Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
Now that Operation “Get Connacht Back Into The Heineken Cup” has begun successfully thanks to Leinster’s win in Wycombe, it’s up to Ulster & Munster to get their end of the deal done in The Big Show.
********************
Saturday, April 6
Heineken Cup – Quarterfinals
Clérmont Auvergne v Montpellier, 3:40pm
No need for a long-winded tactical preview. It’s Clérmont playing at the Marcel-Michelin. Nuff Said. Clérmont by 12.
Saracens v Ulster, 6:30pm
How do we tag the Ulstermen going into this match, arguably the most competitive of the quarterfinals? Are they underdogs or not?
When this fixture was decided it certainly seemed as though Mark Anscombe’s men would be favourites after a near-perfect start to the season…true, they let the home advantage slip away in their pool but overall their form was excellent.
Then came the Six Nations and the two clubs for the most part followed the form of their national teams, with Sarries rising to the summit of the Premiership while Ulster gave way in the Pro12 to Glasgow. As they travelled to Dublin last weekend it seemed this could be a very tough ask indeed.
THEN they produced a display at the RDS which was in many ways reminiscent of their famous siege at Thomond Park almost a year ago to the day. Hopefully for their sake that performance didn’t come one week too early, because they’ll need another one in order to “#MakeTwickenhamHome” (super hashtag campaign by the way) against a Saracens team that will be an extremely different proposition.
For while Ulster will be looking to repeat their away performance from last year’s quarterfinal, Mark McCall’s Premiership outfit will be doing everything they can to do exactly the opposite. They got blown away by Clérmont last season and with a home domestic semifinal all but secured, they have had the time to put all their focus on reaching the European one as well.
They have taken the interesting step of moving Owen Farrell to his Six Nations role of outhalf – maybe in an attempt to unsettle Ulster’s examination of DVDs, but also to give him some time at 10 with Warren Gatland in attendance. Either way it seems the match could hinge on his performance, and more importantly the ability of the visitor’s backrow at unsettling him.
On Ulster’s side of things they have close to their best lineup having received a major boost in that Tommy Bowe can be named to the bench. But in reality it’s the return of John Afoa and Luke Marshall to the starting lineup that they needed most of all.
The key to success for Ulster seems to be in their attitude. It’s not enough for them to provide scrappy wins as the underdog anymore. They got to the final last year and are looking to repeat that, plus there’s two trips down the A/M1 on offer to them if they get past this fixture on the way to going one better. If they can take this game to Sarries and impose themselves early on I reckon they can have this in the bag without the need for Bowe to even grace the Twickenham turf. Ulster by 7.
Amlin Challenge Cup – Quarterfinal
Bath v Stade Francais, 1pm
Bath will have to rely on just how seriously Stade will take this fixture and looking at the state of play in the Top14 I reckon Les Pinks will be going after this full throttle. They’re out of playoff contention at home and although victory at the Rec would give them another away trip in the semi, Perpignan have two winnable league matches in the meantime and could well be established in the top 6 by then and thus not need the win so much. A lot of Irish interest in this one with Stringer for Bath and ex-imports Wright and Warwick in the Stade squad, plus American Scott LaValla who played for Trinity. Stade by 7.
Super Rugby
Hurricanes v Waratahs, 7:35am
Western Force v Melbourne Rebels, 9:40am
Cheetahs v Stormers, 4:05pm
This one looks like it could be my Upset of the Week, though after the road trip the Cheetahs just had the home win may not seem too much like it. All eyes from Leinster fans will once more be on rumoured target Isa-“replacement” Willie Le Roux. Cheetahs by 4.
British & Irish Cup – Quarterfinal
Bedford v Llanelli, 3pm
Friendly
Connacht Eagles v Enisei STM, 3pm
The news of Pat Lam arriving in Galway during the week had an “Elvis is in the building” feel to it but with the senior team off this weekend, this fixture at the Sportsground (free entry by the way) is the perfect chance for him to get a feel for the place. All I know about this visiting team is that they are from Krasnoyarsk in central Russia and played this same fixture two years ago to the day. For the Eagles lineup click here.
Ulster Bank League – Division 1A
Clontarf v Dolphin, 2:30pm
St Mary's College v Shannon, 2:30pm
Sunday, April 7
Heineken Cup Quarterfinals
Harlequins v Munster, 2pm
A shootout between two very wounded animals at the Stoop. Both have a chance to put shocking domestic form behind them and get to a European semifinal which, while probably meaning a trip to play favourites Clérmont, will at least be away from the Marcel-Michelin.
The Munster Rugby Supporters Club made a bold statement going into the weekend by publishing a video of their fans’ favourite 5 favourite moments in the provinces’ history. Rob Penney will do well to note that not one of them is from this season.
Much like Ulster, he welcomes back a test winger from injury as “Mr Tekkers” himself Simon Zebo returns to the wing but against one of the top teams from the “Boshership” the question has to be asked…will the “expansive” game create enough space for him to do his thing?
Establishing a new culture at a ball club is definitely a noble goal but in this big knockout contest, one that is certainly winnable on paper, I’m wondering if the wiser heads in the Munster set-up need to do a French-style “coup” and aim to rip up the new playbook and bring the game to Quins old-school.
Of course the one argument against that is the fact that Conor O’Shea’s rise to coaching prominence was announced to the world stage by beating Munster at Thomond Park a couple of years ago, so he probably won’t be too bothered whichever game the 2-time champions bring to the table.
As much as I’d love to see a trio of Irish victories this weekend, I can’t help but think Munster will fall short here, for several reasons. Downey and Laulala don’t seem a good fit for them in the centre at this level. Despite Zebo being back I reckon they will badly miss Howlett and Earls. And in the pack, although at lock they have one of the best, most experienced trios in the competition with Ryan & Poc starting and DOC on the bench, elsewhere I see names like Sherry, Botha and O’Mahony, all capable of affording Nick Evans penalty shots at goal which he’s well able to slot over.
Trust me Munster fans…this prediction of mine is a good thing for you, plus even if it does come true it’s a bad thing for me as a Leinster fan as it will make you all the more eager to knock us over at Thomond next weekend! Harlequins by 10.
Toulon v Leicester, 5:30pm
The Leicester Tigers are a bit like Munster in that whatever their form you bet against them in any European contest anywhere at your own risk. But this Toulon lineup is just so laden with Galacticos (almost as many Englishmen as the visitors I might add) that I can only see them making full use of home advantage, and comfortably so at that. Toulon by 14.
British & Irish Cup Quarterfinals
Bristol v Leinster A, 3pm
As expected, Bristol are resting some players with more important Championship matches to come, so this could turn out to be quite the even battle. Also Leinster should be able to benefit from the senior team playing a couple of nights before and get some transfers on to their bench. Dominic Ryan captains Leinster A and is joined in the back row by Ben Marshall, who has featured at lock in the Pro12 this season, and Leo Auva’a who has scored a try or two in this competition both this season and last. Without knowing too much about the home side in previewing this fixture I can allow my heart rule my head for my prediction. Leinster by 3.
Cornish Pirates v Munster A, 3pm
Despite having had a better pool campaign than their Leinster counterparts, the quarterfinal draw seems to have gone against Munster A. Not only will they be denied any “cross-overs” from the senior side that plays the same day, but also they face a team that is both used to success in this competition and out of contention domestically. Still, I think they can do it – it will be a chance for JJ Hanrahan to show what he’s got, and it is certainly a lot. Munster by 5.
********************
That's it from me for this week...be sure and enjoy your rugby this Easter weekend wherever you are! JLP
