Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
We have now officially arrived at the business end of the provincial season, so the rugby should be less about the “Woshkabomy” and more about the “Updajumpa” as each game takes on a cup final feel. Lots of playoff jostling going on this weekend so let's get stuck in to it.
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Saturday, March 23
RaboDirectPRO12
NG Dragons v Scarlets, 2:30pm
Cardiff Blues v Ospreys, 5:15pm
Certainly can't complain when the WRU tries some marketing initiatives and this double header at the Millennium Stadium is worth a shot. It will hardly attract a full house, even with a lot to play for in both matches as it seems the Scarlets and the Ospreys will be scrapping it out for the fourth playoff spot. Smart money has to be on both to win, but with the Dragons coughing up home advantage for the greater good it may afford Simon Easterby's men the chance of a try bonus. Scarlets by 20, Ospreys by 6.
Leinster v Ulster, 6:15pm
Glasgow’s hammering of Munster last night means any kind of win for Leinster this evening puts them top of the table while the Ulstermen need a try bonus plus a hefty winning margin…though I dare say they’d be more than happy grinding out a first win over their provincial rivals in Dublin since 1999 any way they can.
And what a perfect dress rehearsal this is for Ulster’s Heineken challenge next week…having to travel to a capital city to play a team that went into the weekend in 1st place. As for Leinster…the “4 from 5” may be long gone but with the form they have shown a unique treble of Pro12, Amlin and BandI Cup is still firmly in their sights.
When the 2013/14 Pro12 fixtures were released last summer, this was the biggest eye-opener for me. Having the Leinster v Munster derby a week before the European quarterfinals seemed to be set in stone but the rise of the Ulstermen has had them thrown into the mix and rightly so.
And talk about the match that has everything!!! Provincial rivalry, oldest Irish fixture, one point between them on the table, one team on an unbeaten streak playing the last team to beat them...and of course the thing that's going to have the media in a frenzy most of all, the head-to-head between Messrs Madigan and Jackson. When it comes to that battle of out-halves, there are no predictions that can be made…we simply have to let them get at it and examine their displays afterwards.
But looking at the two starting lineups it could well be in the scrum where this match is decided. Back in December, Leinster were bullied off the ball in the set-piece yet with both Afoa and Fitzpatrick unavailable to Mark Anscombe, things may be very different on Saturday evening. Richardt Strauss returns from injury to restore Leinster's elite front row trio and Jamie Heaslip isn't done being captain this season as Leo Cullen steps back to the bench.
In the back line Brendan Macken is preferred to Eoin O'Malley at outside centre, an interesting move one week before the Wasps fixture...seemingly he has been impressing in training. Rob Kearney lines out at full back to complete a strong back three with his brother Dave and also Isa Nacewa.
Ulster have some returning internationals of their own and will hope to win the back row battle with their trio of Diack, Henry and Williams, not to mention an extra replacement back row on the bench with Henderson and Wilson set to join the fray.
They also have quite the handy back three in Payne. Trimble and Gilroy so it will be all to play for.
The second row battle has something of a “men v boys” look to it as the visitors put captain Muller and Tuohy up against Toner and Quinn Roux. But despite the 6/2 split on the Ulster bench it seems Leinster have the edge when it comes to replacements with Cronin , McGrath, Hagan and Conway all impressing of late.
This has all the hallmarks of a classic derby struggle...but even with my blue goggles off a combination of home advantage, form, Ulster's record against Leinster in Dublin plus the front row & bench matchups has me leaning heavily towards a home win, though it certainly won't be easy. Leinster by 5.
Treviso v Connacht, 7pm
Eric Elwood makes a few changes to his pack with the biggest one being the return to the starting lineup of the Leinster-bound Mike McCarthy.
Adrian Flavin and Ronan Loughney join the front row while Eoin McKeon comes in as openside flaker with George Naoupu at 8.
Connacht had a good run of form snapped by Munster at Musgrave Park last weekend and looking down the Treviso lineup I'm not sure things are going to get much better for them here. As i said last week the Italians are really hitting their stride and if they can carry their open style of rugby through to next season they could well be pushing for the top half of the Pro12 table.
Both sides are clicking into end of season mode with just four games left and no real honours to play for (though after Munster’s defeat in Glasgow the Italians will feel they have a shot at overtaking the 2-time European champions on the Pro12 table)...I expect the Westerners to give a decent enough account of themselves here but the home advantage should win through. Treviso by 9.
Premiership
Bath v London Welsh, 2:15pm
London Wasps v Saracens, 3pm
Hours before Leinster face Ulster in Ballsbridge, their respective European opponents for next week square off at Adams Park. I'm tagging this as my “Upset of the Week” as Sarries have enough of a cushion atop the Premiership to take their foot off the gas for their big season-defining quarterfinal at Twickenham. Wasps by 4.
Northampton v Leicester, 3pm
Worcester v Exeter, 3pm
Top 14
Stade Francais v Toulon, 2pm
Bordeaux-Begles v Bayonne, 5:30pm
Clermont-Auvergne v Agen, 5:30pm
You would probably think April Fools Day had come early if I told you this was a contender for my “Upset of the Week” and I fancied a win for relegation-threatened Agen at a ground where nobody but Clermont ever wins. You’d be right. Clermont by LOADS.
Mont-de-Marsan v Montpellier, 5:30pm
Perprignan v Castres, 5:30pm
Tie of the round in the Top14 as the 7th-placed USAP must win to stay in touch with the top six while Castres will be aiming for 4th spot and the home playoff that comes with it. Perpignan haven't lost in the league at home since the opening day against Toulon while Castres' road success have only been against clubs at the bottom of the table. Perpignan by 9.
Racing Métro v Toulouse, 7:40pm
Super Rugby
(click here for Stephen Humphreys’ preview)
Brumbies v Bulls, 8:40am
Cheetahs v Rebels, 3:05pm
Stormers v Crusaders, 5:10pm
Ulster Bank League Division 1A
Lansdowne v Clontarf, 2:05pm
There is no doubt that Lansdowne will be worth of their championship crown once it has been mathematically clinched, but for the league as a whole I reckon it's best to bring back the top four playoff. The RTE cameras will be there but there's little or nothing at stake with Clontarf 19 pts behind with a game in hand. I presume if Mike Ruddock's men get the win here that wraps up the title we'll at least get to see them receive the trophy. I'd be inclined to upgrade that “if” to “when”. Lansdowne by 14.
Old Belvedere v St Mary's College, 2:30pm
Sunday, March 24
Premiership
London Irish v Sale, 2:15pm
Super Rugby
Waratahs v Western Force, 5:05am
RFU Championship
Bristol v Plymouth Albion, 4:05pm
Leinster's B&I Cup QF opponents Bristol had a big win in Jersey last week that put them into the playoff spots but they will still be looking anxiously over their shoulders at Leeds who are just a point behind them with a game in hand. This is their final regular season home game and the Sky cameras are in town so they will want to produce the goods and thus can't hold too much back for the following Sunday.
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That's it from me for this week...be sure and enjoy your rugby this Easter weekend wherever you are! JLP
