A comparatively light weekend for rugby fans...though I can't make head nor tale of the “wisdom” behind scheduling so many key Ulster Bank League matches to be played at exactly the same time as Ireland face Italy in the Six Nations??? Even the Top14 clubs, who generally could care less about the national side, are taking a breather!
Anyways...here's how I see the action shaping up...
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Saturday, March 16
RBS Six Nations
Italy v Ireland, Stadio Olimpico, 2:30pm
You really do have to stretch your optimism to its outer limits when reviewing Ireland's Six Nations campaign, and the stage seems to be set for a maiden competitive defeat to the Italians this weekend.
They ran the English very close last Sunday, they have their inspirational skipper Parisse back, and of course we all know how things are going for Ireland.
We must of course take the (literally) crippling injury tally into account before we're too harsh on Declan Kidney & co...as if the “AN Other” fiasco last week wasn't enough, this time they actually delayed the announcement only for Sexton's foot tendon to go all wonky.
But as I have blogged about before more than once, the fact that players are dropping like ninepins really does make a mockery of the whole “player management” scheme which surely must be reviewed. And while they're at it, perhaps a second look at the “central contracts” scheme might be worthwhile as well.
Because now we must play a team of mostly non “anointed” players. When you look at our bench and see that Sean Cronin is the most experienced at test level you know we're in trouble!
Ideally, I'd like this team to go out with less of a regimental mindset and more of a mind to focus on basics and try to beat the Italians with simple, straightforward, no frills rugby. Unfortunately I feel with the side Kidney has been forced to select together with the fact that even though there's no trophy at stake it's yet another “must win” game, we'll see the match fall into an all-too-familiar pattern...bright start, nailbiting/hair-pulling finish.
That our bench is so light on caps will put his substitutions under even more scrutiny than usual...hopefully he will be able to make decisions based on what's happening on the pitch as opposed to what was drawn up on a chalkboard pre-match.
This could very well be the last time we see Heaslip as captain...it's a crying shame that it has gone this way but certainly the blame for the repercussions does not entirely land on his shoulders. And with a cruel sense of irony he is up against the same ref in Rome as he was in Dublin for his first time leading out the side...and Wayne Barnes doesn't exactly strike me as a Jamie fan.
Still, I'm going to go for an Ireland win. Call it wishful thinking. Call it naivety. Call it whatever you want. I feel there will be many penalty opportunities and more than one yellow card which should open out the game and once we can limit the early errors and establish a decent lead, I'm counting on the bench to come through for us and finish this campaign on a bit of a high. Ireland by 6.
Wales v England, Millennium Stadium, 5pm
Should Wales win by 7 points, there's a few ifs ands or buts to be worked out before we know who are champions. But anything greater, and they retain their title. Anything less, and it's England, who of course would much rather win themselves to secure the Grand Slam.
This has all the makings of a classic struggle, but whatever you do, don't expect classic rugby. I fully expect Stuart Lancaster's England to go to Cardiff and execute the rugby version of soccer's “parking the bus”. If the onlooking Warren Gatland learns anything about how his Lions will shape up on the day, it will be how good they are at tackling.
Of course the most fascinating battle will be in the back-row with tour candidates aplenty in each position and not all necessarily playing in their favourite one. Warburton seems to be finding his form at the right time and it was interesting that the captaincy was given to Jenkins rather than back to him.
I'm expecting a low-scoring affair which the Halfpenny v Farrell placekicking battle may well decide, but if there is to be a try, I expect it to be a Welsh one (Cuthbert against 14 men once again?) which means I reckon they'll prevail, and by enough to lift the trophy.Wales by 10.
France v Scotland, Stade de France, 8pm
Will Irish viewers be bothered to watch this one? If we lose in Rome a French victory gives us the dreaded kitchen implement and nobody wants to see that happen...should we beat the Italians we could well be rugby-ed out after the Cardiff match anyway.
Clearly PSA saw something in Michalak to justify retaining him at 10...the equalising conversion in Dublin maybe? If so he must have stopped watching as Freddie went on to kick away their chances of victory at the death.
The Scots will have to go into this match smelling some blood...you'll never get a better chance to win in Paris, that's for sure. Their only hope the way I see it is for Michalak & co to continuously hand opportunities to their dangerous back three...certainly not out of the question, but I still reckon the home side will do it. France by 12.
Super Rugby
Crusaders v Bulls, 6:35am
Reds v Western Force, 8:40am
Sharks v Brumbies, 3:05pm
Ulster Bank League Division 1A
UL Bohemians v Clontarf
Dolphin v Shannon
Old Belvedere v Garryowen
Young Munster v Cork Constitution
Lansdowne v St Mary's, Aviva Stadium, 4pm
One of the few ties to make allowances for the Six Nations, I'm tagging this as my Upset of the Week – the champions elect to fall to the reigning champions. Mary's by 5.
Sunday, March 17
Womens' Six Nations
Italy v Ireland, Parabiago, Milan
No offence to my Welsh readers, but if I had to choose some foreign soil to win a Grand Slam, Milan would certainly rank ahead of Cardiff! What a campaign it has been for the girls. First there was the trouncing of England. Then came the triple crown. Then last weekend came the championship, thanks to England beating these very same Italians that Philip Doyle's side must now face on, of all days, St Patrick's Day. The scene really does seem set for even more history to be made, but you certainly won't see this blogger doing anything to jinx it. PREDICTION WITHHELD FOR SUPERSTITIOUS REASONS.
LV= Cup final
Harlequins v Sale Sharks, Sixways, 3pm
For a country that is apparently very concerned about Heineken Cup qualification, the English are certainly free with one of their slots, awarding it to the winners of a competition that is specifically played during international weekends. A win for Sale over a Quins team with much more important trophies on their minds will qualify them for Europe's premier competition provided they don't get relegated...surely an unjust return for their poor season? I don't think they'll do it anyway. Quins by 10.
Monday, March 18
Schools Cup Finals
Munster : Crescent College v Rockwell, Thomond Park, 2pm
Ulster : Methodist v RBAI, Ravenhill, 3pm
Leinster : Blackrock College v St Michaels, RDS, 4pm
The Jesuits may have gotten the Papacy, but they'll need to rely on Crescent College to give them any hope of schools rugby glory this season otherwise it's the Holy Ghost Fathers who will take the major spoils in both Leinster & Munster.
We have been following the Leinster Schools closely on HoR this season thanks mostly to excellent coverage of Setanta Sports on telly and Heave on Dublin South FM. So when I head to the RDS on Monday I'll know a good bit about both teams, and one thing is for sure it should be an excellent contest. Check my article on BlueMagic.ie for more about the two sides, but as for a prediction, my heart rules my head this time around – it's time for number 67, baby!. Rock by 4.
As for the Munster clash, I know nothing about the two teams barring the fact that they met earlier in the competition (it operates a “back-door” system apparently) and Rockwell emerged on top.
Up north, there's a Belfast derby between the Ulster Schools Cup's two most successful teams as holders Methodist face RBAI at Ravenhill.
Congrats by the way to Athlone's Marist College for their victory in Connacht. I'm pretty sure I know why they don't have a play-off between the four provincial winners for a national title but it would still be a great spectacle were they ever to introduce one.
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That's it from me for this week...be sure and enjoy your rugby this Paddy's Day weekend wherever you are! JLP
