Love
him or hate him, and I suspect with most Irish fans it's the latter,
you just can't ignore RTE pundit George Hook.
I'm
sure I'm not the only one who wonders what he's going to say after an
Irish display – if it's good, you expect him to find fault, if it
was poor like it was in New Plymouth, you have to wait for his
over-the-top soundbite before
you get on with the task of actually analysing what went on.
And
sure enough straight after they cut to studio, Tom McGuirk teed up
the infamous curmudgeon to deliver the line he had clearly been
working on since half-time : “It's a sad day for Irish rugby”.
Right.
Thanks George. We'll take it from here.
First
of all, I want to dispel this hysteria about Ireland missing out on
the bonus point. I know this is ironic given I moaned about Leinster not going for one on Friday night, but I have maths to back me up.
In
a 22-round competition like the RaboDirectPRO12, a decent haul of
bonus points can be like a couple of extra wins for you in the final
reckoning. But in a pool where you just play the four matches, this
is rarely the case, especially in World Cups – I already mentioned
this in a piece I did about our order of fixtures in Pool C :
“There have been 25 round-robin pools altogether (in RWC history). Of those, 21 have finished with one team winning all their matches, the 2nd placed team losing one, the 3rd placed team losing 2 and so on to the bottom team which lost all their matches. And that number would be 22 if Japan and Canada not drawn 12-all in Bordeaux in 2007.”
In
other words, since Australia beat Italy, the only way bonus points
should come into play in this pool will be if we draw with either of
those teams. And with rugby being a game where you need to play the
percentages, you can't go desperately for bonus points on the
off-chance of a draw happening in a later game.
So
while there definitely was plenty to moan about in our display, I
feel it's important we keep our criticism not only constructive, but
also relevant, and in my opinion not getting a fourth try, indeed
even not smashing the Americans to all oblivion on the scoreboard,
doesn't count as either.
And
another myth I'd like to dispel is this argument that the USA had so
few professionals on the park. This wasn't a case of Stevenage
Borough playing Manchester United in the FA Cup. Or at least if you
must argue that it was, you must alter your analogy so that the Cup
draw is made three years before the match is played AND an ex-United
coach is at the helm at Stevenage.
That's
right...it is almost THREE YEARS since Eddie O'Sullivan knew he'd be
up against his former employers. And although I wasn't exactly his
biggest fan especially when it comes to preparing for World Cups, I'd
have been very surprised if his charges didn't put in a full-blooded
display whatever the experience or ability, and that's exactly what
they did, and full credit to them.
Now...having
tried to walk back from Hooky's remark, I can now try and focus on
what I really think is going wrong in the Irish camp. And I'll start
by pinpointing what I feel was Kidney's biggest error in the August
so-called “warm-ups” - selecting Paddy Wallace at 12 for the
match in Bordeaux.
I
know it seems like I have a complex about Wallace but my point is
this – he was already tried there against Scotland and failed. We
“only” had the four matches and D'Arcy always had to have some
game time before he got on the plane. Therefore I feel someone else
should have been tried at 12 when we played France first.
Since
they weren't and Wallace again proved ineffective in the areas we
need a 12 to be effective (as
a case in point see Jamie Roberts' barn-storming display against the
Springboks),
we're now in a situation where D'Arcy has clearly lost his mojo and
while there may be options who have played at their province as
inside-centre, there's precious few viable test-level options left.
Basically,
I can't see Kidney as having any choice but to let Gordon keep the 12
jumper and “hope for the best”. And that's not the kind of thing
you want to be doing when you're facing an in-form Wallabies lineup.
Then
of course you have the whole 9/10 combo scenario. Honestly, I can't
say anymore about how little sense it makes to have non-provincial
pairings play together, UNLESS, as I said after the England game,
it's to give them time to gel in case they're forced to hook up
through injury or what-not. The only way we'll know for sure it when
we see Kidney's selection for next Saturday. Personally, I think
he'd be mad not to go for Reddan and Sexton. But we'll have to wait
and see.
Not
that I'm saying Sexton had a good game, far from it. The only time
he showed his true form was towards the end of the first half when he
came to life and took charge of the move that led to Tommy Bowe's
opening try.
But
if you had to find excuses for our outhalf, you could point to the
conditions. Cast your mind back to November 2010 when we were lucky
to lose by just 2 points to the Springboks. Kidney admitted that day
they made a mistake by going for an expansive game given the wet
conditions, and it was clear that they were determined not to make
the same mistake twice here.
As
a result, more often than not when Sexton was passing it was to his
inside channel. And with the pressure the American forwards were
putting on us, even when it did get to Brian O'Driscoll his only
viable option was to kick for territory.
So
in other words, it seems like our two star outhalves are like “wet”
and “dry” tyres in motor-racing. Unfortunately I'm not sure World
Cup rules allow for a pit stop to switch 10s over if the weather
happens to change on match day.
But
you can't blame the weather for Sexton's poor kicking, that's for
sure. He's from Ireland, for crying out loud! However, given O'Gara
sent his first one wide plus the failures so far in this tournament
by the likes of Wilkinson and Carter, it wouldn't be ludicrous to
raise questions about the match ball.
As
for Conor Murray, were it not his first full start for his country,
I'd say his display would almost make you feel Tomás O'Leary had
travelled with the squad anyway. But it WAS his first start, and he
had some good carries going forward, with some average-at-best box
kicks in the mix. He will improve, but shouldn't start against the
Wallabies.
Finally
on the negative front, unfortunately I must shine the spotlight on
Shane Jennings. Invisible in the first half, he came into view for
the wrong reason in the second – in the TV replay of a ruck
situation where American forwards were allowed to come piling over an
unprotected ball to force yet another turnover, Jenno's number 7
jumper is seen arriving way, way too late to deal with it.
Now,
to the positives, of which there were several, and first and foremost there was Jamie Heaslip. Tackling, jackling, lineouts, carries, and
most of all a masterclass at the back of our powerful scrum. Easily
our best performer on the park, and doesn't seem to be getting
anywhere near the praise he deserves.
Also
there were the set-pieces. If you have to be cynical and say that
they SHOULD have been perfect given the opposition then so be it.
But given the aggression the Americans were showing at the breakdown
I dare say they'd have been trying to rough us up at our scrums &
lineouts and this just wasn't happening.
And
you know what, I have a feeling Rory Best may have done enough to
earn a start against the Wallabies – not just for his try, but for
his mastery of the post-lineout mauls every time. That could be a
crucial weapon next Saturday.
If
you want to know more about my individual player assessments, you'll see them on my player ratings piece on The Rugby Blog.
Basically
what I wanted to do with this writeup is acknowledge that Declan
Kidney has a headache or two this week to contend with, while at the
same time conveying my overall assertion that we should be happy with
the win and, as I have been saying since the start of the Six Nations
back in February, reserve final judgement on the coaching staff until
full-time in Eden Park next Saturday.
And
at least if things go wrong for us then, we'll get to watch Hooky try
to extend the misery of his post-match quote further than he did
Sunday. Might even be a task too big for The Great Windbag himself.
PS
: Here's my 22 to face the Aussies: Kearney,
Bowe, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Earls, Sexton, Reddan, Healy, Best, Ross,
O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Ferris, O'Brien, Heaslip. Bench : Flannery,
Court, Ryan, Leamy, Murray, O'Gara, Trimble.JLP
