Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
Welcome to my new weekly series, The Pagano Preview, where I'll look ahead to the upcoming weekend's rugby action and pick out the matches that catch my eye.
I've been doing this rugby blogging thing for quite a while now but I'll never get tired of registering my dislike for weekends like this one which has domestic matches as well as Six Nations ones. The test series should take pride of place and while I accept the argument about “giving emerging talent the chance to play top level rugby”, I still don't think these are the weekends to do it.
Still, as long as the calendar is structured this way we must plough ahead and examine what is being put before us.
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Saturday February 9
Stuart Mangan Memorial Trophy
Ireland Legends v England Legends, Donnybrook, 19:30
Follow this link for more info on this great traditional charity event and try to make it if you can!
Women's Six Nations
Ireland v England, Ashbourne RFC, 2pm [streaming live on IRFU website]
With all the talk of the men's success in Cardiff we must not forget their female counterparts also did us proud in Wales last weekend, pinching a 12-10 win with tries from Sophie Spence and Gillian Bourke.
The English women are perennial favourites in this competition but this year they are keeping out a vast amount of their regular starters with future competitions in mind, so hopefully Irish captain Fiona Coughlan & co can take full advantage.
Six Nations Championship
Scotland v Italy, 14:30 [RTE2/BBC]
I'm telling you, the Italians can't buy a break in this competition. Two years ago they beat France for the first time but with results elsewhere they still wound up with the wooden spoon.
This time around they repeat the famous victory but then the fixture schedule lumbers them with a six-day turnaround for their quest to open the tournament with two wins out of two for the first time ever.
Meanwhile, whatever about that result in Rome, Scott Johnson will certainly be targetting this fixture as his best chance to change the word “interim” in his title to “permanent”. And although England out-classed them over 80 minutes last week, if they can cut out some silly mistakes I feel they could send the Murrayfield crowd home happy after this one.
No doubt Parisse & co will have something to say about that but i can't help feeling the Scots back three of Hogg Visser & Maitland is one that will make some headlines and this could be just the time for them to do it. Scotland by 10.
France v Wales, 17:00 [RTE2/BBC]
The only time you'd ever expect these two meeting each other when both are yet to record a win is in round one. Yet this meeting in Paris is guaranteed to end the Championship hopes of at least one of these recent Grand Slam title winners.
Of course there's rarely a GOOD time to visit the French capital, but Rob Howley certainly won't be relishing this one. Responsibility for the poor Welsh record since their success this time last year has mostly landed at his door and he will be certainly hoping his side plays more like last week's second half than they do the first.
I won't sit on the fence re: Sam Warburton's “injury”...I believe he has been dropped, and Justic Tipuric now has the perfect chance to show he is not only a contender for this red 7 jersey but also the other one with HSBC on it.
Still I'm not sure that will be enough against a French side in search of their mojo. Can't believe St Andre is keeping Parra on the bench, though Machenaud is certainly no slouch. Plus his introduction of Bastareaud will certainly present Messrs Roberts & Davies with a different challenge to Darce & Drico last week!
I can only see a home win here. France by 12.
Six Nations B Championship
Even though there's feck-all coverage anywhere about this competition, I'll be doing my best to follow it, since I guess you could call me something of a “tier 2 sympathiser”.
These six countries will play each other home and away between this year and early 2014 and the top 2 qualify for RWC2015. The team finishing second will go into Ireland's pool while the 3rd placed team can also qualify via the playoffs.
Big clash this weekend would seem to be Romania v Russia as both won their opening matches in round one.
Georgia v Portugal
Romania v Russia
Belgium v Spain
Pro12
Munster v Edinburgh, Musgrave Park, 19:45 [TG4]
No Murray, Ryan, ROG, Zebo, O'Mahony, Earls, Laulala, Downey....and don't even start me on the “wisdom” of letting Stringer go across the pond for the third time...yet still this is one hell of a Munster side on paper.
Just the back row alone of Stander, Dougall & Coughlan with O'Donnell on the bench is enough to make me think Rob Penney's side should take this one handy, but when you factor the ever-improving Ian Keatley at out-half and his own heir apparent JJ Hanrahan outside him, this could well be over before half-time.
And rest assured this isn't a case of a Leinster fan being too generous towards Munster either. I genuinely believe the Penney revolution will eventually click down there and also that Keatley is the man to do it.
Plus of course there is the fact that Edinburgh are having a season they'd rather forget, although in Piers Francis they were able to look good against Leinster just after the new year, plus they have a scrapper or two in Jacobsen & Gilchrist on the bench.
But the result here can only go one way from where I'm standing. Yes, I know this means I'm tipping four wins out of four from the Irish provinces but I really think it will happen. Munster by 20.
Premiership
Northampton v Gloucester, 12:30 [SKY SPORTS]
Bath v Worcester, 14:15
Leicester v London Welsh, 15:00
London Irish v Saracens, 15:00
Harlequins v London Wasps, 20:00 [ESPN]
Top14
Agen v Toulouse, 14:00
Bayonne v Perpignan, 14:00
Bordeaux v Toulon, 14:00
Castres v Stade Francais, 14:00
Mont-de-Marsan v Grenoble, 14:00
Bernard Jackman’s French odyssey has had something of dream start…with just ten rounds left of the Top14 season, his Grenoble side still lie in a playoff position, yet with Racing Metro turning over Clermont last night they’ll need the win today to keep a decent gap between them. They will certainly fancy their chances against Mont-de-Marsan, who sadly have more hyphens to their name than wins this season. Ironically their one victory was away to Racing.
Montpellier v Biarritz, 19:40
Sunday, February 10
Six Nations
Ireland v England, 15:00 [RTE2]
If ever there was a weekend when the best was saved till last this has to be it!
Two years ago Martin Johnson’s England came gallivanting into Dublin on the crest of an Ashton swallow dive and a Nike Grand Slam ad. We all know what happened that day, and we all know about the car crash that was their subsequent World Cup campaign.
Nowadays the only ads you could imagine Stuart Lancaster’s England doing are ones with Andrex puppies. Given what went before him, you have to give him & the RFU credit for this about face in the public persona of the English team.
But let’s look at some facts shall we. England won 4 out of 5 last year in Lancaster’s first crack at the Six Nations. Tack on to that their last two performances at headquarters and I reckon the honeymoon period is well and truly over. No more can we talk about “transition” and “bedding in”. England have been World Champions in the past so whatever their spin, their expectations need to be high and if they and their media won’t point that out, then we should.
They most definitely go into this match as favourites in my book.
Declan Kidney has gone for an identical match-day 23 to that which triumphed in Cardiff. More often than not, that’s the action of a successful side. But in our case it tells a much different story.
If I could somehow know for certain that our starting XV would last the entire match the way Ulster did in their Heineken Cup quarterfinal at Thomond Park last season, then I’d say we’d probably win.
But not only do I have doubts about Mike Ross and Gordon D’Arcy lasting the entire match, even after today’s team announcement I’m not 100% certain the latter is definitely going to start. And we are so poor with cover for those two key positions that even the most optimistic fan would need to have trepidations.
Particularly when you look at the English subs. I can’t believe Dylan Hartley is fit and not starting. When they do damage in the scrum, invariably he has something to do with it, be it legal or not. Then there’s Manu. And Courtney Lawes. When England goes to their bench, Stuart Lancaster need just proclaim : “release the hounds!”
Now remember…I’m not saying for a minute we don’t have a chance. It’s just I have many fears. And the 3 & 12 positions aren’t the only ones.
I fear for the breakdown, and in particular Jamie Heaslip’s ability to beat his opposing captain to winning over the ear of Jerome Garces. And if this battle is lost by Ireland, then we could see a final quarter where we’re giving away penalty after penalty with yellow cards thrown in the very same (if not worse) than they were against Wales.
When it comes to scoring points, we have all the ability in the world. And not only to I expect the BODs and the Zebos to contribute here, expect some serious output from Rob Kearney as well.
But our reliance on our defence is contingent of the interpretation of the referee – also the English should have a plan to negate our “choke tackle” unlike Rob Howley & his coaching staff who seemed to pretend it wasn’t there.
That is why I can’t help feeling this match will be tight, and that is why I can’t help feeling Owen Farrell will have a late chance to win the game with a placekick. Sorry, I’m going for England by 2. Please, please make me be wrong!
Pro12
Zebre v Glasgow, 14:05 [BBC ALBA]
I’ll keep tipping the Italians to lose until they break their duck. Still though, the Warriors are well on course for a top-four finish and will be aiming for a bonus point even without their internationals. Glasgow by 12.
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That was a lot for me to get stuck into for my first Pagano Preview! With the Six Nations off next week, there's a slightly lighter load, see you then.
Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are! JLP
