Sky Sports with their endless series of dramatic montages would have you believe that Lions Tours are all about history, tradition, honour and what-not.
For me, it’s about winning a test series, and it finally gets underway this Saturday. Elsewhere the season draws to a close for the rest of the Six Nations after England & Ireland wrapped things up last week, plus the Wolfpuppies are in action one final time.
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Saturday, June 22
LIONS TOUR
Australia v Lions, 11:05am
We have agonized over this Lions XV for months & months, and now, right or wrong, Warren has made his final choice and it’s up to us to get behind them.
But amid all our agonizing, all our selecting, all our bickering, there is one thing we have been neglecting…just what are the Wallabies going to bring to the party?
Well maybe “neglecting” is a strong word, for it’s not like they have given us anything to go on. Kim Jong Un’s goings on in North Korea have been easier to understand than those of Robbie Deans over the past few months as he has instilled a bunker mentality into his squad.
The gamble does have a degree of sense to it…were he to allow his men to play for the Super Rugby franchises before the test series he risked injury as well as providing clues to his gameplan…instead he just sat back and allowed Gatland to worry about such things.
On the other hand, of course, it was a gamble in that his elite players will have gone several weeks without any top flight rugby, which could make it more difficult for them to hit the ground running against the tourists.
Looking at this first test, it would seem to be all about the match-ups, and there are some fascinating ones all over the park.
FOLAU v NORTH – The rugby league convert is an awesome prospect for this sport, but will that be enough in a full test fixture where every foot placement can prove the difference between winning and losing? It was vital to the Lions that North was fully fit – I just hope he really is.
IOANE v CUTHBERT – Given the Welshman’s defensive issues, this could be a mismatch when the Wallabies have the ball – much like Folau, one step the wrong way and his opposite number will be past him. But referee Chris Pollock could play a role here. When a team goes a man down it isn’t always easy to find the gaps but Cuthbert seems to have a knack for it. If the Aussie backrow land on the wrong side of the ref then he could well come into his own.
O’CONNOR v SEXTON (open play) – In here lies the greatest mystery. We have a pretty good sense of how Sexton will operate things…he won’t have the strength of Roberts at 12 but there’s still plenty of bash from his two wingers plus Croft & Heaslip. As for what the Wallabies plan to do, well your guess is as good as mine but you have to assume it has to do with getting Folau & Ioane the ball in space.
O’CONNOR v HALFPENNY (placekicking) – Halfpenny’s near-perfection from the tee could provide the biggest influence on Deans’ strategy from the tour matches preceding the test. They can’t afford to give him chances anywhere on the park, plus a try anywhere is almost as good as seven points on the board. We’re not sure JOC is kicking just yet, but I’d give him the role for this kick in Hong Kong alone. At the end of the match, having just gotten the try, nailed it despite the pressure and his being only 12.
ASHLEY-COOPER v O’DRISCOLL – May not make much of the headlines but a pivotal battle nonetheless. Two of the best tacklers in world rugby (I still can’t fathom AAC’s double tackle against the Boks). The media will talk at length about BOD’s history but the fact remains he has a key role to play here and will be of much help to Jonathan Davies inside him.
GENIA v PHILLIPS – Penalties, free-kicks, turnovers. If the ball is anywhere near Will Genia when those things happen in Australia’s favour, watch out. But we can be sure Mike Phillips will be watching out, and he’s been known to take a quick tap or two himself in his day. With these two running the show the pace could be relentless.
MOWEN/HOOPER/PALU (GILL) v CROFT/WARBURTON/HEASLIP (LYDIATE) – Here lies the rub. The Wallabies have a proud tradition in the backrow, and these Lions have already had a taste of it against the Super Rugby teams. And even without the likes of Messrs Elsom, Pocock and Smith at their best, they are still putting out a trio any Heineken Cup side would be happy to field. But the Lions have a bit of talent in this area too. Croft & Heaslip have shown the form both in helping their clubs win silverware and on this tour to earn their jerseys. Many reckon O’Brien, Tipuric and Faletau deserve inclusion ahead of Warburton and Lydiate, so here we need them to repay their coach’s faith. There is no doubt both have the ability to do that. Their battle for both the ball & the referees’ sympathy should decide this series.
Three weeks ago, I would have laughed at the bookies favouring the Lions by just the three points. As each day has passed, my confidence has been worn away…not so much by the Lions performances, but more when I appreciate the opposition they are facing and just how much it means to them to come out on top in front of their home crowd.
For once, I’m going to fall in with the professional tipsters, but a narrow victory won’t augur well for the tourists in the series overall as I reckon the home side will only get stronger. Lions by 3
TOUR MATCHES
New Zealand v France, 8:35am
Castres fly half Remi Tales gets “rewarded” for his club’s Top14 success by getting the blue 10 jumper at the end of the tour with the series lost and Dan Carter returning for the All Blacks. Luck him, eh? I expect the French to put some points on the board, but not until the final quarter. A high-scoring warmup to the Lions test this one, nothing much more to see. New Zealand by 20
Scotland v Italy, 1:15
PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING
South Africa v Samoa, 4:15pm
PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING
Sunday, June 23
PACIFIC NATIONS CUP
Tonga v Fiji, 4:10am
This is effectively a final…they lie 3rd and 2rd on the table respectively but the Canadians in first have completed their matches so the winner will overtake them. Worth getting up early to watch on Setanta live? Meh, maybe just record it.
Japan v USA, 5:10am
JUNIOR WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
PREVIEW TO PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING
Samoa v Scotland, 2pm
Australia v Ireland, 2pm
South Africa v New Zealand, 2:15pm
Fiji v USA, 5:15pm
Argentina v France, 5:15pm
FINAL : Wales v England, 5:45pm
Tuesday, June 25
LIONS TOUR
Melbourne Rebels v Lions, 10:40am
PREVIEW TO PUBLISH MONDAY EVENING
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Be sure to enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP
