Robbie Deans did not look a happy man after his side went down to a 6-9 loss against Scotland on Tuesday.
The sleeting rain and howling winds in Newcastle couldn't drown out calls by his critics for his head. The second-ranked team in the world should not, they cried, have been so ineffective in putting away twelfth-ranked Scotland, who hadn't managed a single win in this year's Six Nations tournament.
It's a little reminiscent of the backlash his opposite number, Andy Robinson, faced during his tenure as manager of England. There are some obvious differences: Deans has kept his job for over four years now, while Robinson was ousted after just over two years. Robinson wasn't given the chance to lead England to a World Cup, while Deans took Australia to New Zealand last year and kept his job after achieving a third place finish. Deans also has some silverware to his name, notably last years's Tri-Nations championship.
However, during his four years, Deans has also notched up some less welcome milestones. The Wallabies endured a 10 match winless streak against New Zealand, which was only ended with a narrow victory in Hong Kong in 2010. Scotland's win was their first in Australia in 30 years. In a similar match last year, Samoa claimed their first ever victory over the Wallabies.
Expectations are high for the national team in Australia. Supporters there feel their team should always be among the game's elite, certainly one of the favourites to win World Cups. And with good reason: they've been in the final three times and taken the title twice. More than that, though, Australians often believe they lead the world in sparkling backline play and attacking rugby. It's a view not always shared by rugby fans elsewhere but it's partly fuelled by the intense competition for audiences with other codes. Excitement on the pitch is regarded as an essential weapon in attracting sponsors and TV money.
In Newcastle, which is a rugby league heartland, you could see the influence of that. It was a tight match on the scoreboard, and the conditions were appalling throughout, yet the crowd booed when Pocock elected to go for goal, rather than kick for territory and look to work a try. Who knows if this burden of expectation led the captain to turn down some later kickable chances. Nevertheless, it was this failure to claim more than three points, with the wind advantage, which proved to be his team's undoing.
When Andy Robinson took over England, nobody really thought he would bring fireworks but he was expected to be successful. England had won a World Cup, and reached number one in the IRB rankings. His final career record in charge was only 9 wins in 22 games. In another era, Robinson might have been given longer to find his feet, but he was on borrowed time for much of his short tenure.
Quite simply, the RFU had established an economic model, and promises to sponsors, which demanded success or at least a feelgood factor. Robinson's England weren't just not winning, they were playing very poorly and the revenue figures were starting to reflect this. None of the established stars seemed to be able to control a match while the new coach had failed to blood new talent to take up the challenge. The fans and corporate benefactors were unhappy.
Deans is a similar problem for the ARU. He was never a universally popular appointment in December 2007. Some Australians cheered at the thought of stealing a top coach from under the noses of arch-rivals New Zealand, but others bemoaned the selection of a foreigner for the first time. Yes, he led the Wallabies to a third-place finish last year but there was always something slightly unsatisfactory about the performance during the tournament.
Australia looked totally unprepared for the Ireland in the group stages, then managed a quarter-final win, despite being largely outplayed by South Africa, and finally went down limply to the All Blacks in the semis. Third place was claimed through a good victory over Wales but few supporters came away thinking Australia had just missed out at being champions.
The Australian scrum continues to be a weakness when referees give it their attention. Ireland showed them up in New Zealand and Scotland finally got their reward in Newcastle when Jaco Peyper could no longer ignore what was happening in front of him. The Wallabies coaching staff has seen some turnover under Deans, just as Robinson suffered an enforced clearout on his watch, but little appears to have changed on that front.
More importantly, there are no settled combinations in the backs. Beale, O'Connor, Genia and Cooper are fine talents but, even when all are fit, it's not clear what Deans regards as his first choice line-up. This is most strikingly apparent in the midfield where any number of permutations have been tried. David Campese said after the Scotland match he thinks the Wallabies have lacked a successful 10/12/13 combination for 12 years.
Robbie Deans might be forgiven for not solving the perennial scrummaging issues, but supporters are less impressed with his perceived failure to make the most of his resources in the backs.
This Scotland result has turned up the heat on the Wallaby coach. Deans has a career winning record of 60% but he has never won a Bledisloe Cup and some supporters feel last year's Tri-Nations was a hollow victory given the decision by the Boks to field under-strength sides on the away legs. He is, however, expected to beat British and Irish sides, and here his record has worsened. Like Scotland, England have recorded back-to-back wins, and Ireland famously turned them over in their last meeting during the World Cup.
Wales are the only Home Nations side not to record a recent win over Australia. They haven't won down under against the hosts since 1969. Wallaby supporters are demanding a win.
Deans may feel that he can survive a series loss to Wales if he can go on to deliver the goods in the inaugural Rugby Championship, which starts in August. His contract currently takes him up to the end of 2013. The question for the ARU, however, will be whether they can afford to stick with their man. When the RFU gave Andy Robinson the boot, the World Cup was eleven months away. His successor, Brian Ashton, had one Six Nations tour and a few warm-up games before taking the team to the tournament. He had at least been part of the coaching set-up before that, however.
For Australia, the British and Irish Lions tour is almost exactly one year away. It's one of the premier showcases for rugby union in the country outside the World Cup, and they need a good buzz to bring in the crowds and garner much-needed media coverage. It's an important way to fill the union coffers. Should the Wallabies fall to Wales - which is by no means a probability even after the Scotland result - the ARU will need to decide whether Deans should be given a chance at redemption in the Southern Hemisphere tournament, or whether a new face should be brought in urgently to give them time with the team to start pulling it into shape for 2013.
There are some other international fixtures on the calendar for 2012. Australia are pencilled in to face France, England and Wales in the autumn. If the ARU is thinking of switching horses, though, that surely won't be enough time to bed in a new coach. They would have to consider offering the position to a successor while there were still matches to build a rapport with the players. Nick Mallett is currently free and Wayne Smith might consider taking a role nearer to home. Ewen McKenzie is a popular local favourite and, especially if the Queensland Reds don't make the Super Rugby play-offs, he could also be quickly available.
The ARU's dearest hope must be that Deans can muster his troops to see off the Welsh challenge and put off the moment of reckoning. There's suddenly a lot more at stake at the weekend.
@lions_in_oz xx is based in Tokyo, where he spends most of his time expounding on the merits of the Northern Hemisphere game to doubting Kiwis, Aussies and Saffers. He once played openside flanker against a team featuring a young Stuart Barnes at flyhalf, and never managed to lay a hand on him all game.
© JL Pagano 2012
