Let The Schmidt Hit The Fan - Rd 10 (CON)

Since the start of the season four bloggers, one representing each province, have taken turns selecting their ideal Irish matchday 23 for a test match to take place the following weekend (so current injury status must be taken into account).

This week it’s the turn of Connachtman to look ahead for the Six Nations champions, while comparing his current choices to the ones he made back at the start of the season.

Click this link for his last selection and these for the latest from Leinster, Ulster & Munster.

Seeing as how this is my last round of selection it seems a fine time to expose the fickle nature of online punditry and expose me for the charlatan that I am by doing a quick compare and contrast post with my original selection, all those many months ago. Here goes, let the slagging commence!

Loosehead Prop

Original Selection: Cian Healy

Current Selection: Cian Healy, aka DJ CHURCH

What I got right: Ok so at the start of the season I took the really bold option of picking Healy to start and the only thing that has really changed is that now I'm backing him as a chooser of choons too. Sorted.

So wrong: On the bench I selected Dave Kilcoyne, who had a difficult second season, and failed to foretell the emergence of Jack McGrath as a serious contender on the international stage. Callum Black has been good too...

Hooker

Original Selection: Rory Best

Current Selection: Rory Best

What I got right: There were a few doubts concerning his form coming into this season and he proved once again that he has the nerve to operate manfully on the biggest stage. Got through some amount of work in the six nations!

What I got wrong: Poor Mike Sherry has been injured all season but may have missed out to an in form Sean Cronin in any case. Also, didn't consider Rob Herring as a viable candidate.

Tighthead Prop

Original: Mike Ross

Current: Mike Ross

What I got right: OK so the front row wasn't a hard call but I have consistently stuck by this guy from the start and I think he had his best ever season! Last year he looked flogged and this year he was getting around and tackling like a world class player.

What I got so very, very wrong: Jamie Hagan. Give me a break! It didn't seem like there was a single truly viable option at the start of the season, and now we have Marty Moore pushing hard. Unfortunately Declan Fitzpatrick looks like he could have a serious injury, but fair play to Rodney 'Dave' Ah You for having a great season out west and getting to train with the big boys in January!

Second Row

Original: Donnacha Ryan & Paul O'Connell

Current: Devin Toner & Paul O'Connell

What I got right: Paul O'Connell. Obvz.

What I got wrong: Devin Toner? I thought he'd give it a go but I don't think anyone predicted just how good a season he would have! Credit to Dan Tuohy too for a good showing. Obviously Ryan was unlucky with injury, but Mike McCarthy didn't really show up this year.

Back Row

Original: Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien & Jamie Heaslip

Current: Sean O'Brien, Chris Henry & Jamie Heaslip

Right: Pretty much got this one bang on actually! It must be noted that O'Mahony is left out of the current one because he's injured and that my first post mentioned all four of these players as my back row options for the season. I even mentioned that I thought Henderson would see some game time at 6.

Passing mention was given to Tommy O'Donnell and Jordi Murphy too.

Wrong: Enough gloating, could not have predicted just how well O'Mahony would get on this season!

Scrum Half

Original: Conor Murray

Current: Conor Murray

Right: Wasn't a hard one to call really, and I'd still stick with Reddan on the bench because he's playing great rugby. I suggested Marmion would push one of Reddan or Boss out of the top three based on age profile and I'm sticking with that call as Boss hasn't had the greatest season.

Also, thinking that Paul Marshall could miss his chance to make a mark, he probably has.

Wrong: Thinking Cathal Sheridan would displace Duncan Williams at Munster. It turns out Duncan Williams can really play and I would like to retract everything bad I ever said about the guy. There, I said it, I feel better...

Out Half

Original: Jonny Sexton

Current: Jonny Sexton

Right: Yes

Wrong: Ian Madigan did not kick on as expected and claim the reserve spot. As far as I'm concerned, Paddy Jackson is firmly in place as the number two, even if Madigan is more versatile off the bench.

Centre

Original: Stuart Olding & Brian O'Driscoll

Current: Gordon D'Arcy & Brian O'Driscoll

Right: BOD

Wrong: I was so terribly wrong about Darce being past it! I should have known, he's been proving people wrong for so many years now. As far as Olding goes, he was my wildcard selection thrown in for interests sake and I like to think he would have been in contention if it weren't for a season-ending injury.

Back Three

Original: Simon Zebo, Craig Gilroy & Rob Kearney

Current: Dave Kearney, Andrew Trimble & Rob Kearney

Right: Rob Kearney. Although, I did say I thought he was in only on reputation and that his form wasn't really up to scratch, but he's had a great season.

Also, I said that McFadden would make the bench a lot because of his work ethic and that Henshaw would get a look-in somewhere.

Wrong: Pretty much everything else! I originally went for the glamour pairing on the wings and I didn't even give a mention to the two solid lads who were outstanding in the Six Nations! I don't think anyone could have predicted just how well Trimble would perform, or that he would keep a fit Tommy Bowe out of the team. Magical selection calls really, and ones that really do prove you have to be inside a training camp to really see who merits selection.

And on that rather sombre note I will sign off, here's to a Grand Slam in a World Cup Year and all our dreams for 2015 coming true!

Original Selection

1: Cian Healy

2: Rory Best

3: Mike Ross

4: Donnacha Ryan

5: Paul O’Connell

6: Peter O’Mahony

7: Sean O’Brien

8: Jamie Heaslip

9: Conor Murray

10: Jonny Sexton

11: Simon Zebo

12: Stuart Olding

13: Brian O’Driscoll

14: Craig Gilroy

15: Rob Kearney

Replacements:

16: Mike Sherry

17: Dave Kilcoyne

18: Jamie Hagan

19: Ian Henderson

20: Chris Henry

21: Eoin Reddan

22: Ian Madigan

23: Fergus McFadden

Connachtman [@connachtman87] - sometime blogger, long time reader, avid supporter of Connacht rugby against all odds and in any weather.

---

Many thanks to Connachtman for his contributions throughout the season…next week on Let The Schmidt Hit The Fan we hear from our Leinster blogger Iain O’Connor.

Leinster-15 Edinburgh-13

CATCH 22

The 2013/14 campaign may not be over just yet but now that the 22 rounds of the Pro12 regular season have been completed, we have a fair amount of concrete stats with which we can compare Matt O'Connor's first season in charge at Leinster with Joe Schmidt's last one.

We already knew how their respective European campaigns measure up...last season we finished second in our pool while this year we won the toughest pool out of the six. Sure, last season we went on to win the Amlin but that was thanks to victories against teams who have hardly set the world alight since, while this year our “reward” for topping the pool was a trip to Toulon.

Last season in the Rabo we finished second and only got the final at home due to a technicality. We'll never know how it would have gone had it been in Belfast but it surely had to be worth at least a point or two on the scoreboard for Ulster.

This season we have finished top of the table, with more league points (82) than Leinster have ever achieved in the Celtic League. Tries scored may be down on last season (57 v 63) but tries conceded is remarkably better (30 v 46) and all 4 of Leinster's league defeats were by 7 points or less.

Sorry Matt, but that's just not good enough.

Am I tongue in cheek with that last sentence? Well, I guess that depends on what angle I'm taking.

If I were to base my appraisal purely on Leinster's performance on Saturday evening against Edinburgh, well then sure, the statement holds water.

But if you take an overall view, then I maintain my assertion that O'Connor needs to be given until at least a couple of matches into next season's Rugby Champions Cup before we can cast final judgement. Failing miserably in the upcoming Rabo playoffs will heap pressure on him I certainly grant you that, but if we're going to set the bar for success purely at Joe Schmidt levels then I'd have to wonder if anyone would ever fancy coming here in the future.

OK – got that off my chest. This is a writeup for Saturday, so what say I get on with it.

First of all, I have to hand it to Edinburgh for playing their part. I'm not sure they quite had nothing to play for...Scottish rugby in general had a lot to gain with them causing an upset as it would have increased the chances of a grand final in Glasgow for the first time. But still, you would have forgiven them for playing as though they had summertime pursuits like foreign tours and rounds of golf on their minds.

When they had chances on the day, they took them. Who knows, they could have won had they not lost Beard, Denton and Scott in the first half or if Visser and Scott hadn't fluffed their transfer (with no opponents near I might add) which caused the Bezuidenhout try to be disallowed. Right to the end they were contesting and they deserve credit.

As for Leinster, though many may disagree, I thought things weren't all that bad either. It was Rhys Ruddock and Mike McCarthy who were caught napping in the 65^th minute when Greig Laidlaw broke through from deep to set up Tim Visser for Edinburgh's only try, but even though it brought the visitors to within 2 points, the RTE replays seemed to be more concerned with the injury sustained by BOD than how the gap was found.

But otherwise things weren't too bad defensively, plus when we had the ball and our goal was simply retaining possession, much like Ravenhill last week we showed we could get the job done.

Let's be clear...if we can restrict opponents to just 13 points at the RDS, we should win every time. Now, here's is where the doubt comes over my use of the word “should”.

If the opposition gets 13, we'll of course need to get at least 14 and on Saturday, we made life very difficult for ourselves turning possession into points. And this could well be the very reason why Leinster fans are so frustrated with Matt O'Connor.

Ball kicked out on the full in open play. Botched lineouts after clean catch. Conceded pen on own scrum put-in. Foot in touch when ball sent out wide. Ball stripped in tackle. Pile those on top of several occasions when we flat out knocked the ball on and you have a multitude of sins committed when we had the ball in our possession.

Yet for the entire 80 minutes we persevered with a strategy of incessant phase play down the middle with the only other options being either chuck it out wide or plant a grubber through. Now to be fair, this actually worked as early as the 9^th minute when Jordi Murphy went over after (my man of the match) Dave Kearney had received the ball out wide and forced his way back infield while still gaining yards.

Also to be fair, there was one notable exception to the general offensive rule where Kearney The Younger cut in from his wing on a set move. And guess what, he scored.

So what I'm wondering is...were we toying with Edinburgh? Was it our intention to simply get the win we needed whilst not providing Ulster with a display that shows all of our hand going into next week? If so, that's definitely a risky policy and it's one that only just paid off, and the real fruits of it won't be known until next Saturday.

But while the resulting contest provided little entertainment for the drenched RDS crowd (though at least the rain held off while the match was actually on), I saw just about enough to keep my glass as half full for the time being. The official farewell to BOD & Leo was a significant sub-plot to the occasion and put in that context, for it to take place on the back of any kind of home victory had to be a good thing.

Will we win the league playing the way we did last Saturday? Absolutely not. But do I think we'll play the same way next Saturday? I have to say no.

What the makeup of the matchday 23 will be is a mystery...last week I “demanded” that Ian Madigan be retained at 10 and to be honest I have given up trying to predict what O'Connor is going to do for such a key position.

Maybe that's exactly what he wants the Ulster coaching set-up to do as well, but when his main problem is offensive production, again I say it's a risky route to take.

Still though, as things stand right now, I sincerely hope Leinster fans are united behind Matt O'Connor and his squad. Whatever reservations anyone may have about the Pro12, it's still a major trophy that's there to be won, we're the reigning champions and we definitely have a strong chance of retaining it. Come On You Boys In Blue. JLP

Click here for post-match reaction on the HarpinOnRugby Facebook page

Also this weekend

Dragons 20 - 19 Benetton Treviso

Glasgow 54 - 0 Zebre

Munster 17 - 19 Ulster

Ospreys 45 - 20 Connacht

Scarlets 27 - 15 Cardiff Blues

	TEAM	PLD	PTS	W	PD	T	PF	TD
1	LEINSTER	22	82	17	202	57	554	27
2	GLASGOW	22	79	18	175	53	484	31
3	MUNSTER	22	74	16	199	56	538	29
4	ULSTER	22	70	15	151	45	470	19
5	OSPREYS	22	66	13	183	59	571	27
6	SCARLETS	22	55	11	-3	43	435	-2
7	CARDIFF BLUES	22	41	8	-113	32	425	-23
8	EDINBURGH	22	38	7	-129	38	397	-19
9	NG DRAGONS	22	35	7	-138	34	392	-12
10	CONNACHT	22	35	6	-138	42	371	-12
11	TREVISO	22	30	5	-215	31	376	-41
12	ZEBRE	22	29	5	-212	35	347	-24

 

Semifinal lineup

 

Fri May 16  Glasgow Warriors v Munster, 7:35pm

 

Sat May 17  Leinster v Ulster, 7pm

Dealing With The Pro12lem

Rather than put lipstick on the pig, what say we carve it up so more can get a taste?

What you see above could be how Welsh rugby fans see the Pro12 table.  Well…the ones who follow the regions that is.  If it’s the ones who follow the clubs, they wouldn’t be looking at it at all because they’d probably fear getting some Roger Lewis stink on them.

But whatever we say about the crisis in Welsh rugby, it seems this imperfect entity, once called the Celtic League (which at least had some branding to bind all the teams together) but now is simply called the Pro12, is to stay with us for a while.

Today we saw the publication of a Pro12 “Team Of The Year” for the 2013/14 regular season.  I’m not writing this post just to complain about the composition of the team, though I definitely could as there is only one from the Glasgow Warriors despite their having won more matches than any other team in the league this season.

Anyway…arguing over such teams is pointless.  Nobody is ever going to agree anyway.  If it were down to me, I wouldn’t have an official team like that for a multi-national league and leave such squabbles to us bloggers.

What the Pro12 needs to do in my opinion is to turn it’s biggest weakness into a strength.

I called for a conference structure before when I wrote up the Zebre v Leinster match back in February. 

Thing is though…I probably have to make my argument again - why?  Because not many people were all that interested in a writeup for Zebre v Leinster back in February, probably not even fans of the two teams involved as it was also a Six Nations weekend.

So here’s a snippet of what I said back then :

---

One thing is for sure…a single 12-team league for teams from three or four separate nations is not sustainable.

In American sports, they of course have their own issues, but in general they have a decent handle when it comes to structuring the season.  One key element of this is the organisation into conferences and divisions.

This format, which was adopted by Super Rugby a couple of years ago, is designed almost exclusively to deal with many of the problems we now have in the Rabo. 

Say, for example, the 12 teams played each other throughout the season but instead of one big table there were three divisions of four along geographical lines.  Teams would still play across the divisions but there would be more emphasis on matchups within their own.

Under this system not only could you have more derby matches and less travelling, but in the Welsh case it would surely be a lot easier for the press to cover the league over there - a four-team league table of all regions looks a whole lot better (remember : a major goal is to attract new fans, even the fair-weather ones) than a big 12-team one with Irish provinces at the top.

---

Here’s my suggestion for the Pro12 conferences:

IRISH	WELSH	INTERNATIONAL
Connacht	Cardiff Blues	Edinburgh
Leinster	NG Dragons	Glasgow
Munster	Ospreys	Treviso
Ulster	Scarlets	Zebre

I suggest that the regular season fixtures are cut to 20, so we can lose two rounds during international time. (If clubs are still concerned about losing two matches from a revenue standpoint why not organise lucrative exhibition matches for those dates?)

Then teams play each other within their conference four times instead of two and then each team from the other conferences once.  Would you be up for extra chances to get to interprovincial matches throughout the year?  Ulster v Leinster in Ravenhill was last Friday but the last time they met there competitively was December 2012.  Over a calendar year in between. 

I know the Scot-Italian thing could pose problems travel-wise, but what if double-headers were arranged with 5-day turnarounds?  GLA v TRE & EDI v ZEB on Sunday, GLA v ZEB, EDI v TRE on Friday, for example.  Wouldn’t be perfect, but we have to play with the hand we’ve been dealt.

Overall what it means is more derby matches, though still some cross-over ones, but most importantly when, say, the Welsh press report on the league they can focus on their own conference and a region will always be “top of the league”.  That may sound like a trivial point, but in marketing terms I feel it’s an important one. 

The common consensus is that nobody cares about clubs from other jurisdictions, so with a tweak to the structure we can give them the chance to ignore them, at least until play-off time.

As for qualification for those play-offs, obviously the winner of each conference would reach the knockout phase, plus there can be any amount of “wild-cards” you want, though I would suggest the two runners-up with the best records play each other to join the conference winners in the semifinals.

I’d also ditch the “Pro12” name to leave the league open to expansion. Maybe a long term multinational sponsor can lend it’s name (I hear Heineken might be available) but should the Welsh ever want to add a 5th region, the proposed Aberdeen franchise ever come about or dare I say it, teams from places like Georgia want to join, it should be done without having to re-brand every time.

By the way…on the notion of a “British & Irish League” - that sounds great but I very much doubt the English would ever agree to it.  It would create the very real possibility, even with the Rugby Champions Cup super-loot, of all PRL clubs going without a major trophy in a season.

I’m not saying my suggestions are perfect by any means. It’s just something to get a debate going, based on a premise that we cannot force this league through as it is and just hope that the problems it currently has will go away.

Surely it has to be better than naming three players from a region that can’t finish higher than sixth to the league’s so-called “Team of the Year”?  JLP