After a bleak Six Nations, Ryan Cullen assesses the touring chances of Ireland’s hopefuls…
At the turn of the year it seemed Ireland was going to play a significant role in this summer’s tour to Australia. Whilst the provinces weren’t all going wonderfully well in the Heineken Cup, we were still imbued with the good feeling generated by the victory over Argentina and the solidification of our position in the second tier of rugby nations.
Anybody with a passing interest in rugby knows that since then things have been fairly bleak for Irish fans. The optimism of the autumn has been replaced by the depression of spring and it looks all but certain we will have significantly reduced presence on the plane down under this summer. Below is a discussion of our definitelys, our likelys and our unlikelys.
Loosehead – Cian Healy – likely
Loosehead prop is a position of relative strength for Ireland as it is one of the few that we can point to and say we have three reasonable choices. That Cian Healy has made this position his own, therefore, outlines the quality of Leinsterman. One of Ireland’s premier ball carriers and a much improved performer at scrum time, it would be a surprise if Healy is not on the plane to Australia. Indeed I would suggest that for many Healy would be a definite but two things hold me back from being that strong at this stage. Firstly, discipline. Healy’s petulant stamp against England didn’t show him in the best light and Warren Gatland (WG) will have noted his combustibility under pressure. The second is competition. Gethin Jenkins’ terrific performance against England at the weekend showed what regular rugby can do for him and he is surely a certainty. Ryan Grant has also performed exceptionally well for Scotland, whilst Joe Marler’s round the park skills would be more important against a weaker Australian scrum. There are also the likes of Mako Vunipola, Paul James and Andrew Sheridan who will come into WGs thinking. The latter in particular will have serious claims for his scrummaging alone. Gun to my head I say he goes – but there are too many other potential candidates for me to be saying he’s a definite at this stage – even if I think he is a likely starter if he does go.
Hooker – Rory Best – definite
If I had been writing this piece several weeks ago I would probably have been saying Rory Best was a definite for the test team let alone the squad. Whilst the Ulsterman has had a few wobbles at the lineout over the years, and a few times throughout the championship, he is a strong scrummager, a usually accurate lineout thrower and a tireless workhorse who is as good over the ball at the ruck as many number 7s. The impact of Richard Hibbard in Wales’ march to the championship leads me to question this though. I would still have Best as the starter but he will have to prove to Gatland that he is his man whilst touring unless he can help lead Ulster to at least another Heineken Cup final. Some Leinster fans will be suggesting Richard Strauss should be considered and perhaps justifiably so. Leinster’s failure to make the Heineken Cup QFs and his minimal exposure to international rugby mean his chances are surely very small and would only be likely to go if several others were injured.
Tighthead – Mike Ross – unlikely
Mike Ross is one of Ireland’s most important players. Without him the team would likely be chewed up against almost any other international scrum. The problem for Ross is that he operates in one of the most competitive Lions positions. Adam Jones is a stone cold certainty after his demolition of England’s scrum at the weekend, Euan Murray has toured previously and has had a strong championship for Scotland around the field as well as in the scrum, while Dan Cole is probably a similar level scrummager as Ross and probably does more round the field. Ross’s omission is not really a reflection on his weakness, rather an indication of the quality of tighthead props available to WG.
Second Row – Paul O’Connell – likely – Donnacha Ryan – unlikely
The last Lions captain returned to action over the past week and looks likely to be involved in the final few months of Munster’s season, injury permitting. Given his experience, his proven quality and his desire to win I would be surprised if the Munsterman was omitted from the squad if he returns to some level of form in the next couple of months. O’Connell’s return probably won’t do Donnacha Ryan’s chances of touring any favours either. Ryan had a good championship but will be cursing those lineout wobbles which may have seen his chances disappear. Whilst there is little doubt that Ryan would do the jersey proud if he toured this summer, the emergence of Joe Launchbury, the likelihood that Richie Gray will be fit and the strong performances of Alun Wyn Jones and Ian Evans for Wales mean it is unlikely Ryan will tour as well as O’Connell. If O’Connell can’t tour though, it would surely be a shootout between Ryan and Geoff Parling for the remaining berth.
Blindside flanker – Peter O’Mahony – unlikely
A month ago I believed I would be writing Stephen Ferris – definite in this position but sadly for the Ulsterman, another injury has put paid to his chances of touring for the second time. In his place Peter O’Mahony has performed well. An improved ball carrier, a genuine lineout option and an excellent defender, O’Mahony’s chances remind me a lot of Donnacha Ryan’s – unlikely to go but unlucky not to. Given Gatland is likely to choose a blend of backrowers rather than a couple of 6s, 7s and 8s, it is likely O’Mahony will miss out due to the sheer strength of the position. Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton, Sean O’Brien, Tom Wood and Chris Robshaw look certainties to travel whilst Kelly Brown, Tom Croft and Ryan Jones also have strong claims. A few injuries would place O’Mahony right there I feel but it probably would take that for me to see him getting in.
Openside flanker – Sean O’Brien – definite
As outlined above, the backrow is probably the most competitive area of the team, and that is with Stephen Ferris and Dan Lydiate missing already. I think anybody who knows anything about Irish rugby knows what Sean O’Brien brings to a team when he plays, so I won’t go into that here. What makes him a definite for me though, is his adaptability. O’Brien is one of the few backrowers in the UK or Ireland who can genuinely play anywhere along the backrow. Although predominantly a 7 these days, O’Brien has of course spent much time in the 6 jersey and put in a number of respectable shifts at number 8. For this reason alone he is a nigh on guaranteed traveller, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him filling a test shirt either.
Number eight – Jamie Heaslip – unlikely
It is probably fair to say that on the Lions tour to South Africa four years ago we saw the best of Jamie Heaslip. It is also probably fair to say that it is the only time we have in that period of time. The Leinsterman has undoubted quality but he simply isn’t showing it enough in a green shirt these days. Heaslip’s reputation was built on his ability to beat defenders and gain go forward ball in the tightest of spaces. Now that he seems increasingly incapable of doing this it is hard to see how his inclusion is justified at this stage. With Toby Faletau a certainty to travel, Ben Morgan with fitness proven surely not far behind that and Johnnie Beattie having a much more impressive championship than the Ireland captain, why would WG go with Heaslip? Well Heaslip is obviously a proven performer at Lions level, seems to be a good traveller and may perform better without the burden of captaincy. Without a storming end to the season for Leinster though, all of this is likely to be for none.
Scrum half – Conor Murray – unlikely
We may look back in a few years’ time and point to this championship as the point at which Conor Murray matured as an international scrum half and became the quality player we all know he can be. Certainly Murray performed much more consistently in this championship than we have seen for Ireland before. I still can’t escape the feeling though, that the Munsterman is a bit of a Mike Phillips-lite number 9. I don’t really see why you would choose Murray over the Welsh scrum half. Then I look at the other possibilities – Ben Youngs brings more zip to the game and has had a strong championship in a better team whilst Greg Laidlaw is capable of covering both half back positions and is a very accurate place kicker. Realistically Murray is in competition with the latter and Danny Care and whilst Murray is certainly capable of travelling on current form, he would need to have a storming end to the season.
Fly Half – Jonathan Sexton – definite
Not much to say here. Jonathan Sexton is clearly the premier fly half in Europe. Owen Farrell is a reliable kicker and Dan Biggar has improved as the Six Nations has progressed but neither are anywhere close to being the running/passing threat that Sexton is. Only injury can prevent him from wearing the 10 jersey in the first test. Fly half must be the position worrying Warren Gatland most at this stage.
Centres – Brian O’Driscoll – definite – Luke Marshall – unlikely
As with Sexton – I am not going to go into the merits of O’Driscoll’s inclusion too deeply. Suffice to say he showed enough throughout the championship to justify his inclusion and I would go as far as to say I would be surprised if he wasn’t made tour captain even if he may not start the first test. There will be raised eyebrows from many to see the name of Luke Marshall included as even unlikely to tour. However, given the relative lack of depth at 12, where Jamie Roberts is the only certainty at this stage, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Marshall could tour this summer. The Ulsterman is an aggressive ball carrier, has good footwork, can kick well from hand and is improving all the time. That Matt Scott is being considered surely puts Marshall up there too as he dominated his Scottish counterpart in their meeting earlier in the championship. The other options are Brad Barritt, Billy Twelvetrees and maybe even Gordon D’Arcy. I would choose Marshall over all of them at this stage.
Wings – Tommy Bowe – definite – Simon Zebo – likely – Craig Gilroy – unlikely
In my opinion Tommy Bowe is the forgotten man in the Lions wing debate. The former Osprey is a proven Lions performer, well known to WG and the most rounded winger on the islands. That he was injured for this campaign may prove to be in his favour given Ireland’s performance as long he can show good form when he returns from injury for Ulster. I certainly don’t see who will keep him out of the squad. One has to think George North and Alex Cuthbert are now guaranteed travellers after Saturday, despite Cuthbert’s defensive weakness. Other than these two though it is hard to see who else merits a place above Bowe. Chris Ashton surely hasn’t shown enough form to be included, neither Scottish winger has had a chance to show too much and the tour will probably come too soon for Christian Wade, even though he has shown himself to be a terrific finisher and a fast improving defender. It is for the same reason I would make Zebo a likely traveller. He is a good finisher and his ability to play full back is another string to his bow. I wouldn’t rule out Craig Gilroy either but struggle to see how WG could pick three Ireland wingers after this year’s championship. I’m not sure that Gilroy would really have done enough to suggest he should be chosen over Maitland or Visser either.
Full back – Rob Kearney – likely
Prior to the championship Kearney was probably a definite traveller but it is hard to think his chances have not been dented slightly by a fairly uninspiring Six Nations. Of course Kearney can point to his previous efforts and suggest that he should be included and he could certainly argue he has been the most successful full back in Europe in the past four years. But the emergence of Alex Goode and Stuart Hogg as genuine contenders has weakened Kearney’s claims. Hogg has perhaps got more press than Goode yet the Scotsman has not performed anywhere near the level of Goode throughout the championship. Hogg is a terrific runner but in the cauldron of a Lions test his basics would be severely tested and we are as yet uncertain how they would stand up. Goode on the other hand is a bit more conventional, excelling in the areas of game management and kicking rather than counter attacking although he certainly isn’t without capability in that area either. Of course at this moment it is difficult to imagine anybody other than Leigh Halfpenny starting at full back come the first test. If he were to get injured though, I would rather a choice of Goode or Kearney than Goode or Hogg and for that reason I think the Leinsterman will go and will probably improve in the Lions environment.
My Irish Lions total comes to 9, more than many of the pundits around would reckon on. The exclusion of Tommy Bowe and Paul O’Connell I think is probably the reason for this though and I think it is justifiable to expect that they will travel if fit and showing form. Indeed, provided they are clear of their injuries, it may be reasonable to suggest their absence from the Six Nations is a positive for the Lions. Certainly it would be a surprise if Ireland was sparsely represented on the tour, even if we won’t see numbers approaching the total of four years ago.
Undoubtedly there will be many twists and turns before WG announces his touring squad and we have Heineken Cup, Pro 12 and Aviva Premiership titles still to be decided. I will leave you though, with my Test 23 at this stage.
1.Healy 2.Best 3.Jones
4.AW Jones 5.Gray
6.Robshaw 7.Warburton 8.O’Brien
9.Phillips 10.Sexton
12.Roberts 13.O’Driscoll
11.North 15.Halfpenny 14.Bowe
16.Hibbard 17.Cole 18.Jenkins 19.O’Connell 20.Tipuric 21.Youngs 22.Farrell 23.Kearney
My name is Ryan Cullen and I am a 25 year old Ulster season ticket holder. I was introduced to the game around 15 years ago and have loved it ever since. I have an interest in pretty much all sports though so don’t be surprised to see a few football (Liverpool), Golfing and Racing interests (to name but a few) thrown in from time to time.
