With eight rounds left, six teams in contention & four playoff slots available, the Pro12 is nicely poised…
The Six Nations may be what everyone is talking about in the rugby world right now, but the Pro12 keeps going at the same time and last weekend saw some significant happenings in the race to the 2012/13 title.
Ulster’s defeat at home to the reigning champion Ospreys together with all five clubs from 2nd to 6th all winning not only closed the gap on first place to just seven points, but also created a gap of a whopping thirteen points between 6th and 7th that will not be closed in all probability.
So that leaves the top six clubs to duke it out for the four play-off slots – what say we have a look at their remaining schedule and assess their chances?
In the table below I have put the top six clubs with their records after 14 rounds in the order in which they count in the Pro12. If teams are level on points, then you go by number of wins. If level then, it goes to points difference, then tries scored. Next in the table you see their remaining matches in rounds 15-22 of the regular season, with matches highlighted in yellow being ones against another top-six team.
| TEAM | PTS | W | PD | T | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| ULS | 53 | 12 | 148 | 39 | ZEB - H | GLA - A | TRE - H | EDI - A | LEI - A | NGD - H | CON - A | CAR - H |
| GLA | 46 | 10 | 104 | 35 | DRA - A | ULS - H | CAR - H | LEI - A | MUN - H | SCA - A | OSP - H | CON - A |
| LEI | 44 | 10 | 86 | 38 | TRE - H | SCA - H | NGD - A | GLA - H | ULS - H | MUN – A | ZEB - A | OSP - H |
| OSP | 43 | 10 | 95 | 26 | CON - A | EDI - H | MUN - A | NGD - H | CAR - A | TRE - H | GLA - A | LEI - A |
| SCA | 42 | 9 | 9 | 28 | MUN - H | LEI - A | EDI - H | ZEB - A | NGD - A | GLA - H | CAR - H | TRE - H |
| MUN | 41 | 9 | 100 | 28 | SCA - A | TRE - A | OSP - H | CON - H | GLA - A | LEI - H | NGD - A | ZEB - A |
ULSTER
They may have had a rare Ravenhill reversal last Friday, but looking at their schedule it would take a Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle-type collapse to prevent them from finishing first. They have a couple of tricky trips to Glasgow & Dublin but their remaining home matches alone should yield enough points for them. If I were Mark Anscombe I would be planning the trip to play Saracens right now and nothing else.
GLASGOW
The yin to Edinburgh’s yang in Scottish pro rugby this season, their bonus point win at Zebre on Sunday puts them right in charge of their own destiny. Of the top six, they and Leinster are the only ones still to face all of the other five. Their chances of success will much depend on whether Gregor Townsend & his coaching staff has them viewing that as a daunting challenge or a promising opportunity.
LEINSTER
Last Friday’s win in Cardiff was huge for Joe Schmidt’s men, as they now have a run of four of their next five matches at home. Even with the carrot of the Amlin final being at the RDS I’d be very surprised if the Pro12 title wasn’t their priority, and if Ulster’s lead at the top is unassailable you can be sure Leinster will be pushing the Warriors all the way for second place on the table and the home semifinal that goes with it.
OSPREYS
Never, ever, EVER rule out the four-time champion Ospreys. Leinster, Munster and most recently Ulster have gotten tastes of that in the last while, and they roll into Galway this weekend looking for yet another victory on Irish soil. They have the trickiest final two rounds, both away to clubs currently above them, so they will certainly be looking to maximise their points haul now rather than wait until later.
SCARLETS
Given they started the season with a thrashing of Leinster, it’s a surprise to see their points difference right now so far behind the teams around them, and this together with a crowded treatment room could prove their undoing. Their match against Munster this weekend is pretty much a cup-final.
MUNSTER
Even though they are the away team in Llanelli this Saturday, I’m not so sure defeat would be as serious for them as it would be the Scarlets. They could well make ground back against both the Ospreys and Leinster at home, while although their final two matches are away they shouldn’t be too bothered by the Dragons and Zebre.
***
If I were a betting man I’d say the four clubs currently at the top would be the ones to reach the semifinals in May, though I couldn’t possibly call exactly how positions 2 through 4 will look. Still, as you can see, there are a whole lot of twists and turns left in this season’s Pro12 tale. You certainly can’t take any clash against the bottom six clubs as bankers either, even Zebre, who you have to feel are going to break their winless streak at some stage. JLP
