season and while Treviso haven’t exactly turned Stadio Monigo into a fortress they’ve done decently there. One point defeats to Leinster and Ulster are not to be sniffed at. Treviso need to take this opportunity to turn performance into victory and the Dragons are there for the taking.
Connacht v Edinburgh; Edinburgh stopped the rot with a decent win over the Ospreys. They’ve cut a frustrated figure so far this season and will need to build on this to make good the promise of last season. They can throw all their energy into this fixture though because the upcoming European matches are a wet box of matches after their terrible start. Connacht are stumbling from one type of indifferent to another with the odd solid performance thrown in. Very hard to predict what they’ll do. It’s not going to be a great show but the added fire power the Scot internationals will bring should be enough to get Edinburgh over the line. Interesting to see Nick De Luca and Vainikolo’s re-acquaintance.
Leinster v Zebre; I really thought Zebre were in with a chance of popping their cherry here but I’m starting to think they might make us wait until next season before they get a win. Another opportunity is on the horizon with the Italian double header but the Leinster juggernaut has to be navigated first. It’s more of the same for Zebre and they’re in for a tough time in Dublin. Leinster to win by millions.
Munster v Glasgow; Glasgow are having a decent season. Lost at the weekend showing a lack of incision but returning internationals should bring them back some direction. They travel to Thomond to engage a wounded Munster team and I see the potential for match of the weekend. Both teams are close to each other in the race for the play-offs and close to each other in ability. With nothing in it I go to the default pick of a home win. Munster victory after a close match.
Scarlets v Ulster; Scarlets came away from last week’s match with a rare victory in Munster. It should be the boost they needed going into this top of the table clash but the WRU have thrown a spanner in the works. Showing their usual indifference to the regional set-up Wales have scheduled a fourth international for the November break depriving the Scarlets of whatever front line players they haven’t already broken. The Llanelli men are hit the hardest due to the importance of the fixture and if they don’t get a result there will always be a feeling of ‘what if’. This should be an opportunity for them to close the gap but it’s probably not to be. Ulster to get a precious victory here to widen the gap.
Looking forward to the weekend and then onto the European fixtures. Until next week.
Liam Sinclair (@liam_bs) – Guesses, generalisations and clichés.
