Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
It's another rest week in the Six Nations. I wonder if there is a way they could spread the competition across seven weeks while having some matches every weekend? Two matches a week for six weeks with three matches on the final day to finish? I know that gives an advantage to the two nations who are off in Week 6 but it could be staggered over the years to make sure everyone gets it on a 3-year cycle.
But I digress...this is meant to be a preview for this weekend, best get started. Round 17 of the Pro12 takes centre stage for Irish fans, though Six Nations selection is forever lurking in the background...
********************
Friday, March 1
RaboDirectPRO12
NG Dragons v Leinster, Rodney Parade, 7pm
Again my Leinster aren't on the tellybox, again I'm annoyed about it, but I've said all there is to say on it. Have to rely on Twitter updates and that's that.
There are many curious facets to this Joe Schmidt selection, not least Fergus McFadden at 12. This is a position many Leinster fans (myself included) have wanted to see him play in on a more permanent basis, but the recent success of the Andrew Goodman/Eoin O'Malley centre pairing made me think it was worth keeping for another week, especially with a fortnight's break to come afterwards until the big RDS clashes with Glasgow and Ulster.
Instead the two are on the bench with Fads at 12 and Brendan Macken at 13. Still a strong pairing yet an untried one. Macken has always looked too good for the A team so needs some game time in the Pro12.
Another question this selection raises is that of goal-kicking. Many have suggested Ferg play at 14 for Ireland to take the tee-pressure from Paddy Jackson...but not only have Ulster guaranteed their out-half some practise, I can't see the Leinster duties being taken from Ian Madigan in Newport.
Leinster's starting pack is almost entirely “next-gen” apart from Sean Cronin and Shane Jennings who leads out the side, and it will be very interesting to see how the young second row of first cousins Flanagan and Toner get on.
Yet another telling aspect of this matchday 23 for the European Champions is the fact that the entire bench all put in good shifts last week (including all four of last Saturday night’s try-scorers) – and knowing Joe Schmidt it’s not that they have been dropped, far from it. All fifteen starters will know they have to perform or someone in form is there to take their place.
All of this leads me to believe that with the two teams above them in the standings playing at home, Leinster will feel they have to target the bonus point at Rodney Parade, something they have gotten quite good at since the turn of the year.
Which of course means the Dragons despite their indifferent form of late (that's being kind after what Glasgow did to them) will more than likely set themselves up for a thwarting role to try and grind out a result “Scotland v Ireland”-style.
I reckon Leinster won't have it all their own way, but will still get the desired result. Leinster by 14.
Scarlets v Edinburgh, Parc y Scarlets, 7:05pm
Liam Williams returns to the Scarlets lineup and not before time. Can only see this match going one way. Scarlets by 18.
Ulster v Treviso, Ravenhill, 7:05pm
Ulster fans probably won't want reminding that the Italians won this corresponding fixture at Ravenhill last season. But I'll do it anyway!
Even so, I'd have to fancy a home win in this fixture – with one “caveat” (Gerry Thornley's fave word of late)....with the announcement last Monday that Paddy Jackson will be kicking the goals, a contest that should be a comfortable occasion for the youngster to hone his craft gets kicked up a notch or two in importance.
Now, with Leinster fans who are baying for Madigan's promotion having no other rugby to watch, and the visit of the French a week away, the pressure on him gets (somewhat unfairly I must say) elevated to Heineken Cup Final/test match proportions. Hopefully the familiar surroundings will help him settle as will the experienced heads around him like Pienaar and Trimble.
In the pack, John Afoa scoots across the front row to loose head to give Declan Fitzpatrick a decent shift at 3. Stevenson and Tuohy team up in the second row while Ian Henderson gets a start at 6 – I wonder if a good display will give him a shot at edging O'Mahony next week?
As for the Pro12 leaders' opposition, we can't be sure which Treviso will show up...the one that was humbled by Leinster two weeks ago or the one that humbled Munster last weekend. To be honest, the 40-5 scoreline at the RDS was a bit hard on the Italians and with the tricky Brendan Williams back in the lineup they certainly won't be pushovers.
Still, while I fancy the visitors to put a few points on the board, I'm not sure they'll be up to it defensively for 80 minutes and Mark Anscombe's men should get the full five league points in a high-scoring encounter. Ulster by 10.
Glasgow v Cardiff Blues, Scotstoun, 7:35pm
A challenge for stattos out there...has any pro team ever secured a 4-try bonus with the bare minimum of 20 points on the scoreboard before? That's what the Warriors did last weekend courtesy of the wayward tee-shots of Peter Horne and he shifts over to the 12 position to allow for the welcome Scotstoun return of Duncan Weir. The Blues won't make things easy for them but I still fancy a home win. Glasgow by 7.
Connacht v Zebre, Sportsground, 7:45pm
For the past few weeks I have been predicting Connacht losses to avoid jinxing them...not sure I can do that this time around while keeping a straight keyboard!
One thing I notice on the Pro12 table...Connacht are currently 13 points behind Munster. A bonus point win tonight plus a win for the Ospreys at Thomond tomorrow could cut that to nine, and with a two-week break to prepare, who would rule out Eric Elwood's men from getting a result themselves in Limerick in the next round?
Maybe what I'm suggesting is fanciful...but what we shouldn't forget is that Heineken Cup qualification is based on the final Pro12 positions, and though the usual three will still probably make it through that route this season, with the Westerners laying out an ambitious but impressive plan for the future, we could see some close finishes in the “Irish Conference” in the years to come and that can only be good for the game on these shores and the Pro12 overall.
Anyway, back to this contest...Gavin Duffy moves over to the wing to accommodate Robbie Henshaw, who Keith Wood claimed last night could be a Lions bolter!
I don't know about that, but I doubt this settled Connacht side is through getting eye-catching results this season and should stretch their winning run to three games pretty handily tonight. Connacht by 20.
Premiership
Bath v Gloucester, 8pm
Worcester v London Wasps, 8pm
Top14
Bayonne v Biarritz, 7:50pm
Ulster Bank League Division 1A
Old Belvedere v Clontarf
Saturday, March 2
RaboDirectPRO12
Munster v Ospreys, Thomond Park, 6:30pm
Considering it's the middle of the Six Nations, this is still a very strong Munster lineup on paper.
But when you factor in the way they have struggled with the style of play Rob Penney is trying to introduce to the province, not to mention the peskiness of the opposition they welcome to Thomond this weekend, then this contest becomes a tough one for them as they try to bounce back from their trouncing in Treviso.
Ronan O'Gara starting at 10 will draw the attention of many, not least the Osprey back row, while Cathal Sheridan is preferred at scrumhalf to Duncan Williams. Dougie Howlett returns to the wing and claims his captains armband back from Mike Sherry, who is on the bench.
In the forwards, Dave “Killer” Kilcoyne will no doubt have been the unhappiest Irishman to learn that Cian Healy's ruling had been re-adjusted, but at least he can show us all what he's missing with a start here. Damien Varley and Stephen Archer join him in the front row.
The Ospreys themselves are missing eight players to the national squad but you can rest assured they won't be going to Limerick to make up the numbers and have plenty of threats around the park like scrumhalf Kahn Fotuali’i. Munster will need to dig deep to get a result here but I believe they will. Munster by 5.
Premiership
Leicester v Sale Sharks, 3pm
Northampton v London Irish, 3pm
Harlequins v Exeter Chiefs, 3:15pm
Top14
Stade Francais v Clermont, 2pm
Bordeaux v Agen, 5:30pm
Castres v Montpellier, 5:30pm
Mont-de-Masan v Perpignan, 5:30pm
Racing Metro v Grenoble, 5:30pm
If Bernard Jackman's French adventure is to lead him into the Top14 playoffs and next season's Heineken Cup, his side will definitely need a win here. Already four points behind Racing on the table, with Perpignan playing bottom-of-the-table Mont-de-Marsan the gap may become too wide to close with defeat. And so they get my Upset of the Week tag....Grenoble by 3.
Toulon v Toulouse, 7:45pm
Super Rugby
Chiefs v Cheetahs, 6:35am
Bulls v Western Force, 3:05pm
Sharks v Stormers, 5:10pm
Ulster Bank League Division 1A
Dolphin v UL Bohemians, 2:30pm
Lansdowne v Young Munster, 2:30pm
Shannon v Cork Con, 2:30pm
St Marys v Garryowen, 2:30pm
Sunday, March 3
Premiership
Saracens v London Welsh, 2:15pm
********************
That's it from me for another week...HarpinOnRugby will be taking Saturday & Sunday off for good behaviour and we'll be back on Monday with normal services resumed. Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are! JLP
