The Rugby Championship – Week 2 preview

Our man down under @shumpty77 looks ahead to the second round of matches.

An historic weekend of rugby last weekend panned out as many expected as the defence orientated Wallabies could not pounce on the mistakes made by the rusty All Blacks and the Springboks ran away from the gallant Pumas.

This week of fixtures present the “return bouts” with the All Blacks hosting the Wallabies at Eden Park and the Pumas hosting the Springboks on that evening in Mendoza.

Game 3 : New Zealand v Australia   (kickoff 8:35am Irish time)

What can one say about the clash between these sides last week? Frankly it was scrappy and the score line flattered a very ordinary Wallabies outfit. This week this fixture comes to us from Eden Park where the Wallabies have not been victorious since Alan Jones was the coach of the Wallabies in 1986. I do not expect this record of losses to be resolved this weekend given the disparate level of quality and class between the two line-ups.

The All Blacks have made one change to their line-up from last week with Woodcock out through injury. Last week they showed that they are somewhat more flexible in attack than most expected with their “big” centres playing a limited roll and acting mostly as decoys in the set plays that lead to tries. They also dominated the Wallabies at scrum time and were so effective at the breakdown that ball to Will Genia was consistently slow.

Equally the All Blacks did play below their usual lofty standard in their first run together for some weeks so they will be looking to improve significantly on last week’s performance rather than trotting out “more of the same”. In order to do this it will again be important for the All Blacks to dominate the set pieces, win the collisions and score points through their slickness in the backline rather than just barging it up through their outside centres.

What do the Wallabies need to win? It might sound facetious but given that last week was probably their best chance to defeat the All Blacks this year it looks likely that a miracle will truly be required to dent the All Black’s Eden Park dominance. The Wallabies have the look of a rudderless ship in disarray in a storm at the moment with selection condundrums and injury concerns compounding the woe that rests with being the second best team in the ANZAC colonies.

No David Pocock this week is a big blow for the Wallabies albeit it must be said that he was nullified at the breakdown last week before he was injured and in Michael Hooper he has a star of the future to replace him. More worrying for the Wallabies will be their total ineffectiveness in attack last week. Coach Deans has tried to mitigate against a similar performance this week with the injection of Quade Cooper into the line up at fly half however the inclusion of the Waratahs’ 13, 14 (noting Drew Mitchell’s lack of match time in the sky blue this year) and 15 will not be causing the All Blacks’ brain trust to unduly loose sleep at night.

Simply put, Cooper cannot do it all on his own no matter how mighty his performance might be. Across the backline the key match ups aside from those between the fly halves look like the rest easily in the favour of the All Blacks and thus the ability of the Wallabies to score points will continue to be a worry.

The well beaten front row from last week has also been shaken up through injury with the Brumbies’ hooker Stephen Moore returning to the run on side. Equally the well beaten Benn Robinson retains the number one jersey ahead of James Slipper, so it will not be a surprise of the problems of last week at scrum time do not raise their ugly head again.

Ultimately, the All Blacks are the number one team in rugby for a reason as well as being prohibitive $1.09 favourites to win this game: they loose at home rarely if at all and will be primed for an improved performance before an Eden Park crowd that has little to cheer about so far this season. Whilst my heart is begging for a Wallabies victory my brain is saying to consider same a possibility is an act of stupidity on current form and that being the case I this the All Blacks will win this game and win it well. All Blacks by 19

Game 4 : Argentina v South Africa  (KO 7:10pm Irish time)

It has long been said that if the Pumas are to win a game in the Rugby Championship this season it will be at home albeit most pundits presently suggest that that win may well come later in the season against the wobbling Wallabies.

The Pumas have suffered a major blow already this week with Juan Martin Hernandez ruled out with a torn hamstring that occurred at training. They have made one other change to the side from Newlands with Martin Rodriquez coming at fullback for the incumbent Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino whose performance last week was calamitous to say the least.

This week the competition debutants have another mountain to climb to threaten the Springboks and they will need to do so through their strengths in the forward pack as well as in defence which was praised by the Springbok’s coach last week despite leaking 27 points by full time. In order to beat this Springboks outfit the Pumas must score at least 25 points in my opinion and must have an early lead. They must also carefully monitor their discipline to ensure that they do not present Morne Steyn with any opportunities to bolster the Springboks score.

The Springboks were workmanlike in their disposal of the Pumas last week and gave the impression of being a team that still had a few gears to get through before they reached top gear. They have made two changes to their line-up last week with Keegan Daniel dropped to the bench after a moribund performance in game one and Bismarck du Plessis ruled out with a knee ligament injury. Adriaan Strauss and Jacques Potgieter come into the team.

One suspects they will need to lift a couple of gears in this fixture as they will be against a Pumas side desperate for their first win in the competition before their home fans. That said they are team with class across the park who will rely upon their combinations formed during the Super 15 which have largely been maintained to again beat the debutants. In Messrs Kirchner, Habana and Mvovo they have a back three with pace to burn who will use the platform created by their enormous forward pack to their absolute advantage if the Pumas are not diligent in defence.

I do not expect an upset in this game but do expect the Pumas to present more of a test to the Springboks this week in their first home match of the Rugby Championship and thus I expect this game to be closer than last week’s away loss for them. Springboks by 11

Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.

Bledisloe Blunders?

Munster columnist @trevormurphy73 had some thoughts on the officiating at the recent Bledisloe Cup opener to the Rugby Championship

I came home on Saturday after work to watch the first Bledisloe cup match of the season. Not long into the match I decided to write this piece. The decisions I want to talk about were watched at full game speed and only reviewed again if I felt there was a significant error. Some of you may disagree with me but that’s ok. It’s what makes living in a free country worthwhile. I will always listen to an opposing argument even when I believe it is incorrect.

Firstly I believe that NZ are by some margin the best national side playing rugby at the moment. Secondly I believe that NZ get more than their fair share of calls in a given match. 50 50’s in a NZ match are more like 60 40’s. This is not intended as an attack on referees. I believe that the officials at the match this weekend are amongst the best in rugby. It is meant to stimulate debate on this great sport of ours. I have left out any names as I don’t want to personalise the comments. What follows is a chronological list of the events in question.

9^th minute: NZ were awarded a scrum penalty in the Australian half. What bothered me about this was before the scrum had collapsed the NZ flanker had broken his bind and was actually ahead of his prop. It didn’t take any deep analysis to see this. As I said above, I watched it at full match speed and only analysed it more to verify what my instinct had told what happened.

14th minute: NZ were given a knock on advantage. This was then upgraded to a full penalty for hands in the ruck. What was not taken into account was the infringement by NZ players lying over the ball and offside. The ref should have reverted to the knock on advantage and awarded NZ a scrum.

17th minute: Australia had a lineout in their territory. The NZ prop at the front of the lineout came across the line and barged into the Australian player. The ball was knocked into touch by NZ for another Australian line out. The ref then warns the NZ prop for his previous move.

18th minute: We had a repeat of the event in the fourteenth minute. Yet another knock on advantage to NZ which was upgraded to a penalty. This time the NZ flanker came steaming in from the side to clear out the Australian defenders. Again the ref should have reverted to the knock on advantage and awarded a scrum to NZ.

26th minute: Australia were awarded a penalty for crossing by NZ in midfield. While this one was harder to call from the refs point of view, the NZ player over ran his team mate on a parallel line. Not a crossing penalty in my book.

32nd minute: NZ player obstructed in midfield. What it meant was the Australian defender outside him had to check his run slightly. This left space for the NZ player to score a try. Does this mean the try wouldn’t have been scored? I don’t think Australia would have held out much longer but the fact is it was a penalty. At this level players need only a fraction of a second to take advantage of a half a yards space.

35th minute: NZ were awarded a penalty for Australia holding on. What was missed is the NZ defender only got at the ball because his team mates were lying all over the ruck preventing Australia from supporting their runner. It wasn’t subtle!

42nd minute: There was a forward pass by the NZ midfielder. It was not a blatant one but everyone in the commentary box seemed to call it at the same time as I did. A marginal call that could easily be missed by the ref. The linesman should have picked it up though. Within 20 seconds NZ were tackled into touch. The NZ scrum half held on to the ball preventing a quick throw. Didn’t the ref warn him about something like that in the first half?

50th minute: NZ flanker sprinted back into position to block an Australian defender. It wasn’t just running into the line though, he changed his line to do this.

70th minute: NZ midfielder checked and Australian trying to chase down a kick. It wasn’t the worst offence I have ever seen on a rugby field but the rules are the rules.

I don’t think Australia had what it takes to beat NZ on this occasion. They appeared to be rusty. Their execution was very poor at key times. You are never going to beat a team with NZ ability if your line speed is slow in defence. In attack the Australian players were receiving the ball standing still which is a recipe for disaster. Add the questionable officiating calls to the poor play by Australia and it’s a massive uphill battle to beat a quality side.

Take the almost result by Ireland in Christchurch as an example. The NZ captain looked like he had been in a knock down drag out after 80 minutes. You have to fight NZ tooth and nail to even get close on the scoreboard. The ferocity of NZ in the tackle area means teams have to commit numbers and this leaves them without much hope out wide. Rant over!

I’m Trevor, 39. A passionate Munster and Irish Rugby Fan. A champion of the underdog. I have strong opinions on this beautiful game of ours. Always analysing tactics and phases of play. I believe in the old saying “It’s not about the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the about size of the fight in the dog”. Stand up and fight!

The Falcons will be back

Our Ulster columnist @KristianRoss7 also has a fondness for a particular English club which he’d like to share

A year ago at this point, Newcastle Falcons were preparing for another Premiership season, following a nervy end to 2010/11. A win on the final day for Northampton against Leeds Carnegie ensure the Falcons would have another year playing in the top flight.

However a lot can happen in a year. The Falcons now prepare for 2012/13 in the second tier of English rugby the RFU Championship. It's fair to say the Falcons were not good enough last year. Poor results in the first half of the season saw the Falcons bottom of the table, with the board believing that unless a change was made, the Falcons may fall even further behind. So midway through the season Alan Tait was relieved of his duties and Gary Gold was installed as Director of Rugby until the end of the season. A fightback saw the Falcons need a bonus point win on the final day, five points needed not to finish bottom. It didn't start well. By half time the Falcons were 10-0 down. Impossible task? But the second half was better, far better James Fitzpatrick and loan signing from Munster, Peter Stringer crashing over plus the extras from Jimmy Gopperth gave the Falcons a 14-10 lead. It wasn't enough. It was a final day win, but no bonus point for the Falcons and another for Wasps meant the Falcons would finish at the foot of the table by a point.

The point that was very significant indeed. Eyes turned to the second tier, Bristol Rugby the only team eligible to be promoted due to ground criteria. But a storm was brewing. London Welsh said that if they won the playoffs they would apply to be promoted. And sure enough, in fairytale fashion for any Welsh fan, they beat the Cornish Pirates in the final. Having finished fourth in the second tier that year, London Welsh knew that if the RFU deemed them eligible for promotion the Falcons would drop. The RFU did not deem the Kassam Stadium appropriate and the Falcons seemed safe, very safe, already going out and making big name signings such as Rory Lawson. Welsh said they would they appeal and that they did. And all over again, the Falcons were nervous.

Then came judgement day. On the 28th June 2012, the legal appeal from Welsh was accepted and they were promoted to the Premiership meaning that for the first time the Falcons dropped into the second tier. It left a bitter taste in the Falcons mouth, having thought that they were safe. But rather than complain, they decided they would not appeal  and would play their rugby in the RFU Championship.

With the Championship starting next month, things have changed at Kingston Park. Dean Richards installed as director of rugby following his three year ban due to Bloodgate. Many signings made, including a new fly half in Waisea Luveniyali, Rory Lawson as previously mentioned, and Carlo del Fava from Aironi. New kit sponsor, new team sponsor, and most importantly a new start. The Falcons have been good in pre season so far, good wins over Doncaster and Leeds as well as beating Edinburgh.

With just my other favourite team Ulster to play next week, the Falcons have improved from last season's performance, not as many gaps, not signs of last year when the ball just had to be spread wide by the opposition and the Falcons seemed to crumble. The key man for me at the Falcons, Jimmy Gopperth, my favourite Falcon, and the man who always gets the points. Others to watch include Samoan, Taiasina Tuifua and new number 8, Chris York. Falcons fans have accepted the marathon that is next season will need to get off to the best possible start. And as the season grows closer, the challenge for Dean Richards presents itself, can he take the Falcons straight back up?

I'm Kristian. 18. And my mind is filled with rugby shaped thoughts. Supporting Ulster Rugby, Newcastle Falcons and of course the mighty Ireland. Tommy Bowe is the MAN !!!! SUFTUM.