Time to stick on the green-coloured glasses and look at the weekend's rugby action
Leinster are on such a good run of late it's almost a shame the Pro12 had to take a two-week break! But however the Irish team is doing I can never grow tired of Six Nations rugby, and as always there is plenty to look forward to this weekend so let's have a look...
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Saturday, March 9
RBS Six Nations
Scotland v Wales, Murrayfield, 2:30pm
Usually Irish fans can watch a match like this feeling no pressure at all...sadly this could well be an exception. Less than two weeks after our Murrayfield Misery I have a feeling the Welsh may well give us an 80-minute demonstration of what we should have done.
Much was made about the performance of Scottish loose-head Ryan Grant but all that could be undone once he packs down against the wily Adam Jones. And Euan Murray may be available for selection this time but I feel Scott Johnson may find his new charges will have a tough time against the front row from his old one.
Also it will be interesting to see how the Welsh lineout copes with Jim Hamilton's handwaving having had time to work on it. If we see a tendency to throw to the front and they are succesful it will be another kick in the teeth of the Irish brains trust.
Wales have also shown us how to make the tough call on the leadership front...Sam Warburton returns to the starting lineup but the man in possession of the armband Ryan Jones retains it as a reward for his form.
With Dan Biggar growing into his test 10 role in every game, unless the Scottish back three get presented with too many open-field opportunities I reckon the Welsh will achieve a rare Six Nations feat – three away wins in a row. Wales by 12.
Ireland v France, Aviva Stadium, 5pm
I spend so much time trying to analyse Ireland's players and coaching staff that sometimes I forget I'm also a fan...I put that hat back on during the week for one blog post.
But while I will make sure and support the team no matter what happens in our final two matches, I can still outline what I'll be looking for from the lads...and to be perfectly honest, it's not even necessarily a win.
Paul O'Connell, Richardt Strauss, Stephen Ferris, Tommy Bowe, Jonny Sexton, Gordon DArcy, Simon Zebo...they are all names few test sides could do without. It would be unfair on Declan Kidney and indeed the entire team to ignore their absence when discussing their fortunes.
But my argument is that with the professional game now well established around the rugby world, I'm really not so sure we can play the “small player pool” card anymore.
Of course test rugby is the pinnacle of the sport and I fully appreciate that no matter how talented a youngster may be, until they prove themselves at the highest level we'll never know how truly great they are. But sometimes I wonder do we go too far with the “nurturing” on these shores?
I also wonder how Sexton's career path would have gone had Felipe Contepomi not gotten injured in Croke Park back in 2009. Few would doubt that the HCup semi & final were games of test-level intensity and Sexton showed us all he belonged there, but if it was left to his “handlers” when would he have gotten the chance?
Same goes for Paddy Jackson, Ian Madigan, Luke Marshall, Simon Zebo, Ian Henderson, Craig Gilroy...I'm of course delighted that they are getting their chances in this campaign, but the molly-coddling system is still in place and who knows when they would be breaking through to the team were it not for injuries.
Of course I'm not suggesting that we put out a team made up of “bolters” just for the sake of it. But the players in the test team, even BOD, need to know the coach is willing to replace them if they're not performing no matter who is next in line. That's kind of how team sports should work!
Anyway...this Saturday we see Jackson rightly retained as Ireland's starting 10 and Leinster's Ian Madigan named to the bench. By dropping ROG altogether (rightly called but terribly handled) Kidney has seemed to suggest that the results don't matter from these matches. If that is true, there should be a 50/30 or 60/20 split in pitch time for the two out-halves.
The same goes for the other youngsters on the bench...Kilcoyne, Henderson, even Archer must see a decent amount of action whatever is happening.
This is a strong but wounded French lineup we face. Michalak hasn't exactly lit up this Six Nations so far but there's still plenty of threats around the park...Luke Marshall will have his work cut out against Fofana, Maxime Médard is back in the side, Picamoles is part of a strong back row. They will be going all out for victory, of that there can be no doubt.
But even though their days are probably numbered, if this Kidney coaching ticket wants to up its profile, simply selecting youngsters won't be enough – we need to know they are not only preparing a 23-man squad for an 80-minute battle, but also establishing a wider panel of players that can bring us forward to RWC2015.
Because of this desire to see a big picture approach, I'm going to go for a French win...and if I see a decent display on the pitch together with some joined-up thinking from coaches through to the senior players, I'll be the first to defend them against the barrage of criticism that will surely be flung at them. On the other hand if it's more of the same from Murrayfield, it will be me who does most of the flinging. France by 7.
Ulster Bank League, Division 1A
Dolphin v Young Munster, 2:30pm
Bring back the top four playoff, I say. Possibly Dolphin might need the points here to get them that bit further away from the relegation zone but apart from that there's nothing to be gained here but Cork/Limerick bragging rights.
Six Nations B
Georgia v Spain
Portugal v Russia
Belgium v Romania
Georgia and Romania have made the early running in this Tier2 competition with three wins out of three each so far, but it's not how the table finishes this May that matters...the standings are carried forward to next year and only then will Ireland know who joins us in our World Cup pool (it's whoever finishes second).
Top 14
They gotta squeeze their 26-match schedule in somehow so the Top14 goes yet again on this Six Nations weekend. Top tie seems to be 2nd Clermont v 4th Castres though anyone who bets against Les Jaunards at home needs their head checked. Also Bernard Jackman’s Grenoble (starting to think that’s their full name!) could see their playoff hopes disappear for good if they lose to a Perpignan side who also have top six aspirations.
Agen v Bayonne, 2pm
Perpignan v Grenoble, 2pm
Stade Francais v Mont-de-Marsan, 2pm
Toulon v Biarritz, 2pm
Toulouse v Bordeaux-Begles, 2pm
Clermont Auvergne v Castres,, 7:40pm
Super Rugby
(click here for @shumpty's preview)
Stormers v Sharks, 3:05pm
Southern Kings v Sharks, 5:10pm
LV= Cup Semifinal
Harlequins v Bath, 12:15pm
Sunday, March 10
RBS Six Nations
England v Italy, Twickenham, 3pm
There can be no doubt that Italy are a different team without Sergio Parisse and the reduction in his ban will give them a lift.
But then again he was on the park when they parted like a blue sea at Murrayfield in round two, so you have to wonder just how much of a resistance they will be able to put up against a Grand Slam-chasing English side on Mother's Day.
It will be very interesting to see how Stuart Lancaster's side approaches this game. He has them hard-wired for trench warfare, yet this battle could well be settled with a more direct approach.
At Twickenham against a team in line for another wooden spoon, England should have this wrapped up by halftime. And with Farrell forced to the sidelines and Toby Flood at the helm, it will be very interesting to see just how they set about doing that.
In the pack the Lawes-at-6 experiment didn't work and James Haskell comes back, though still at 6 while Tom Wood stays at 8. Vunipola gets his first start while hooker Tom will be the only Youngs on the pitch as his brother Ben joins Dylan Hartley on the bench.
Still...the chances are that whatever the personnel, the English will revert to the type that has gotten them this far, so if they do pull away from their opposition it may not be until deep into the second half.
The margin of victory will be important, however. Going into this weekend's matches they have a 17-point edge in points difference over Wales. Provided they beat Italy and Scotland respectively as they should, whatever that margin is at full-time on Sunday will determine the task the Welsh will have to nick the championship off of them.
If that margin is still around the 17 mark come kickoff in the Millennium Stadium, the Welsh will have to be strong favourites. I'm not sure the Italians have another fourth-quarter display in them like the one that beat France, though. England by 23.
Super Rugby
Blues v Bulls, 10am
LV= Cup Semifinal
Sale Sharks v Saracens, 1pm
Anyone else see what's missing from the semifinal lineup of the Anglo-Welsh Cup? Yep, it's Welsh teams. This will be the fifth year in a row a region won't make the final. Hope being in the competition is worth the money for them! I’m going for the Sharks here as my Upset Of The Week as Sarries have slightly more important competitions on their mind. Sale by 6.
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I’d better leave it there so I can go out and see if my car has been clamped outside the Shelbourne...be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are! JLP
