The pressure increases by the day on the Irish coaching staff, writes Ryan Cullen
Prior to the tournament I outlined why the team selection for the Wales game was one of the most important in Declan Kidney’s Ireland reign. Little did we know at that stage that just three weeks later he would face an even greater dilemma.
Ireland, left reeling after the sheer physicality of their encounter with England, is down to the bare bones in some areas - with Gordon D’Arcy’s foot injury providing the most problematic of Kidney’s selection headaches. How Ireland doesn’t have a single back up 12 waiting in the wings is quite baffling. There is certainly no shortage of centre talent on the island. Both Luke Marshall and Darren Cave of Ulster are in the squad for Sunday’s visit to Murrayfield. They are vying for a place with Keith Earls and Fergus McFadden and Luke Fitzgerald, who may be seen as a viable centre option given his experience of international rugby even though that was gained on the wing.
This list of names certainly doesn’t represent a dearth of quality understudies. Yet we are fretting over who will replace D’Arcy. The blame for this surely must lie squarely at Declan Kidney’s door. His refusal to blood youngsters in full internationals has led to the problems we are seeing this week. Outings for the Wolfhounds and against lesser nations doesn’t reveal anything that Kidney couldn’t have already gleaned from provincial performances in the Heineken Cup which represents a greater test of a player than these games. Nobody is arguing he should have abandoned D’Arcy, but greater selection intelligence would have enriched the pool of players now available to Kidney.
If I were in Kidney’s shoes I would pick Darren Cave. A strong defender and excellent reader of the game with good hands, he has performed well for 18 months with scant recognition. Of course he is naturally a 13 not a 12 and he may not be the answer, but for me his greater solidity would give him the edge over Earls and McFadden, widely mooted contenders. Whilst both Earls and McFadden have had good days in a green shirt, not many of those have come at centre and I worry they are simply too lightweight to be international centres. Cave’s Ulster teammate Marshall is the most natural 12 in the squad but isn’t quite at the stage of his career where he should be started when visiting Murrayfield in order to keep any championship hopes alive. I don’t expect my opinion to reflect reality mind you.
Elsewhere Iain Henderson seems likely to replace Mike McCarthy in the second row after the Connacht man was ruled out by injury. After his strong performance for the Wolfhounds against the Saxons, Devin Toner may feel unfairly overlooked if this plays out however given Henderson’s performance for Ulster on Friday night, he is clearly a man in form. McCarthy may even find Henderson a difficult man to displace if he keeps progressing at his current rate. Kidney also seems to have decided that Paddy Jackson is Ireland’s third choice fly half after the Ulsterman’s solid performance against Zebre. His place kicking must still be a worry though – as must an early injury to O’Gara.
Some sections of the media, particularly in Belfast and the surrounding areas, have been talking up Tom Court’s chances of displacing Dave Kilcoyne as the primary backup to Cian Healy and grabbing the number one shirt this week. There would be more than a few raised eyebrows if these partisan wishes materialised. Not because Court isn’t good enough, he is considerably more proven than Kilcoyne, but because Kidney has already made his preference clear. The only other major decision Kidney faces is who will replace Zebo. This of course will be impacted by who Kidney selects at centre. I suggest that it will be Keith Earls who slots in beside O’Driscoll and Fitzgerald will fill the wing berth. If Earls isn’t selected in the centre though, I would be surprised not to see him on the wing.
That leaves Ireland with a 15 of Kilcoyne, Best, Ross, Ryan, Henderson, O’Mahony, O’Brien, Heaslip, Murray, O’Gara, Gilroy, Earls, O’Driscoll, Fitzgerald & Kearney. This certainly represents a team that should defeat the current Scotland side, regardless of their Italian success. Ireland has a more streetwise pack, a stronger set of half backs, although Laidlaw has impressed for Scotland, and greater variety in their game. At the breakdown Scotland tend to favour putting as few men in as possible, particularly in defence, allowing the rest of the team to fan across the pitch and leave fewer gaps, theoretically. Despite England edging the breakdown in Dublin, it would be a surprise if Scotland were able to match the Irish intensity in this area. The set piece should also be an area Ireland aim to attack. If the team that matched England turns up it should be at least a good match for Scotland, particularly given Euan Murray will vacate the tighthead position on Sunday.
Whilst everything points to an Irish victory on Sunday, it would be churlish to dismiss Scotland. In Visser, Hogg and Maitland they have an exceptionally strong back three which has already demonstrated its ability to get tries on the board. Scotland’s pack is a large unit and with Jim Hamilton and Richie Grey in the second row to work alongside Harley, Brown and Beattie in the back row, there is plenty of carrying potential. The backline has plenty of size to it, half backs aside, and certainly won’t be found wanting when they need to front up. We must bear in mind that great sporting intangible, confidence, when looking ahead to this weekend. Ireland travel to Edinburgh on the back of one of their most deflating defeats for some time whilst Scotland host Declan Kidney’s men after one of their best victories in the past decade. It all adds up to a very clear message for Irish players and fans – underestimate Scotland at your peril.
In Rome it would major surprise if the Wales team which defeated France failed against the Italians. Whilst we know Italy is capable of strong performances at home and they have consistently caused Wales problems in the Six Nations era, it would be a shock if Wales are vanquished by Sergio Parisse’s men. For Italy to win they need their half backs to put in the type of performance we saw when France visited – playing at the highest level they are capable of for the full 80 minutes. Sadly for Italy, Orquera and Botes are unlikely to produce that level regularly, if ever again. Wales will hope to build on the performance in Paris and will be expecting to dispatch the Italian challenge with a degree of ease.
In a match which sees the only Grandslam contenders resume their campaign at home, it may come as a surprise that to many observers the performance of the visitors will be of more interest than England’s. We found out most of what we needed to know about England in the first two rounds where they demonstrated an ability to play both hard, grinding rugby and to throw the ball around.
France on the other hand has been abject and it’s hard to believe St Andre won’t shuffle his pack for the trip to Twickenham. With Vincent Clerc back in the squad and expected to feature on the wing, Wesley Fofana should move to his preferred 13 position. If St Andre makes the sensible decision and plays either Machenaud/Parra or Parra/Trinh Duc, those half backs with Fall, Mermoz, Fofana, Clerc and Huget around them pose a considerably greater threat than the back line which took to the field in the first two rounds. France’s enormous pack should certainly hold its own up front.
For England the selection at centre continues to prove the most intriguing with all three options, Twelvetrees, Tuilagi and Barrett, in good form. Lancaster is proving to be a pragmatic operator who will choose a team to win a match rather than bowing to reputation. Invariably, whoever he chooses, at centre and elsewhere, he is likely to be backed up on the field – exemplifying the benefits Lancaster is now reaping from giving youth its head in last year’s competition and the trip to South Africa. He has now built a strong squad that he knows can handle international rugby. There is a lesson there for his counterpart on the other side of the Irish Sea.
My name is Ryan Cullen and I am a 25 year old Ulster season ticket holder. I was introduced to the game around 15 years ago and have loved it ever since. I have an interest in pretty much all sports though so don’t be surprised to see a few football (Liverpool), Golfing and Racing interests (to name but a few) thrown in from time to time.
EDITOR’S NOTE – This was written before Brendan Fanning leaked the Irish matchday 23 late Tuesday evening
