The Pagano Preview #14

Sky Sports with their endless series of dramatic montages would have you believe that Lions Tours are all about history, tradition, honour and what-not. 

For me, it’s about winning a test series, and it finally gets underway this Saturday.  Elsewhere the season draws to a close for the rest of the Six Nations after England & Ireland wrapped things up last week, plus the Wolfpuppies are in action one final time.

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Saturday, June 22

LIONS TOUR

Australia v Lions, 11:05am

We have agonized over this Lions XV for months & months, and now, right or wrong, Warren has made his final choice and it’s up to us to get behind them.

But amid all our agonizing, all our selecting, all our bickering, there is one thing we have been neglecting…just what are the Wallabies going to bring to the party?

Well maybe “neglecting” is a strong word, for it’s not like they have given us anything to go on.  Kim Jong Un’s goings on in North Korea have been easier to understand than those of Robbie Deans over the past few months as he has instilled a bunker mentality into his squad.

The gamble does have a degree of sense to it…were he to allow his men to play for the Super Rugby franchises before the test series he risked injury as well as providing clues to his gameplan…instead he just sat back and allowed Gatland to worry about such things.

On the other hand, of course, it was a gamble in that his elite players will have gone several weeks without any top flight rugby, which could make it more difficult for them to hit the ground running against the tourists.

Looking at this first test, it would seem to be all about the match-ups, and there are some fascinating ones all over the park.

FOLAU v NORTH – The rugby league convert is an awesome prospect for this sport, but will that be enough in a full test fixture where every foot placement can prove the difference between winning and losing? It was vital to the Lions that North was fully fit – I just hope he really is.

IOANE v CUTHBERT – Given the Welshman’s defensive issues, this could be a mismatch when the Wallabies have the ball – much like Folau, one step the wrong way and his opposite number will be past him.  But referee Chris Pollock could play a role here.  When a team goes a man down it isn’t always easy to find the gaps but Cuthbert seems to have a knack for it.  If the Aussie backrow land on the wrong side of the ref then he could well come into his own.

O’CONNOR v SEXTON (open play) – In here lies the greatest mystery.  We have a pretty good sense of how Sexton will operate things…he won’t have the strength of Roberts at 12 but there’s still plenty of bash from his two wingers plus Croft & Heaslip.  As for what the Wallabies plan to do, well your guess is as good as mine but you have to assume it has to do with getting Folau & Ioane the ball in space.

O’CONNOR v HALFPENNY (placekicking) – Halfpenny’s near-perfection from the tee could provide the biggest influence on Deans’ strategy from the tour matches preceding the test.  They can’t afford to give him chances anywhere on the park, plus a try anywhere is almost as good as seven points on the board.  We’re not sure JOC is kicking just yet, but I’d give him the role for this kick in Hong Kong alone.  At the end of the match, having just gotten the try, nailed it despite the pressure and his being only 12.

ASHLEY-COOPER v O’DRISCOLL – May not make much of the headlines but a pivotal battle nonetheless.  Two of the best tacklers in world rugby (I still can’t fathom AAC’s double tackle against the Boks).  The media will talk at length about BOD’s history but the fact remains he has a key role to play here and will be of much help to Jonathan Davies inside him.

GENIA v PHILLIPS – Penalties, free-kicks, turnovers.  If the ball is anywhere near Will Genia when those things happen in Australia’s favour, watch out.  But we can be sure Mike Phillips will be watching out, and he’s been known to take a quick tap or two himself in his day.  With these two running the show the pace could be relentless.

MOWEN/HOOPER/PALU (GILL) v CROFT/WARBURTON/HEASLIP (LYDIATE) – Here lies the rub.  The Wallabies have a proud tradition in the backrow, and these Lions have already had a taste of it against the Super Rugby teams. And even without the likes of Messrs Elsom, Pocock and Smith at their best, they are still putting out a trio any Heineken Cup side would be happy to field.  But the Lions have a bit of talent in this area too.  Croft & Heaslip have shown the form both in helping their clubs win silverware and on this tour to earn their jerseys.  Many reckon O’Brien, Tipuric and Faletau deserve inclusion ahead of Warburton and Lydiate, so here we need them to repay their coach’s faith.  There is no doubt both have the ability to do that.  Their battle for both the ball & the referees’ sympathy should decide this series.

Three weeks ago, I would have laughed at the bookies favouring the Lions by just the three points.  As each day has passed, my confidence has been worn away…not so much by the Lions performances, but more when I appreciate the opposition they are facing and just how much it means to them to come out on top in front of their home crowd.

For once, I’m going to fall in with the professional tipsters, but a narrow victory won’t augur well for the tourists in the series overall as I reckon the home side will only get stronger. Lions by 3

TOUR MATCHES

New Zealand v France, 8:35am

Castres fly half Remi Tales gets “rewarded” for his club’s Top14 success by getting the blue 10 jumper at the end of the tour with the series lost and Dan Carter returning for the All Blacks.  Luck him, eh?  I expect the French to put some points on the board, but not until the final quarter.  A high-scoring warmup to the Lions test this one, nothing much more to see.  New Zealand by 20

Scotland v Italy, 1:15

PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING

South Africa v Samoa, 4:15pm

PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING

Sunday, June 23

PACIFIC NATIONS CUP

Tonga v Fiji, 4:10am

This is effectively a final…they lie 3rd and 2rd on the table respectively but the Canadians in first have completed their matches so the winner will overtake them.  Worth getting up early to watch on Setanta live?  Meh, maybe just record it.

Japan v USA, 5:10am

JUNIOR WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING

Samoa v Scotland, 2pm

Australia v Ireland, 2pm

South Africa v New Zealand, 2:15pm

Fiji v USA, 5:15pm

Argentina v France, 5:15pm

FINAL : Wales v England, 5:45pm

Tuesday, June 25

LIONS TOUR

Melbourne Rebels v Lions, 10:40am

PREVIEW TO PUBLISH MONDAY EVENING

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Be sure to enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP

Keego on…Replays & Reports (part 1)

The Lions aren’t enough to satisfy Keego so a little reminder of the end of May was needed…

The lions are boring me to death. There I said it!

Sky sports are a quality channel, but they are ruining it for me. So I decided I was ready to watch the rabo final today. I have been working up to it, but I hadn’t been able to get past the opening punditry without the nerves getting to me.

Here is how it went down in the Keego living room.

First thing I notice is that the crowd is drowning out Hook, Popey and Quinlan from the start. This makes for far better television watching than listening to nonsense. This game is not about the pre match ins and outs, it is about the blue army and the Ulster fans in the stands.

From kick off, Ulster look nervous. As they have done in every big game they have played in 4 years. They get exposed 3 minutes in, Captain Leo athletically wins a lineout, hands it to Jennings and he is lead to the try line by Mike Ross. It was like a conga line done by drunks at a wedding, they just marched through one player and over the line. Tries like this should not be conceded in a final. Sexton tucks away the conversation, a tricky one from near the touchline.

Ulster being about as disciplined as I was at school (that being not very) in the opening minutes have cost them another 3 points from the preds of Sexton, as well as another talking to from the ref. We are only 7 minutes in.

Ulster has their first attack from a scrum and press hard in the 11^th minute. The blue army is at full voice at this stage. Ulster win two penalties from scrums and go for third time lucky, thinking that maybe a penalty try may be the result. Third time unlucky, Boss gets stuck in at the back of the Ulster scrum and Madigan clears, Ulster heads start to drop a little bit. The ref was harsh both on a Ross pulling down the scrum call and Boss being allowed go for the ball under Williams. Both calls leveled out.

Jennings appears to have been doing ballet in the last while, he has twinkle toes today. The game is moving fast, McFadden gives away a lineout at the end of the 13^th minute. Ulster lineout, these do not worry the opposition this season. Best has not been throwing well at all at the business end of the season.

‘Piennar turns away and gets a face full of Boss’ Nugent is in fine form today. Leinster where strong in the scrum in the 15^th minute. Boss is causing a lot of problems so far for Ulster. The crowd is so loud that Ulster cannot hear the lineout call; it is nearly stolen by Leinster but Bowe passes to Jackson and over to Diack and Sexton stops him enough for the rest of the Leinster defense to swarm and hold the ball up. Another victory for Leinster. Williams was one on one with Leinster and chose to pass, shows nerves.

The resulting scrum shows Leinster gaining momentum. Ulster refuses to let go of Boss and give away a penalty. Boss and Jennings playing blinders so far. Ulster is playing like the team we expected them to be, frightened and unasured.

The tempo has been fairly epic so far, 20 minutes in and the Ulster fans are rattled at their thought that the ref is showing bias to Leinster. Nonsense! Jackson puts the boot to the ball and finds touch in the 21^st minute. Leinster is nowhere near being found out in the lineout. Sexton slow to get up off the deck, Piennar boots the ball down to inside the Leinster 22. Some kick. It is a game of back and forth, no team surging in front, the Leinster defense is a different level. Ulster is very slow to get the ball out to their running from any breakdown. Leinster has at least 2 players on Williams every time he gets near the ball. Ulster put their first points on the board in the 23^rd minute. Jackson is not kicking today. Afoa is getting attention to his right leg. The Ulster fans do not get overly loud at the sight of their first points.

10-3 to Leinster after 24 minutes.

Sexton puts the ball out on the full from the kick off. He is looking a bit delicate. Scrum on the half way, 25 minutes in. Olding looks to be some player. Ulster is starting to go forward, Best flattens Strauss and the momentum is shifting. McLaughlin aims low on Williams and Ulster cough up another penalty. As soon as Ulster starts to gain momentum they give away stupid penalties. It is costing them big time.

Strauss down after being flattened by Best. He may not be able to throw straight, but he can run straight. Strauss back up to throw the lineout and Leinster win another penalty, or Ulster gives another one away in the 28^th minute. Henry making a mistake that a 13 year old wouldn’t. Strauss taken off in the 28^th minute for Cronin. That must have been some bang he took. Bleeding from the head.

Sexton up to kick in the 29^th minute. A misfire from Sexton on a straight kick. He still looks a bit delicate. The Ulster fans cheer as if they have scored. It shows where their heads are in the 30^th minute.

Leinster is getting across the gain line at every time, until Toner is robbed and the ball makes its way to Bowe, who loses the ball forward. The game is moving faster than I can type. Trimble nearly gets away but knocks on. Scrum in the 31^st minute on the half way line. Finally the Ulster fans can be heard, but their team gives away another penalty, this time in the scrum. The area where they thought they would have the upper hand, they are losing their grip on.

Sexton calls the kick at goal. Some Ulster fans making noise while the kick is happening. No place for that. Big kick from the half way and the preds attached to Sexton make it 13-3 to Leinster in the 33^rd minute.

Ulster goes forward from the kick off, some ferocity back in their game. Jennings gives away a penalty, Pienaar points to the posts and they have a kick to double their tally to 6. He does so in a way that keeps Jackson even further away from the kicking duties.

The game being played at a ferocious pace, Leinster charging from the kickoff. Ulster look more organized but Leinster keep tearing through them. Up to the Ulster 22. I am getting sore watching this game. A nice little fight between Afoa and Healy, penalty awarded to Leinster for more Ulster indiscipline. Sexton slots over another kick in the 39^th minute. A lot of booing from the Ulster fans. There is no place for this. If you are an Ulster fan and booing at this point in the game I am calling you a football fan, not a rugby fan.

16-6 with 39 minutes gone, Strauss back on.

Half time thoughts: this is a ferocious game. Nonstop for 40 minutes. Awesome defence from Leinster and a lot of penalties given away by Ulster, stupid penalties. Leinster looking comfortable going into half time.

Tune in next time for part 2 of my commentary on a game that was played ages ago….

PART TWO WILL PUBLISH FRIDAY AT 6PM

Keego (@nkeegan): Blogger, former professional wrestler, sometime attempted rugby player (@TheThirsty3rds), professional procrastinator and attempted musician with a fondness for long walks on the bar, tea and the couch. Opinionated Leinster fan and constant gardener.

ACT Brumbies-14 Lions-12

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ALL FOR THE BEST?

Good sweet Mother of all that’s holy, this was an awful, awful game of rugby. 

Never mind all the errors…the relentless high-kicking tennis reminded me how horrible 2009 would have been if Irish teams weren’t winning everything. 

This of course made the conditions perfect for an Australian “Alone It Stands” occasion, and fair play to the Brumbies, they did it.

And before the province of Ulster starts hurling abuse at me for seemingly laying all the blame at Rory Best’s door with my choice of headline, trust me, I’m not.  But on top of his shortcomings throwing the darts, he was the skipper on the day and will know himself full well the responsibility that comes with that.

Look…the final winning margin was just two points and despite all the drive and fight in the Brumbies I couldn’t see them improving on their haul of fourteen, so to find out why the tourists fell short you have to look for the three they needed to keep their unbeaten run going.

And when you work your way into a strong attacking position only to lose possession in a lineout more than once, WAY more than once in fact, it’s hard not to point the finger at that set piece.  But to be fair to Rory, there were points to be had elsewhere for the Lions in Canberra.

First and foremost was Stuart Hogg who played his way out of my test 23 reckoning.  He had done well so far on this tour but although he was given a tough challenge here given the makeshift 11-15 combination he had to work with, it was a good opportunity to show his out-half abilities at this level and it didn’t happen for him.

The games’ only try came in the fifth minute.  Ben Youngs’ box kick needed to find touch but didn’t, and Brumbies full-back Jesse Mogg was quick to use the overlap and fired a long fizzing pass to his inside centre Andrew Smith.  In the screengrab you can see the moment Hogg made his poor decision.  It was outside the 22 and Wade was always going to get a hold of Smith, yet rather than cover the Brumbie 13, the young Scot chose to get in on the Smith tackle and got done by the offload.

Kurindrani still had work to do and caught a break as Wade and Kearney fell in to one another but the play could have been easily stopped at the 22 with quick thinking.  Tack on a restart straight into touch plus a couple of place-kicks that found the woodwork and you have to concede the Glasgow Warrior is better suited in the back three.

Don’t get me wrong…Hogg only turns 21 on Monday and has a super test career ahead of him.  Plus there’s a decent amount of blame to be laid at Warren Gatland’s door as well for naming him in the squad as a 10 when neither his club nor his country ever do.

In fact you could expand that selection point beyond the outhalf position.  Gats knew it was a gamble not naming more cover in his original squad.  Perhaps it was an enforced decision with the tour’s purse strings in mind?  We will probably never know.  But had he gone for 40+ in his original squad, he’d have a three-quarter line in Canberra who didn’t just meet each other in the car park as the Aussie commentators suggested.

For example, the reason Christian Wade hit the headlines last season as that he was scoring tries for fun at Wasps.  But there’s also a reason why the Wasps weren’t hitting the headlines as a club…for all the effort they put in creating space for Wade and Varndell, they were neglecting other areas.  When he joins an elite squad like the Lions, strategies won’t revolve around him so not only do the chances come less often, he has to work harder to create his own.

But I suppose we have to ask ourselves…was the goal to win the series or whitewash the tour?  In his first interview as captain Sam Warburton suggested it was the latter but I take Gatland to be much more of a realist and when he planned for this match he had to concede that it was one worth losing.

Besides…as Leinster fan I know a thing or two about winning streaks and they are very much over-rated.  At Wimbledon, they are a necessity if you are to taste true glory, but in egg-chasing, it’s not so much about how many in a row you win, it’s about winning the ones that matter.  And the way the media seizes on stats like unbeaten runs, in some ways it can be a help for these Lions not to have that on them as well as as the test pressure.  We won’t know the true merits of Gatland’s gamble until the series is over.

Of course, we must credit the individuals on the home side who helped make this historic result happen…with so much attention on the Lions back row, Brumbies number 8 & skipper Peter Kimlin did an amazing job leading his troops by example, while Jesse Mogg played his terrace cult hero role to perfection, making up for a few errors with some stunning kicks from both hand and tee.

Full kudos, however, must go to Jake White.  Seeing his reactions on the sideline you’d wonder if this result meant more to him than the World Cup in 2007!  First taking this franchise to the Super Rugby playoffs for the first time since 2004 and now this, he finds himself perfectly poised to succeed Robbie Deans in the Wallaby job.

So…what now for the Lions?  Did we learn anything at all from this contest?  It really wasn’t easy for the back row to make much of an impact.  Each from O’Brien, Tipuric and Faletau had their moments, though only the Leinster man was substituted – that could be read in two different ways but I see it as good as he had just won his side a kickable penalty at a breakdown when the call was made.

Hibbard didn’t do himself any favours here in his cameo…after all the problems with Best’s darts, the Ospreys man fluffed his first one.  Then after calling for scrum after scrum himself with the clock running down, he failed to do exactly what his position says on the tin…how the ball sailed through the channel for the Brumbies to recover only he will know.  Perhaps he’ll blame Murray but for me it’s his responsibility.  I still rate him over both Youngs and Best to start, but I now have concerns where I didn’t before this contest.

Hopefully the reports of North’s ability to start are true…if not our chances of  maximising our points haul with “Gatland-ball” deteriorate.  Below you see my final 23. 

The tour starts for real this Saturday, I can’t wait! I will have my first close look at the Wallaby selection in my preview this Friday.  JLP

PS Wondering why I didn’t mention Shane Williams? Truth be told I forgot he was playing until I finished the piece and legend though he may be, his contribution to this match wasn’t worth going back and inserting a paragraph!

Halfpenny, Cuthbert, O’Driscoll, Davies, North, Sexton, Phillips.

Vunipola, Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun-Wyn Jones, O’Connell, Croft, Warburton-c, Heaslip.

BENCH – T Youngs, Corbisiero, Cole, Parling, O’Brien, B Youngs, Farrell, Zebo.