Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
Busy, busy weekend ahead! No time for a pre-amble, let's get to it...
Saturday, February 23
RBS Six Nations
Italy v Wales, Stadio Olimpico, 2:30pm
Maybe what Sergio Parisse said to the ref WAS deserving of a red card and a subsequent ban. But if the Six Nations is meant to be the pinnacle of European rugby, then the best players should be allowed to partake, so my argument is that he shouldn't have been lining out for Stade Francais in the first place.
But now Italy have to complete their campaign without their inspirational skipper, and it is a void I fear cannot be filled. After their capitulation in Murrayfield I have a funny feeling that for the second time in three years they will both defeat France AND pick up the dreaded kitchen implement.
And all this is without the imminent visit of a Welsh side who have pulled themselves together and then some after that first half against Ireland. Although their Paris match was an awful contest to watch for the neutral, there were some stand-out displays, not least by Ryan Jones, that lead me to believe this will be a one-sided contest.
If the Welsh win by a decent margin as I believe they will, it will put added pressure on Ireland to do more than merely squeak by in Murrayfield. Wales by 21.
England v France, Twickenham, 5pm
If my assertion in the leadup to Ireland v England two weeks ago was that Stuart Lancaster's men should be considered favourites, then it goes doubly so now.
Seeing how they have two wins in the bank while the French have yet to get one in this year's competition, even though some players have tried to talk up the visitors during the week, there is absolutely no way of spinning this match to give England the the underdog tag.
Sure, Phillipe St Andre is finally putting out a side close to one we would have expected going into the tournament – Parra is rightly at 9, Fofana is rightly at 12 and Michalak for is inability to produce is rightly on the bench. Add try machine Vincent Clerc to that equation and you have a side that can certainly break their Twickenham jinx if they come together on the day.
But this is an England side that is already coming together, and while the style of rugby is anything but pretty, everyone knows what their job is and they have been getting it done well. Plus, as well as Billy Twelvetrees may have done to date, we get to see a battle of powerful 13s worth waiting for. Manu v Mathieu? What a prospect!
I expect the French to find some answers to the stubborn English defence, but not enough to come out on top. England by 8.
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Leinster v Scarlets, RDS, 7:45pm
Couldn’t preview this match without waiting for the result in Friday’s Glasgow v Ulster contest…the bonus-point win for the Warriors has opened up a significant seven point gap between them in 2nd and us in 3rd, one small consolation being that both sides have still to come to the RDS this season, but nevertheless we definitely need a win tonight to stay within touching distance.
Since the turn of the year Leinster have adopted a “no-nonsense” approach to all their matches which has seen them spurn early kickable penalties for kicks for a lineout/maul play in the corners which has been for the most part extremely successful. I can’t see them using this ploy for the remainder of the season, however, and this is the first fixture where it may just come off the table.
Ian Madigan’s call-up to the Irish squad early in the week has left Joe Schmidt to prefer Noel Reid as the starting 10 against a Scarlet side which certainly won’t be here to make up the numbers tonight. The Clontarf youngster has certainly improved since his struggles in last years BandI Cup semifinal, but he finds himself tonight in a position very similar to that of Paddy Jackson in that the spotlight will be on him to produce the goods.
So it will be very interesting to see how we approach the contest. The visitors have Aaron Shingler back from the national camp and young fly half Owen Williams’ confidence will be sky high after out-gunning Ronan O’Gara last weekend.
Since a try bonus would be very handy to us, I wouldn’t mind seeing us kick for the corners in the first quarter but if it doesn’t produce results right away, we need to be able to change quickly to a more conservative “cup-final” approach and get everything we can out of home advantage to secure the win. This mid-game shift is something we struggled with before Christmas.
Joe Schmidt has shuffled the deck in certain positions – with Luke on the bench for Ireland Dave Kearney returns to full-back while the wings are manned by Carr & Conway, both bound for other provinces next season. The centre pairing however is retained from last Saturday’s Treviso trouncing – I thought Goodman & O’Malley performed extremely well then and shouldn’t change a thing about what they do tonight.
There are also many changes in the pack…Toner’s test call-up means skipper Leo Cullen starts alongside the impressive prospect that is Ben Marshall, with another one on the bench in Mark Flanagan. Last week’s hat-trick hero Dominic Ryan may shift from open-side to blind to allow Shane Jennings to start but I still expect him to be there or thereabouts should there be any 5m lineouts.
In the front row Aaron Dundon has done well for Leinster this season when needed but with the “iffy” Michael Bent alongside him this could be an area where the Scarlets will target us so early scrums will play their part.
I wouldn’t judge this match with last January’s Heineken Cup encounter in mind…the Scarlets always give us a tough league battle in Dublin and while I reckon we will come out on top, we may need the skill sets of Messrs Madigan & McFadden off the bench to do it. Leinster by 5.
Women’s Six Nations
Scotland v Ireland, Lasswade, 2pm
I’m sure the IRFU have a good reason why they can only stream highlights of this match…it probably has something to do with it being an away match and the SRU fearing a hiding given what England did to them and what Ireland did to England!
So all we can do from here is check our twitter feeds where hopefully there will be updates because there is an historic Triple Crown on the line for coach Philip Doyle, skipper Fiona Coughlan and all the girls so here’s wishing them all the best!
Ulster Bank League Division 1A
Clontarf v Young Munster, 2:30pm
Cork Constitution v Lansdowne, 2:30pm
Shannon v Old Belvedere, 2:30pm
St Mary's College v Dolphin, 2:30pm
Given Lansdowne's 10-point lead at the top of Division 1A, this seems to be the key battle in the top division...lying 4 & 3 points ahead of 9th-placed UL Bohs respectively, these two will need the points to increase the gap. The champions haven't had the most succesful time in defence of their title but I reckon they'll make home advantage count here. Mary's by 7.
Aviva Premiership
Exeter Chiefs v London Welsh, 3pm
Northampton v Bath, 3pm
Leicester v Saracens, 8pm
Super Rugby
Hurricanes v Blues, 6:35am
Reds v Waratahs, 8:40am
Cheetahs v Sharks, 3:05pm
Southern Kings v Western Force, 5:10pm
Top14
Agen v Mont-de-Marsan, 2pm
Biarritz v Racing Metro, 2pm
Grenoble v Clermont, 2pm
Grenoble's scores have definitely been ones to look out for given Bernard Jackman's involvement and haven't they done well, still in the playoff places. Although they are the home side here, it IS Clermont that they face so I'm going for them to win and it will count as my Upset of the Week. Grenoble by 7.
Montpellier v Bordeaux, 2pm
Toulouse v Bayonne, 2pm
Perpignan v Stade Francais, 7:40pm
Sunday, February 24
RBS Six Nations
Scotland v Ireland, Murrayfield, 2pm
I am basing my preview for this match mostly on Declan Kidney's assertion that the Six Nations Championship is still winnable for Ireland.
And for all that has been said since the England match about the importance of his selections to replace the injured players, that's nothing compared to the way they actually approach the game.
I spent a good few column inches during the week putting forward the virtues of selecting Ian Madigan, so that point has been made. Does that mean I don't believe Ireland can win with Paddy Jackson at 10? Absolutely not. This matchday 23 is certainly capable of getting a result in Murrayfield, they just need to go out and play like it.
My only concern about Paddy will be his decision-making. If I were the Scots I'd put him under the maximum amount of pressure, and no doubt more than once he'll have the likes of Rob Harley bearing down on him when he gets the ball.
Early on, I expect us to get the most out of our own back three running hard lines on the shoulder of Murray & Jackson...but if this doesn't bear fruit, we will need another option, and if that option turns out to be the “old-reliable” of high kicking, or worse still if there is no option at all and we keep running the same plays as we did against England, then it will be a long afternoon.
Defensively, once we don't invite Scotland's back three from deep, I have every faith in our system. Jackson & Marshall, despite their youth, are more than adequate tackling replacements for Sexton & D'Arcy, and I very much doubt the home side will see the Murrayfield pitch open up as freely as it did when the Italians were in town.
So given all of the above, I think we can come out on top. Will it be by enough to stay in the race for first place though? That will be down to leadership.
There are many who love to take shots at Jamie Heaslip and I say let them. I still believe he can be a fine captain of this team, and there are plenty more like me, not all of us Leinster fans either.
All that remains is for the man himself to believe it. There's nothing we can say, no magic combination of words that can be put in a post – leadership is something that just happens. Since it is yet to really happen for Jamie, my prediction will stand as it is...but the more he grows into his role while playing the game to his own standards, the more that margin will be. Ireland by 5.
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Treviso v Munster, Stadio di Monigo, 2pm
Leinster & Munster swap opponents from last weekend to this, but although Treviso lost by seven converted tries in Dublin you can be sure they will be targeting this one for a win.
And despite the wide margin last weekend I have to say they played some pretty impressive off-loading rugby at times so with a home crowd behind them and the likes of tricky full-back Brendan Williams back in their lineup, Munster will have their work cut out to avoid falling even further behind the Pro12’s top four.
With all the talk about O’Gara, Jackson and Madigan during the week I reckon poor Ian Keatley might be feeling a little unappreciated. He has taken his chances well in the most part for Munster this season and gets another one tonight in Italy. He certainly has a more experienced backline with him than ROG had in Llanelli…Downey & Laulala return to the 12 & 13 positions.
Mike Sherry leads out the side yet again and we can expect Tommy O’Donnell and James Coughlan to dominate the backrow battle with CJ Stander ready to come on if required.
If it were down to me, I’d go for a win at all costs here if I were Rob Penney. There are absolutely no guarantees in their upcoming Heineken Cup quarterfinal visit to Harlequins and if they get too far away from the Pro12 playoff positions now, their season could be effectively over in early April for the first time since…ever?
And by “all costs” I mean stick a pin in the whole “new breed of expansive game” for a while, but I have a feeling he is more interested in the “big picture” and he may very well be right. I still think his side has enough to come away with the spoils here, though. Munster by 9.
Zebre v NG Dragons, 2:05pm
After the Dragons shipped 60 at home last week, Zebre will never get a better chance at a maiden victory. Unluckily for them, my desire not to jinx Connacht doesn't transfer to them! Zebre by 7.
Aviva Premiership
London Irish v London Wasps, 12:05pm
British & Irish Cup
Nottingham v Llandovery, 2:15pm
With Bristol’s hammering of Cardiff on Friday evening, the quarter-final picture has finally become (kind of) simple for the Irish sides left in the British & Irish Cup. If this match finishes in a draw or any kind of win for Nottingham, Leinster A go to Bristol while Munster A go to the Cornish Pirates. A win for Llandovery means Leinster A go to Newcastle while Munster A go to Bristol.
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Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are! JLP
